Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD

Research article

20 Mar 2026
Global hyper-resolution modeling of historical and future groundwater dynamics
Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Nicole Gyakowah Otoo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jarno Verkaik, Daniel Zamrsky, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-804,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-804, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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19 Mar 2026
Acceleration by climate change of global economic inflation
Timothy J. Garrett and Matheus R. Grasselli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1304,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1304, 2026
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17 Mar 2026
Snowball Earth transitions from Last Glacial Maximum conditions provide an independent upper limit on Earth's climate sensitivity
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Johannes Hörner, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 303–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026, 2026
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17 Mar 2026
Ocean and marine heatwaves responses to multiple net-zero worlds
Isaline Bossert, Roland Séférian, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Thibault Guinaldo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-993,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-993, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Mar 2026
Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections
Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 291–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-291-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-291-2026, 2026
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11 Mar 2026
Exploring divergent long-term stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with the G2-SAI and ARISE-hybrid experiments
Walker Raymond Lee, Simone Tilmes, and Ewa M. Bednarz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1004,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1004, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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11 Mar 2026
Decadal predictions of wind, solar and compound power indicators to support the European renewable energy sector
Sara Moreno-Montes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Matías Olmo, Sushovan Ghosh, Verónica Torralba, and Albert Soret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1205,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1205, 2026
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05 Mar 2026
Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation
Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026, 2026
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05 Mar 2026
An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields
Gosha Geogdzhayev, Andre N. Souza, Glenn R. Flierl, and Raffaele Ferrari
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026, 2026
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04 Mar 2026
Past, present, and future variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CMIP6 ensembles
Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 209–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026, 2026
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03 Mar 2026
Assessing Earth system responses in deep mitigation scenarios with activity-driven simulation of carbon dioxide removal
Jörg Schwinger, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Raffaele Bernadello, Momme Butenschön, Timothée Bourgeois, Matthew J. Gidden, Shraddha Gupta, Hanna Lee, Nadine Mengis, Yiannis Moustakis, Helene Muri, Lars Nieradzik, Daniele Peano, Julia Pongratz, Pascal Sauer, Etienne Tourigny, and David Wårlind
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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02 Mar 2026
Atmospheric river trajectories organise along a global transport network
Tobias Braun, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Norbert Marwan, Juergen Kurths, Johannes Quaas, Albert Díaz-Guilera, Luis Gimeno, and Miguel D. Mahecha
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7482510/v2,https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7482510/v2, 2026
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27 Feb 2026
Toward robust fine-scale decadal precipitation forecasts through dynamically consistent subsampling
Joanne Couallier, Didier Swingedouw, Charlotte Sakarovitch, and Ramdane Alkama
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-573,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-573, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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27 Feb 2026
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability since 1850 is largely externally forced
Yongyao Liang, Ed Hawkins, Gerard McCarthy, and Peter Thorne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-699,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-699, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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26 Feb 2026
Impacts of Simulated Coastal Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement on the Seasonal Cycle of the Air-Sea CO2 Flux and Surface Ocean pCO2 in European Waters under a Low- and a High-Emission Scenario
Chiara Ciscato, Neha Mehendale, Tronje P. Kemena, Sandy Avrutin, and David P. Keller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-926,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-926, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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24 Feb 2026
Respecting the boundaries: balancing climate adaptation and Earth system resilience
Bastian Ott, Jonathan F. Donges, and Johan Rockström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-79,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-79, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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18 Feb 2026
Informing low-order models of climate tipping elements using outputs from higher-complexity Earth system models
Nils Bochow, Jonathan Krönke, Julius Garbe, and Nico Wunderling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-614,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-614, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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11 Feb 2026
An Information-Based World-Earth System Resilience Index
John M. Anderies, Max Bechthold, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Nico Wunderling, Wolfram Barfuss, and Johan Rockström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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10 Feb 2026
The Influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on European Summer Climate: Competing Mechanisms and Implications for Prediction
Ned C. Williams, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6330,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6330, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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09 Feb 2026
Critical freshwater forcing for AMOC tipping in climate models – compensation matters
Oliver Mehling, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6215,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6215, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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04 Feb 2026
Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation
Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 167–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-167-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-167-2026, 2026
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03 Feb 2026
| Highlight paper
The largest crop production shocks: magnitude, causes and frequency
Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 151–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026, 2026
Short summary Editorial statement
30 Jan 2026
Setting up the physical principles of resilience in a model of the Earth System
Orfeu Bertolami and Magnus Nyström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 141–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-141-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-141-2026, 2026
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30 Jan 2026
Effect of a Bering Strait Closure on AMOC Resilience in a Climate Box Model
Jelle Soons, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6565,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6565, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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30 Jan 2026
The six-year cycle in atmospheric angular momentum: robustness, zonal-wind structure, and implications for Earth rotation
Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Rodrigo Abarca-del-Rio, Veronique Dehant, Mioara Mandea, Severine Rosat, and Nicolas Gillet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-82,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-82, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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28 Jan 2026
Regional contrasts of ecosystem productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 growth across East Asia
Yun-Soo Na, Sang-Wook Yeh, and Jong-Seong Kug
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-353,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-353, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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26 Jan 2026
Benchmarking Conditioners in Liang–Kleeman Information Flow: Application to Land–Atmosphere Interactions
Fareeha Siddique, Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, Guojie Wang, David Docquier, and Stéphane Vannitsem
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-267,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-267, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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21 Jan 2026
Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance
Kyriaki Bimpiri, Thomas Hocking, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-163,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-163, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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20 Jan 2026
Contributions of supraglacial lakes to the Greenland Ice Sheet melting
Alessandro Cotronei, Ulrike Feudel, and Angelika Humbert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6334,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6334, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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16 Jan 2026
A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation
Christopher B. Womack, Glenn Flierl, Shahine Bouabid, Andre N. Souza, Paolo Giani, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Noelle E. Selin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 107–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026, 2026
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14 Jan 2026
Characteristics of agricultural droughts in CMIP6 historical simulations and future projections
Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 81–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026, 2026
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13 Jan 2026
Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario
Konstanze Haubner, Heiko Goelzer, and Andreas Born
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 57–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-57-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-57-2026, 2026
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07 Jan 2026
Seamless climate information from months to multiple years: constraining decadal predictions with seasonal predictions and past observations, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026, 2026
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07 Jan 2026
Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming
Rebecca M. Varney, Daniel Hooke, Norman J. Steinert, T. Luke Smallman, Camilla Mathison, and Eleanor J. Burke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6075, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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06 Jan 2026
Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction
Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-23-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-23-2026, 2026
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05 Jan 2026
CMIP6 multi-model assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight storm activity
Daniel Krieger and Ralf Weisse
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1-2026, 2026
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30 Dec 2025
New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models
Andrew J. Nicoll, Hannah M. Christensen, Chris Huntingford, and Doug Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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28 Dec 2025
Projected elevation-dependent warming in the Alps depicted with surface energy balance trends
Ian Castellanos, Martin Ménégoz, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Chantal Staquet, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6211,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6211, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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22 Dec 2025
| Highlight paper
Bridging science and practice on multi-hazard risk drivers: stakeholder insights from five pilot studies in Europe
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2295–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025, 2025
Short summary Editorial statement
21 Dec 2025
Underestimated Future Arctic Ocean Warming due to Unresolved Marine Heatwaves at Low Resolution
Ruijian Gou, Yaocheng Deng, Yingzhe Cui, Qi Shu, Hong Wang, Shengpeng Wang, Lixin Wu, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5296,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5296, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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18 Dec 2025
The effect of noise on the stability of convection in a conceptual model of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2273–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2273-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2273-2025, 2025
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18 Dec 2025
How polar-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level
Carley E. Iles, Bjørn H. Samset, and Marianne T. Lund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2253-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2253-2025, 2025
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17 Dec 2025
Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes
Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus G. Donat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2225–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025, 2025
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10 Dec 2025
Joint evolution of irrigation, the water cycle and water resources under a strong climate change scenario from 1950 to 2100 in the IPSL-CM6
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, and Josefine Ghattas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2201–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2201-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2201-2025, 2025
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08 Dec 2025
Strong intensification of extreme fire weather in Europe under 3 °C compared to 2 °C global warming
A. Serkan Bayar, Joaquim G. Pinto, Célia M. Gouveia, and Alexandre M. Ramos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6004,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6004, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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08 Dec 2025
Simulating the impact of an AMOC weakening on the Antarctic Ice Sheet using a coupled climate and ice-sheet model
Anna Höse, Moritz Kreuzer, Willem Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, and Georg Feulner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5128,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5128, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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05 Dec 2025
Regional climate imprints of recent historical changes in anthropogenic Near Term Climate Forcers
Alba Santos-Espeso, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Pablo Ortega, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Markus G. Donat, Margarida Samso Cabré, and Saskia Loosveldt Tomas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025, 2025
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05 Dec 2025
The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US
Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2187–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025, 2025
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05 Dec 2025
Climate extremes limiting the growth of East Asian mangroves for future nature-based solutions
Ran Chen, Jin-Soo Kim, Jung-Eun Chu, Hyo-Jeong Kim, Bora Lee, Sujong Jeong, and Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5805,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5805, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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04 Dec 2025
Soil thermal memory regulates event-scale precipitation recycling lag in a dryland environment
Ruolin Li, Yang Cui, and Qi Feng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5752,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5752, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Dec 2025
Large impact of extreme precipitation on projected blue-green water shares
Simon P. Heselschwerdt, Thorsten Wagener, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Anna M. Ukkola, Yannis Markonis, Yuting Yang, and Peter Greve
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5896,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5896, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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03 Dec 2025
Unexpected land-surface warming following a low-to-moderate forcing hypothetical nuclear war
Anson Ka Hei Cheung, Paul J. Kushner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Zhihong Zhuo, and Marguerite L. Brown
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5650,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5650, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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28 Nov 2025
Quantifying Resilience in Non-Autonomous and Stochastic Earth System Dynamics with Application to Glacial-Interglacial Cycles
Jakob Harteg, Nico Wunderling, and Jonathan Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5058,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5058, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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27 Nov 2025
A Deep Learning Framework for Chlorophyll Prediction in Large Marine Ecosystems: Benchmarking with a Dynamic Model and Implications for Fish Catch Forecasts
Ji-Sook Park, Jong-Yeon Park, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jeong-Hwan Kim, and Woo Jin Jeon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5673,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5673, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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24 Nov 2025
On the foundation of the α-β-γ approach to carbon-climate feedbacks
Christian H. Reick and Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça
External preprint server, https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0011-F3E7-6,https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0011-F3E7-6, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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21 Nov 2025
Dynamic vegetation highlights first-order climate feedbacks and their dependence on the climate mean state
Pascale Braconnot, Nicolas Viovy, and Olivier Marti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2113–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2113-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2113-2025, 2025
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21 Nov 2025
Evaluating biogeophysical sensitivities to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models using observational constraints
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2137–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025, 2025
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20 Nov 2025
A saddle-node bifurcation may be causing the AMOC collapse in the Community Earth System Model
René M. van Westen, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2063–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025, 2025
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20 Nov 2025
Irreversible phytoplankton community shifts over Subpolar North Atlantic in response to CO2 forcing
Dong-Geon Lee, Eun Young Kwon, Jonghun Kam, and Jong-Seong Kug
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2101–2111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2101-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2101-2025, 2025
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20 Nov 2025
| Highlight paper
Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system
Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark S. Williamson, and Peter Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2087–2100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025, 2025
Short summary Editorial statement
20 Nov 2025
Ensemble simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum marine biogeochemistry and atmospheric pCO2 drawdown due to the soft-tissue biological carbon pump
Chia-Te Chien, Markus Pahlow, Christopher J. Somes, Markus Schartau, and Andreas Oschlies
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4907,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4907, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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19 Nov 2025
Inconclusive early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores
Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025, 2025
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18 Nov 2025
On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2021–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, 2025
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14 Nov 2025
Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments
Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2003–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2003-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2003-2025, 2025
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13 Nov 2025
Evolution of causal relationships under climate change: controls of Net Primary Productivity in the North Altantic Subpolar Gyre
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4680,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4680, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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12 Nov 2025
The global climate response to High-Latitude Low-Altitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (HiLLA-SAI)
Alistair Duffey, Walker Lee, Lauren Wheeler, Peter Irvine, Benjamin Wagman, Matthew Henry, Daniele Visioni, Michel Tsamados, and Douglas MacMartin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5356,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5356, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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10 Nov 2025
A warming adjustment method for CORDEX RCM simulations
Stefanie Börsig, Dominik L. Schumacher, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4968,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4968, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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07 Nov 2025
Overshoot and (ir)reversibility to 2300 in two CO2-emissions driven Earth System Models
Chris Smith, Lennart Ramme, Christopher D. Wells, Ada Gjermundsen, Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Timothée Bourgeois, Jörg Schwinger, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Chao Li, and Cecilie Mauritzen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5292,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5292, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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06 Nov 2025
Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Brian F. Bennett, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, and Ross J. Salawitch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4865,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4865, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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05 Nov 2025
| Highlight paper
Milankovitch theory “as an initial value problem”: Implications of the long memory of ice advection
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Dmitry Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1989–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1989-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1989-2025, 2025
Short summary Editorial statement
03 Nov 2025
Evaluating dynamic global vegetation models in China: challenges in capturing trends in leaf area and gross primary productivity
Anzhou Zhao, Ziyang Li, Lidong Zou, Jiansheng Wu, Kayla Stan, and Arturo Sanchez-Azofeifa
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1935–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1935-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1935-2025, 2025
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03 Nov 2025
Spatiotemporal variation of growth–stage specific concurrent climate extremes and their impacts on rice yield in southern China
Ran Sun, Tao Ye, Yiqing Liu, Weihang Liu, and Shuo Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1971–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1971-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1971-2025, 2025
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03 Nov 2025
Unravelling the future role of internal variability in South Asian near-surface wind speed
Cheng Shen, Hui-Shuang Yuan, Zhi-Bo Li, Jinling Piao, Youli Chang, and Deliang Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1959–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1959-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1959-2025, 2025
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03 Nov 2025
Exploring the Potential of LPJmL-5 to Simulate Vegetation Responses to (Multi-Year) Droughts
Denise Ruijsch, Sandra Margrit Hauswirth, Hester Biemans, and Niko Wanders
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4966,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4966, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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30 Oct 2025
Multi-decadal initialized climate predictions using the EC-Earth3 global climate model
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, Etienne Tourigny, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1923–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025, 2025
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29 Oct 2025
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21 000 years
Thomas Kenji Akabane, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Paulo Eduardo De Oliveira, Jennifer Watling, Ana Carolina Carnaval, Vincent Hanquiez, Dailson José Bertassoli Jr., Thaís Aparecida Silva, Marília H. Shimizu, and Anne-Laure Daniau
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1887–1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1887-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1887-2025, 2025
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27 Oct 2025
“History in a bottle”: tipping dynamics in packaging systems – the case of how a bottle reuse system was established and then undone
Fenna Blomsma, Mila K.-C. F. Ong, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1865–1886, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1865-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1865-2025, 2025
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27 Oct 2025
Complex Realities, Simple Signals? Global Evaluation of Early Warning Signals for Forest Mortality Events
Nielja Knecht, Romi Amilia Lotcheris, Ingo Fetzer, and Juan Rocha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4902,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4902, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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22 Oct 2025
Late Pliocene ice sheets as an analogue for future climate: a sensitivity study of the polar Southern Hemisphere
Katherine Power, Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, and Qiong Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1845–1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1845-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1845-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels
Min Cui, Duoying Ji, and Yangxin Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1809–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Swinda K. J. Falkena, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1833–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Tipping interactions and cascades on multimillennial time scales in a model of reduced complexity
Victor Couplet and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4959,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4959, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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20 Oct 2025
Representation of polynyas in the Ross Sea coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model P-SKRIPSv2
Alexandra Gossart, Alena Malyarenko, Liv Cornelissen, Craig Stevens, Una Miller, Christopher J. Zappa, Nancy Luca, Pasquale Castagno, and Giorgio Budillon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4332,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4332, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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17 Oct 2025
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1779–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025, 2025
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16 Oct 2025
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025, 2025
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16 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1739–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025, 2025
Short summary Editorial statement
15 Oct 2025
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations
Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1723–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025, 2025
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15 Oct 2025
Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment
Norman J. Steinert and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1711–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025, 2025
Short summary
15 Oct 2025
Detecting transitions and quantifying differences in two SST datasets using spatial permutation entropy
Juan Gancio, Giulio Tirabassi, Cristina Masoller, and Marcelo Barreiro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4879,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4879, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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15 Oct 2025
Solar Radiation Modification is projected to increase land carbon storage and to protect the Amazon rainforest
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
Short summary Editorial statement
15 Oct 2025
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years
Patric J. L. Boardman, Joseph Clarke, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, Christopher D. Jones, and Mark S. Williamson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4899,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4899, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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10 Oct 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1671–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, 2025
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09 Oct 2025
Eco-evolutionary modelling of global vegetation dynamics and the impact of CO2 during the late Quaternary: insights from contrasting periods
Jierong Zhao, Boya Zhou, Sandy P. Harrison, and Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1655–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025, 2025
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07 Oct 2025
Comparing the seasonal predictability of the Tropical Pacific variability in EC-Earth3 at two horizontal resolutions
Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Uncertain current and future ocean deoxygenation due to internal climate variability and observational gaps
Yohei Takano and Tatiana Ilyina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Biochar-Induced Soil Property Changes May Reduce Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Insights from Earth System Model Experiments
Lin Yu, Thomas Kleinen, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Knoblauch, and Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4648,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4648, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland outlet glaciers limit predictability of a future ice sheet collapse
Kolja Kypke, Marisa Montoya, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, and Peter Ditlevsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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02 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025
Short summary Editorial statement
30 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025
Short summary Editorial statement
30 Sep 2025
From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture
Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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29 Sep 2025
Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation
Pierre Etienne Banville, Alexander J. MacIsaac, and Kirsten Zickfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4000,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4000, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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26 Sep 2025
100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problem
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1569–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025, 2025
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25 Sep 2025
Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study
Hamish Lewis, Luke J. Harrington, Peter B. Gibson, and Neelesh Rampal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1557–1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025, 2025
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25 Sep 2025
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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24 Sep 2025
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1539–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1539-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1539-2025, 2025
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24 Sep 2025
Reduction of uncertainty in near-term climate forecast by combining observations and decadal predictions
Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, and Christophe Cassou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4463,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4463, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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23 Sep 2025
Increased heating of the land surface as hot-dry events persist
Josephin Kroll, Ruth Stephan, Andrew F. Feldman, Diego G. Miralles, and Rene Orth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4391,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4391, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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