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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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ESD | Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 17 Feb 2020

Research article | 17 Feb 2020

Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land

Lea Beusch et al.

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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105,, 2019. a
Alexeeff, S. E., Nychka, D., Sain, S. R., and Tebaldi, C.: Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments, Climatic Change, 146, 319–333,, 2018. a, b, c, d, e
Allen, M. R. and Stott, P. A.: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: Theory, Clim. Dynam., 21, 477–491,, 2003. a
Bao, J., McInerney, D. J., and Stein, M. L.: A spatial-dependent model for climate emulation, Environmetrics, 27, 396–408,, 2016. a, b, c
Beusch, L., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Emulating Earth System Model Temperatures, in: Proceedings of the 8th International Workshop on Climate Informatics: CI 2018, 19–21 September 2018, Boulder, CO, USA, edited by: Chen, C., Cooley, D., Runge, J., and Szekely, E., NCAR Technical Note, Boulder, 41–44,, 2018. a
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable to study the climate system but expensive to run. Here, we present a statistical tool which emulates ESMs at a negligible computational cost by creating stochastic realizations of yearly land temperature field time series. Thereby, 40 ESMs are considered, and for each ESM, a single simulation is required to train the tool. The resulting ESM-specific realizations closely resemble ESM simulations not employed during training at point to regional scales.
Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable to study the climate system but expensive to run....
Final-revised paper