Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD

Research article

22 May 2026
Assessing the performance of LPJmL-5 in simulating vegetation responses to normal and multi-year droughts
Denise Ruijsch, Sandra Margrit Hauswirth, Hester Biemans, and Niko Wanders
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 607–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-607-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-607-2026, 2026
Short summary
21 May 2026
Projected elevation-dependent warming in the Alps: contrasting free-atmosphere and surface trends with surface energy balance drivers
Ian Castellanos, Martin Ménégoz, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Chantal Staquet, and Xavier Fettweis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 581–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-581-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-581-2026, 2026
Short summary
20 May 2026
Global and Regional Hydroclimatic Responses to Alternative Global Reforestation Pathways
Marzieh Mortezapour, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, and Christine Leclerc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2620,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2620, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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19 May 2026
Decomposition of the Zero Emissions Commitment into thermal warming pipeline and carbon buffering components
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Marit Sandstad, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Stuart Jenkins, Charles Koven, Glen Peters, Roland Séfèrian, Andrew H. MacDougall, Ashwin Seshadri, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Abigail L. S. Swann, Torben Koenigk, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Hongmei Li, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Nadine Mengis, Anastasia Romanou, Lori T. Sentman, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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13 May 2026
Everyday weather in a warmer world
Rhidian Huw Thomas, Gilbert P. Compo, Steve George, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Andrew Schurer, Theodore G. Shepherd, Laura C. Slivinski, Vikki Thompson, and Ed Hawkins
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2548,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2548, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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12 May 2026
Critical freshwater forcing for AMOC tipping in climate models – compensation matters
Oliver Mehling, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 563–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-563-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-563-2026, 2026
Short summary
12 May 2026
Detecting transitions and quantifying differences in two SST datasets using spatial permutation entropy
Juan Gancio, Giulio Tirabassi, Cristina Masoller, and Marcelo Barreiro
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 533–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-533-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-533-2026, 2026
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12 May 2026
Equation discovery for climate impact: emulating impact models for unexplored climate scenario with interpretable symbolic regression
Erwan Le Roux, Pierre Tandeo, Carlos Granero Belinchon, Melika Baklouti, Julien Le Sommer, Florence Sevault, Samuel Somot, Antoine Doury, and Mahmoud Al Najar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1991,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1991, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 May 2026
Hot extremes following net-zero CO2 emissions in UKESM: physical drivers and role of vegetation
Andrea Rivosecchi, Andrea Dittus, Ed Hawkins, Reinhard Schiemann, and Erich Fischer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1733,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1733, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 May 2026
| Highlight paper
Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Brian F. Bennett, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-451-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-451-2026, 2026
Short summary Editorial statement
06 May 2026
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 475–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, 2026
Short summary
04 May 2026
Future learning and uncertainty reductions in projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica
Zach Zerbe, Sanket Jantre, Nathan M. Urban, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Trevor Hillebrand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1585,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1585, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 May 2026
From Paper to Proof: Revealing Congo Basin Warming Through Rescued Climate Archives
Derrick Muheki, Koen Hufkens, Kim Jacobsen, Hans Verbeeck, Pascal Boeckx, Dominique Kankonde Ntumba, Olivier Kapalay Moulasa, Bas Vercruysse, Julie M. Birkholz, Christophe Verbruggen, Ed Hawkins, Seppe Lampe, Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu, Fils Makanzu Imwangana, José Mbifo, Théophile Besango Likwela, Félicien Meunier, Olivier Dewitte, Peter Thorne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2107,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2107, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
29 Apr 2026
Global-scale drought propagation and the drivers and patterns of multi-year groundwater drought
Saskia Salwey, Sandra Hauswirth, Denise Ruijsch, Barry van Jaarsveld, Jonna van Mourik, and Niko Wanders
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2335,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2335, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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27 Apr 2026
Present and future responses of near-surface wind speed to different land-use and land-cover types in China
Hui-Shuang Yuan, Yang Xu, Zhi-Da Sun, Zi-Han Wang, Youli Chang, and Cheng Shen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1947,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1947, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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22 Apr 2026
| Highlight paper
Stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering has the potential to increase land carbon storage and to protect the Amazon rainforest
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 387–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-387-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-387-2026, 2026
Short summary Editorial statement
16 Apr 2026
The global climate response to High-Latitude Low-Altitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (HiLLA-SAI)
Alistair Duffey, Walker Lee, Lauren Wheeler, Peter Irvine, Benjamin Wagman, Matthew Henry, Daniele Visioni, Michel Tsamados, and Douglas MacMartin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 353–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-353-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-353-2026, 2026
Short summary
15 Apr 2026
A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements
Jacques Bara, Nico Wunderling, and Wolfram Barfuss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 333–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026, 2026
Short summary
14 Apr 2026
Amplification of ENSO-driven vegetation variability at decadal and longer timescales
Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Robert C. Jnglin Wills
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1961,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1961, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Short summary
13 Apr 2026
Combining different views on internal climate variability of temperature over Europe
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanová, and Jiří Mikšovský
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1341,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1341, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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10 Apr 2026
Energetics of monsoons and deserts: role of surface albedo vs water vapor feedback
Chetankumar Jalihal and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-319-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-319-2026, 2026
Short summary
08 Apr 2026
Land carbon response to positive, zero, and negative CO2 emissions across Earth system models
Abigail L. S. Swann, Charles D. Koven, Cristian Proistosecu, Rosie A. Fisher, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Nancy Y. Kiang, David M. Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Hannah Liddy, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1673,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1673, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
02 Apr 2026
The humidity paradox: how drier conditions and fewer clouds amplify terrestrial warming due to global climate change
Paul Glantz, Kevin James Noone, Abhay Devasthale, and Frederik Schenk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1654,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1654, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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30 Mar 2026
Drivers of reduced permafrost cooling efficacy of equatorial stratospheric aerosol injection in the Eastern Arctic compared to a moderate emission pathway
Isaline Businger, Rhonda Müller, Raleigh Grysko, Jacqueline Oehri, Jin-Soo Kim, and Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.177100420.06303100/v1,https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.177100420.06303100/v1, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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30 Mar 2026
Earth system models might overestimate the local plant productivity response to temperature–moisture extremes
Moritz Adam, Elisa Ziegler, Björn Gonzalez, Nils Weitzel, and Kira Rehfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-626,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-626, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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23 Mar 2026
Impacts of land-use and land-cover change on blue–green water partitioning
Simon P. Heselschwerdt, Abhinav Dengri, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Peter Greve
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-513,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-513, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
20 Mar 2026
Global hyper-resolution modeling of historical and future groundwater dynamics
Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Nicole Gyakowah Otoo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jarno Verkaik, Daniel Zamrsky, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-804,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-804, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
Short summary
19 Mar 2026
Acceleration by climate change of global economic inflation
Timothy J. Garrett and Matheus R. Grasselli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1304,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1304, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 3 comments)
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17 Mar 2026
Snowball Earth transitions from Last Glacial Maximum conditions provide an independent upper limit on Earth's climate sensitivity
Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Johannes Hörner, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 303–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026, 2026
Short summary
17 Mar 2026
Ocean and marine heatwaves responses to multiple net-zero worlds
Isaline Bossert, Roland Séférian, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Thibault Guinaldo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-993,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-993, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Mar 2026
Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections
Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 291–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-291-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-291-2026, 2026
Short summary
11 Mar 2026
Decadal predictions of wind, solar and compound power indicators to support the European renewable energy sector
Sara Moreno-Montes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Matías Olmo, Sushovan Ghosh, Verónica Torralba, and Albert Soret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1205,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1205, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 4 comments)
Short summary
11 Mar 2026
Exploring divergent long-term stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with the G2-SAI and ARISE-hybrid experiments
Walker Raymond Lee, Simone Tilmes, and Ewa M. Bednarz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1004,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1004, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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05 Mar 2026
Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation
Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026, 2026
Short summary
05 Mar 2026
An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields
Gosha Geogdzhayev, Andre N. Souza, Glenn R. Flierl, and Raffaele Ferrari
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026, 2026
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04 Mar 2026
Past, present, and future variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CMIP6 ensembles
Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 209–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026, 2026
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03 Mar 2026
Assessing Earth system responses in deep mitigation scenarios with activity-driven simulation of carbon dioxide removal
Jörg Schwinger, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Raffaele Bernadello, Momme Butenschön, Timothée Bourgeois, Matthew J. Gidden, Shraddha Gupta, Hanna Lee, Nadine Mengis, Yiannis Moustakis, Helene Muri, Lars Nieradzik, Daniele Peano, Julia Pongratz, Pascal Sauer, Etienne Tourigny, and David Wårlind
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
02 Mar 2026
Atmospheric river trajectories organise along a global transport network
Tobias Braun, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Norbert Marwan, Juergen Kurths, Johannes Quaas, Albert Díaz-Guilera, Luis Gimeno, and Miguel D. Mahecha
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7482510/v2,https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7482510/v2, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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27 Feb 2026
Toward robust fine-scale decadal precipitation forecasts through dynamically consistent subsampling
Joanne Couallier, Didier Swingedouw, Charlotte Sakarovitch, and Ramdane Alkama
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-573,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-573, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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27 Feb 2026
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability since 1850 is largely externally forced
Yongyao Liang, Ed Hawkins, Gerard McCarthy, and Peter Thorne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-699,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-699, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
Short summary
26 Feb 2026
Impacts of Simulated Coastal Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement on the Seasonal Cycle of the Air-Sea CO2 Flux and Surface Ocean pCO2 in European Waters under a Low- and a High-Emission Scenario
Chiara Ciscato, Neha Mehendale, Tronje P. Kemena, Sandy Avrutin, and David P. Keller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-926,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-926, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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24 Feb 2026
Respecting the boundaries: balancing climate adaptation and Earth system resilience
Bastian Ott, Jonathan F. Donges, and Johan Rockström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-79,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-79, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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18 Feb 2026
Informing low-order models of climate tipping elements using outputs from higher-complexity Earth system models
Nils Bochow, Jonathan Krönke, Julius Garbe, and Nico Wunderling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-614,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-614, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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11 Feb 2026
An Information-Based World-Earth System Resilience Index
John M. Anderies, Max Bechthold, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Nico Wunderling, Wolfram Barfuss, and Johan Rockström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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10 Feb 2026
The Influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on European Summer Climate: Competing Mechanisms and Implications for Prediction
Ned C. Williams, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6330,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6330, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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04 Feb 2026
Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation
Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 167–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-167-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-167-2026, 2026
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03 Feb 2026
| Highlight paper
The largest crop production shocks: magnitude, causes and frequency
Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 151–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026, 2026
Short summary Editorial statement
30 Jan 2026
The six-year cycle in atmospheric angular momentum: robustness, zonal-wind structure, and implications for Earth rotation
Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Rodrigo Abarca-del-Rio, Veronique Dehant, Mioara Mandea, Severine Rosat, and Nicolas Gillet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-82,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-82, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 3 comments)
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30 Jan 2026
Effect of a Bering Strait Closure on AMOC Resilience in a Climate Box Model
Jelle Soons, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6565,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6565, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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30 Jan 2026
Setting up the physical principles of resilience in a model of the Earth System
Orfeu Bertolami and Magnus Nyström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 141–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-141-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-141-2026, 2026
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28 Jan 2026
Regional contrasts of ecosystem productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 growth across East Asia
Yun-Soo Na, Sang-Wook Yeh, and Jong-Seong Kug
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-353,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-353, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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26 Jan 2026
Benchmarking Conditioners in Liang–Kleeman Information Flow: Application to Land–Atmosphere Interactions
Fareeha Siddique, Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, Guojie Wang, David Docquier, and Stéphane Vannitsem
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-267,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-267, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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21 Jan 2026
Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance
Kyriaki Bimpiri, Thomas Hocking, and Thorsten Mauritsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-163,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-163, 2026
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
Short summary Editorial statement
20 Jan 2026
Contributions of supraglacial lakes to the Greenland Ice Sheet melting
Alessandro Cotronei, Ulrike Feudel, and Angelika Humbert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6334,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6334, 2026
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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16 Jan 2026
A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation
Christopher B. Womack, Glenn Flierl, Shahine Bouabid, Andre N. Souza, Paolo Giani, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Noelle E. Selin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 107–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026, 2026
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14 Jan 2026
Characteristics of agricultural droughts in CMIP6 historical simulations and future projections
Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 81–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026, 2026
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13 Jan 2026
Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario
Konstanze Haubner, Heiko Goelzer, and Andreas Born
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 57–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-57-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-57-2026, 2026
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07 Jan 2026
Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming
Rebecca M. Varney, Daniel Hooke, Norman J. Steinert, T. Luke Smallman, Camilla Mathison, and Eleanor J. Burke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6075, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
Short summary
07 Jan 2026
Seamless climate information from months to multiple years: constraining decadal predictions with seasonal predictions and past observations, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026, 2026
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06 Jan 2026
Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction
Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-23-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-23-2026, 2026
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05 Jan 2026
CMIP6 multi-model assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight storm activity
Daniel Krieger and Ralf Weisse
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1-2026, 2026
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30 Dec 2025
New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models
Andrew J. Nicoll, Hannah M. Christensen, Chris Huntingford, and Doug Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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22 Dec 2025
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Bridging science and practice on multi-hazard risk drivers: stakeholder insights from five pilot studies in Europe
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2295–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025, 2025
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18 Dec 2025
The effect of noise on the stability of convection in a conceptual model of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2273–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2273-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2273-2025, 2025
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18 Dec 2025
How polar-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level
Carley E. Iles, Bjørn H. Samset, and Marianne T. Lund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2253-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2253-2025, 2025
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17 Dec 2025
Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes
Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus G. Donat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2225–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025, 2025
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10 Dec 2025
Joint evolution of irrigation, the water cycle and water resources under a strong climate change scenario from 1950 to 2100 in the IPSL-CM6
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, and Josefine Ghattas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2201–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2201-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2201-2025, 2025
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08 Dec 2025
Simulating the impact of an AMOC weakening on the Antarctic Ice Sheet using a coupled climate and ice-sheet model
Anna Höse, Moritz Kreuzer, Willem Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, and Georg Feulner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5128,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5128, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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08 Dec 2025
Strong intensification of extreme fire weather in Europe under 3 °C compared to 2 °C global warming
A. Serkan Bayar, Joaquim G. Pinto, Célia M. Gouveia, and Alexandre M. Ramos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6004,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6004, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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05 Dec 2025
The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US
Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2187–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025, 2025
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05 Dec 2025
Regional climate imprints of recent historical changes in anthropogenic Near Term Climate Forcers
Alba Santos-Espeso, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Pablo Ortega, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Markus G. Donat, Margarida Samso Cabré, and Saskia Loosveldt Tomas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025, 2025
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05 Dec 2025
Climate extremes limiting the growth of East Asian mangroves for future nature-based solutions
Ran Chen, Jin-Soo Kim, Jung-Eun Chu, Hyo-Jeong Kim, Bora Lee, Sujong Jeong, and Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5805,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5805, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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04 Dec 2025
Soil thermal memory regulates event-scale precipitation recycling lag in a dryland environment
Ruolin Li, Yang Cui, and Qi Feng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5752,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5752, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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04 Dec 2025
Large impact of extreme precipitation on projected blue-green water shares
Simon P. Heselschwerdt, Thorsten Wagener, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Anna M. Ukkola, Yannis Markonis, Yuting Yang, and Peter Greve
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5896,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5896, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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03 Dec 2025
Unexpected land-surface warming following a low-to-moderate forcing hypothetical nuclear war
Anson Ka Hei Cheung, Paul J. Kushner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Zhihong Zhuo, and Marguerite L. Brown
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5650,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5650, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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28 Nov 2025
Quantifying Resilience in Non-Autonomous and Stochastic Earth System Dynamics with Application to Glacial-Interglacial Cycles
Jakob Harteg, Nico Wunderling, and Jonathan Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5058,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5058, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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27 Nov 2025
A Deep Learning Framework for Chlorophyll Prediction in Large Marine Ecosystems: Benchmarking with a Dynamic Model and Implications for Fish Catch Forecasts
Ji-Sook Park, Jong-Yeon Park, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jeong-Hwan Kim, and Woo Jin Jeon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5673,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5673, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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24 Nov 2025
On the foundation of the α-β-γ approach to carbon-climate feedbacks
Christian H. Reick and Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça
External preprint server, https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0011-F3E7-6,https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0011-F3E7-6, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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