Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD

Research article

18 Jul 2025
Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds
Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1153–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025, 2025
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18 Jul 2025
Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors
Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1135–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025, 2025
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18 Jul 2025
Bridging Science and Practice on Multi-Hazard Risk Drivers: Stakeholder Insights from Five Pilot Studies in Europe
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padron, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Jul 2025
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025
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17 Jul 2025
A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: application to relationships between atmospheric, oceanic and marine biogeochemical variables
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025, 2025
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17 Jul 2025
Climate-related signals in the GV7-C ice core from East Antarctica for 1782–2013 CE: Potential relevance to climate and teleconnections between tropics and Antarctica
Yalalt Nyamgerel, Yeongcheol Han, Soon Do Hur, Hyemi Kim, Songyi Kim, Jangil Moon, Barbara Stenni, and Jeonghoon Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Jul 2025
On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Jul 2025
Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025
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14 Jul 2025
A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content
Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025, 2025
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11 Jul 2025
| Highlight paper
Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics
Eric D. Galbraith, Abdullah Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 979–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
08 Jul 2025
Trends and spatial variation of oceanic dimethyl sulfide under a warming climate revealed by an artificial neural network model
Lyu Yan and Wei-Lei Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3185,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3185, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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08 Jul 2025
Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation
Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Jul 2025
The Preseason Warming of the Indian Ocean Resulting in Soybean Failure in U.S.
Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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01 Jul 2025
Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index
Joao C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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27 Jun 2025
A simple physical model for glacial cycles
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025
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26 Jun 2025
Peat oxic and anoxic controls of Sphagnum decomposition rates in the Holocene Peatland Model decomposition module estimated from litterbag data
Henning Teickner, Edzer Pebesma, and Klaus-Holger Knorr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 891–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025, 2025
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24 Jun 2025
Historical Climate and Future Projection in the North Atlantic and Arctic: Insights from EC-Earth3 High-Resolution Simulations
Mehdi Pasha Karami, Torben Koenigk, Shiyu Wang, René Navarro Labastida, Tim Kruschke, Aude Carreric, Pablo Ortega, Klaus Wyser, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Agatha M. de Boer, Marie Sicard, and Aitor Aldama Campino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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23 Jun 2025
Simulating regional impacts of irrigation on the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle using Earth System Model physics
Pierre Tiengou, Agnès Ducharne, and Frédérique Cheruy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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16 Jun 2025
Understanding European Heatwaves with Variational Autoencoders
Aytaç Paçal, Birgit Hassler, Katja Weigel, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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16 Jun 2025
Improving Terrestrial Carbon Flux Simulations With Machine Learning and Global Earth Observations
Christian Seiler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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12 Jun 2025
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes
Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 869–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025, 2025
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12 Jun 2025
Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments
Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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11 Jun 2025
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
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11 Jun 2025
Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 841–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025, 2025
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04 Jun 2025
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025
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04 Jun 2025
The effect of noise on the stability of convection in a conceptual model of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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02 Jun 2025
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model
Bertrand Decharme and Jeanne Colin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 729–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025, 2025
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28 May 2025
Enhanced Climate Reproducibility Testing with False Discovery Rate Correction
Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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27 May 2025
Setting up the physical principles of resilience in a model of the Earth System
Orfeu Bertolami and Magnus Nyström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2163,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2163, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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21 May 2025
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics
Stéphane Vannitsem, X. San Liang, and Carlos A. Pires
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025, 2025
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19 May 2025
Catalogue of Strong Nonlinear Surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6
Joran R. Angevaare and Sybren S. Drijfhout
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2039,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2039, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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15 May 2025
On defining climate by means of an ensemble
Gábor Drótos and Tamás Bódai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2030,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2030, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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06 May 2025
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm
Jerome Sauer, François Massonnet, Giuseppe Zappa, and Francesco Ragone
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 683–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025, 2025
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06 May 2025
Unravelling the future role of internal variability in South Asian near-surface wind speed
Cheng Shen, Hui-Shuang Yuan, Zhi-Bo Li, Jinling Piao, Youli Chang, and Deliang Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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05 May 2025
Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 667–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, 2025
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05 May 2025
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2,https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
Short summary Chief editor
30 Apr 2025
Remote carbon cycle changes are overlooked impacts of land cover and land management changes
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
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24 Apr 2025
Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery
Kevin Debeire, Lisa Bock, Peer Nowack, Jakob Runge, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 607–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-607-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-607-2025, 2025
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24 Apr 2025
Characteristics of Agricultural Droughts in CMIP6 Historical Simulations and Future Projections
Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1517,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1517, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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23 Apr 2025
| Highlight paper
High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw
Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 565–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-565-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
23 Apr 2025
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea
Jakub Miluch, Wenyan Zhang, Jan Harff, Andreas Groh, Peter Arlinghaus, and Celine Denker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 585–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025, 2025
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17 Apr 2025
Regional climate imprints of recent historical changes in anthropogenic Near Term Climate Forcers
Alba Santos-Espeso, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Pablo Ortega, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Markus G. Donat, Margarida Samso Cabré, and Saskia Loosveldt Tomas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1286,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1286, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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17 Apr 2025
Hysteresis of phytoplankton communities over Sub-polar North Atlantic to CO2 forcing
Dong-Geon Lee, Eun Young Kwon, Jonghun Kam, and Jong-Seong Kug
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1474,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1474, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Apr 2025
A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025
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11 Apr 2025
The Gaia hypothesis revisited: Introducing an Organic Theory of Gaia
Carlos de Castro and Arthur Lauer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1532,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1532, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 4 comments)
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10 Apr 2025
Causal Mechanisms of Subpolar Gyre Variability in CMIP6 Models
Swinda K. J. Falkena, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Anna S. von der Heydt
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.16541,https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.16541, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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04 Apr 2025
Spatiotemporal variation of growth-stage specific concurrent climate extremes and their yield impacts for rice in southern China
Ran Sun, Tao Ye, Yiqing Liu, Weihang Liu, and Shuo Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1393,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1393, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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03 Apr 2025
Changes in extreme precipitation patterns over the Greater Antilles and teleconnection with large-scale sea surface temperature
Carlo Destouches, Arona Diedhiou, Sandrine Anquetin, Benoit Hingray, Armand Pierre, Dominique Boisson, and Adermus Joseph
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 497–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025, 2025
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03 Apr 2025
An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change
John D. Jakeman, Mauro Perego, D. Thomas Seidl, Tucker A. Hartland, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Stephen F. Price
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-513-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-513-2025, 2025
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28 Mar 2025
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: Development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1306,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1306, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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28 Mar 2025
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21,000 years
Thomas Kenji Akabane, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Paulo Eduardo De Oliveira, Jennifer Watling, Ana Carolina Carnaval, Vincent Hanquiez, Dailson José Bertassoli Jr., Thaís Aparecida Silva, Marília H. Shimizu, and Anne-Laure Daniau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1424,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1424, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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27 Mar 2025
Multi-decadal initialized climate predictions using the EC-Earth3 global climate model
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, Etienne Tourigny, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1208,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1208, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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26 Mar 2025
Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes
Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus Gabriel Donat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-940,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-940, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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25 Mar 2025
Storylines of Future Drought in the Face of Uncertain Rainfall Projections: a New Zealand Case Study
Hamish Lewis, Luke J. Harrington, Peter B. Gibson, and Neelesh Rampal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1247,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1247, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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21 Mar 2025
Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC
Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-758,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-758, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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17 Mar 2025
Evaluating biogeophysical sensitivities to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models using observational constraints
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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14 Mar 2025
Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled
Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, 2025
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13 Mar 2025
Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling
Yongchao Zeng, Calum Brown, Joanna Raymond, Mohamed Byari, Ronja Hotz, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 423–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025, 2025
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12 Mar 2025
Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market
Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 411–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-411-2025, 2025
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06 Mar 2025
Impacts of North American forest cover changes on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation
Victoria M. Bauer, Sebastian Schemm, Raphael Portmann, Jingzhi Zhang, Gesa K. Eirund, Steven J. De Hertog, and Jan Zibell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 379–409, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-379-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-379-2025, 2025
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04 Mar 2025
Freshwater input from glacier melt outside Greenland alters modeled northern high-latitude ocean circulation
Jan-Hendrik Malles, Ben Marzeion, and Paul G. Myers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 347–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-347-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-347-2025, 2025
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27 Feb 2025
CMIP6 Multi-model Assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight Storm Activity
Daniel Krieger and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-111,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-111, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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26 Feb 2025
Driving sustainability transitions through financial tipping points
Nadia Ameli, Hugues Chenet, Max Falkenberg, Sumit Kothari, Jamie Rickman, and Francesco Lamperti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-333-2025, 2025
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26 Feb 2025
Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity
Kate Marvel and Mark Webb
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 317–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025, 2025
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18 Feb 2025
Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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18 Feb 2025
Joint evolution of irrigation, the water cycle and water resources under a strong climate change scenario from 1950 to 2100 in the IPSL-CM6
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, and Josefine Ghattas
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-41,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-41, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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11 Feb 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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10 Feb 2025
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-342,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-342, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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10 Feb 2025
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and standardized precipitation index by constraining transient climate model simulations
Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-319,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-319, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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06 Feb 2025
Carbon cycle and climate feedbacks under CO2 and non-CO2 overshoot pathways
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, 2025
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04 Feb 2025
Large scale climate response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica to reduced ice sheets
Katherine Power, Fernanda Matos, and Qiong Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4061,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4061, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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03 Feb 2025
The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025
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03 Feb 2025
Evaluating Dynamic Global Vegetation Models in China: Challenges in capturing trends in Leaf Area and Gross Primary Productivity, but effective seasonal variation representation
Anzhou Zhao, Ziyang Li, Lidong Zou, Jianshen Wu, Kayla Stan, and Arturo Sanchez-Azofeif
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-44,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-44, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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30 Jan 2025
Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Arie Staal, Pim Meijer, Maganizo Kruger Nyasulu, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, and Stefan C. Dekker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 215–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-215-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-215-2025, 2025
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28 Jan 2025
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority
Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 189–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, 2025
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27 Jan 2025
Past, Present, and Future Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP6 Ensembles
Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-17,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-17, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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24 Jan 2025
Global Stability and Tipping Point Prediction of the Coral Reef Ecosystem
Li Xu, Denis Patterson, Simon Asher Levin, and Jin Wang
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.12.17.627631,https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.12.17.627631, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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23 Jan 2025
Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario
Konstanze Haubner, Heiko Goelzer, and Andreas Born
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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23 Jan 2025
Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels
Min Cui, Duoying Ji, and Yangxin Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4100,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4100, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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22 Jan 2025
Dynamic vegetation reveals unavoidable climate feedbacks and their dependence on climate mean state
Pascale Braconnot, Nicolas Viovy, and Olivier Marti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4075, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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