Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD

Research article

30 Oct 2025
Multi-decadal initialized climate predictions using the EC-Earth3 global climate model
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, Etienne Tourigny, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1923–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025, 2025
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29 Oct 2025
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21 000 years
Thomas Kenji Akabane, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Paulo Eduardo De Oliveira, Jennifer Watling, Ana Carolina Carnaval, Vincent Hanquiez, Dailson José Bertassoli Jr., Thaís Aparecida Silva, Marília H. Shimizu, and Anne-Laure Daniau
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1887–1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1887-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1887-2025, 2025
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27 Oct 2025
“History in a bottle”: tipping dynamics in packaging systems – the case of how a bottle reuse system was established and then undone
Fenna Blomsma, Mila K.-C. F. Ong, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1865–1886, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1865-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1865-2025, 2025
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27 Oct 2025
Complex Realities, Simple Signals? Global Evaluation of Early Warning Signals for Forest Mortality Events
Nielja Knecht, Romi Amilia Lotcheris, Ingo Fetzer, and Juan Rocha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4902,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4902, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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22 Oct 2025
Late Pliocene ice sheets as an analogue for future climate: a sensitivity study of the polar Southern Hemisphere
Katherine Power, Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, and Qiong Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1845–1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1845-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1845-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels
Min Cui, Duoying Ji, and Yangxin Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1809–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Swinda K. J. Falkena, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1833–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Tipping interactions and cascades on multimillennial time scales in a model of reduced complexity
Victor Couplet and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4959,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4959, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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20 Oct 2025
Representation of polynyas in the Ross Sea coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model P-SKRIPSv2
Alexandra Gossart, Alena Malyarenko, Liv Cornelissen, Craig Stevens, Una Miller, Christopher J. Zappa, Nancy Luca, Pasquale Castagno, and Giorgio Budillon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4332,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4332, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Oct 2025
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1779–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025, 2025
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16 Oct 2025
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025, 2025
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16 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1739–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
15 Oct 2025
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations
Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1723–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025, 2025
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15 Oct 2025
Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment
Norman J. Steinert and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1711–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025, 2025
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15 Oct 2025
Detecting transitions and quantifying differences in two SST datasets using spatial permutation entropy
Juan Gancio, Giulio Tirabassi, Cristina Masoller, and Marcelo Barreiro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4879,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4879, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Oct 2025
Solar Radiation Modification is projected to increase land carbon storage and to protect the Amazon rainforest
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Oct 2025
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years
Patric J. L. Boardman, Joseph Clarke, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, Christopher D. Jones, and Mark S. Williamson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4899,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4899, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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10 Oct 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1671–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, 2025
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09 Oct 2025
Eco-evolutionary modelling of global vegetation dynamics and the impact of CO2 during the late Quaternary: insights from contrasting periods
Jierong Zhao, Boya Zhou, Sandy P. Harrison, and Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1655–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025, 2025
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07 Oct 2025
Comparing the seasonal predictability of the Tropical Pacific variability in EC-Earth3 at two horizontal resolutions
Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Uncertain current and future ocean deoxygenation due to internal climate variability and observational gaps
Yohei Takano and Tatiana Ilyina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Biochar-Induced Soil Property Changes May Reduce Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Insights from Earth System Model Experiments
Lin Yu, Thomas Kleinen, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Knoblauch, and Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4648,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4648, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections
Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4720,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4720, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland outlet glaciers limit predictability of a future ice sheet collapse
Kolja Kypke, Marisa Montoya, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, and Peter Ditlevsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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02 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025
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30 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025
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30 Sep 2025
From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture
Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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29 Sep 2025
Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation
Pierre Etienne Banville, Alexander J. MacIsaac, and Kirsten Zickfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4000,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4000, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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26 Sep 2025
100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problem
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1569–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025, 2025
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25 Sep 2025
Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study
Hamish Lewis, Luke J. Harrington, Peter B. Gibson, and Neelesh Rampal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1557–1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025, 2025
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25 Sep 2025
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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24 Sep 2025
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1539–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1539-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1539-2025, 2025
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24 Sep 2025
Reduction of uncertainty in near-term climate forecast by combining observations and decadal predictions
Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, and Christophe Cassou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4463,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4463, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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23 Sep 2025
Increased heating of the land surface as hot-dry events persist
Josephin Kroll, Ruth Stephan, Andrew F. Feldman, Diego G. Miralles, and Rene Orth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4391,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4391, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Sep 2025
Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration
Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1527–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025, 2025
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17 Sep 2025
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling
External preprint server, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25,https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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16 Sep 2025
Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns
David P. Schneider, Ziqi Yin, Gemma K. O'Connor, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Zaria I. Cast, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Zachary I. Espinosa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3666,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3666, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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12 Sep 2025
Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory
Li Xu, Denis D. Patterson, Simon Asher Levin, and Jin Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1503–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025, 2025
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11 Sep 2025
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking in atmospheric rivers
Alfredo Crespo-Otero, Damián Insua-Costa, Emilio Hernández-García, Cristóbal López, and Gonzalo Míguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1483–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1483-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1483-2025, 2025
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11 Sep 2025
Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO2 emissions
Natsuki Watanabe, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomohiro Hajima, Tokuta Yokohata, and Irina Melnikova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4088,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4088, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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09 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025
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08 Sep 2025
Constrained attribution of changes in winds over the Southern Ocean from 1950 to 2100
Tereza Jarníková, Colin Jones, Steven Rumbold, and Corinne Le Quéré
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3374,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3374, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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04 Sep 2025
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models
Juliette Deman and Julien Boé
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1409–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025, 2025
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02 Sep 2025
A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements
Jacques Bara, Nico Wunderling, and Wolfram Barfuss
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4077,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4077, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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01 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
A climate suitability index for species distribution modelling applied to terrestrial arthropods in the Mediterranean region
James M. Ciarlo', Monique Borg Inguanez, Erika Coppola, Aaron Micallef, and David Mifsud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1391–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
29 Aug 2025
How polar-to-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level
Carley Elizabeth Iles, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Marianne Tronstad Lund
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4115,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4115, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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26 Aug 2025
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, 2025
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26 Aug 2025
A global map of Earth system interactions
Hannah Zoller, Steven J. Lade, C. Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Ingo Fetzer, Nitin Chaudhary, and Juan C. Rocha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3341,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3341, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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19 Aug 2025
Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Amanda Frigola, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1343–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025, 2025
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19 Aug 2025
A framework for assessing and understanding sources of error in Earth System Model emulation
Christopher B. Womack, Glenn Flierl, Shahine Bouabid, Andre N. Souza, Paolo Giani, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Noelle E. Selin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3792,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3792, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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18 Aug 2025
Conditions for Instability in the Climate-Carbon Cycle System
Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul David Longden Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark Williamson, and Peter Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3703,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3703, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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18 Aug 2025
Structural uncertainty in the direct human forcing of future global burned area
Oliver Perkins, Olivia Haas, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and James D. A. Millington
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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18 Aug 2025
An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields
Gosha Geogdzhayev, Andre N. Souza, Glenn R. Flierl, and Raffaele Ferrari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3768,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3768, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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15 Aug 2025
EC-Earth- and ERA5-driven ensemble hindcasts with the fully coupled ice-sheet–ocean–sea ice–atmosphere–land circum-Antarctic model PARASO
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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13 Aug 2025
Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, 2025
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11 Aug 2025
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Eveline van der Linden, André Jüling, and Sybren Drijfhout
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1303–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, 2025
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11 Aug 2025
Seamless climate information for the next months to multiple years: merging of seasonal and decadal predictions, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3674,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3674, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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05 Aug 2025
Physical characterization of the boundary separating safe and unsafe AMOC overshoot behavior
Aurora Faure Ragani and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1287-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1287-2025, 2025
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04 Aug 2025
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Tom Powell, Ashish Ghadiali, Ben Smith, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, 2025
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01 Aug 2025
Diagnosing aerosol–meteorological interactions on snow within Earth system models: a proof-of-concept study over High Mountain Asia
Chayan Roychoudhury, Cenlin He, Rajesh Kumar, and Avelino F. Arellano Jr.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1237–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025, 2025
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01 Aug 2025
Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC
Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1221–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025, 2025
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29 Jul 2025
Dynamical System Metrics and Weather Regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European Heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation
Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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28 Jul 2025
Nitrogen deposition and climate drive plant nitrogen uptake while soil factors drive nitrogen use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems
Helena Vallicrosa, Katrin Fleischer, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Jakub Černý, Di Tian, Angeliki Kourmouli, Carolina Mayoral, Diego Grados, Mingzhen Lu, and César Terrer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1183–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1183-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1183-2025, 2025
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25 Jul 2025
Accounting for empirical global soil organic characteristics and moisture heterogeneities in soil organic decomposition scheme of land surface models
Elodie Salmon, Bertrand Guenet, and Agnès Ducharne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3511,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3511, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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21 Jul 2025
| Highlight paper
Leveraging the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 to understand the climatic trend regimes relevant for solar energy applications over Europe
Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025, 2025
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18 Jul 2025
Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds
Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1153–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025, 2025
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18 Jul 2025
Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors
Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1135–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025, 2025
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18 Jul 2025
Bridging Science and Practice on Multi-Hazard Risk Drivers: Stakeholder Insights from Five Pilot Studies in Europe
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padron, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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17 Jul 2025
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025
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17 Jul 2025
A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: application to relationships between atmospheric, oceanic and marine biogeochemical variables
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025, 2025
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17 Jul 2025
Climate-related signals in the GV7-C ice core from East Antarctica for 1782–2013 CE: Potential relevance to climate and teleconnections between tropics and Antarctica
Yalalt Nyamgerel, Yeongcheol Han, Soon Do Hur, Hyemi Kim, Songyi Kim, Jangil Moon, Barbara Stenni, and Jeonghoon Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Jul 2025
On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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15 Jul 2025
Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025
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14 Jul 2025
A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content
Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025, 2025
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11 Jul 2025
| Highlight paper
Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics
Eric D. Galbraith, Abdullah Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 979–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025, 2025
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08 Jul 2025
Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation
Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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04 Jul 2025
The Preseason Warming of the Indian Ocean Resulting in Soybean Failure in U.S.
Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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01 Jul 2025
Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index
Joao C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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27 Jun 2025
A simple physical model for glacial cycles
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025
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26 Jun 2025
Peat oxic and anoxic controls of Sphagnum decomposition rates in the Holocene Peatland Model decomposition module estimated from litterbag data
Henning Teickner, Edzer Pebesma, and Klaus-Holger Knorr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 891–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025, 2025
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24 Jun 2025
Historical Climate and Future Projection in the North Atlantic and Arctic: Insights from EC-Earth3 High-Resolution Simulations
Mehdi Pasha Karami, Torben Koenigk, Shiyu Wang, René Navarro Labastida, Tim Kruschke, Aude Carreric, Pablo Ortega, Klaus Wyser, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Agatha M. de Boer, Marie Sicard, and Aitor Aldama Campino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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23 Jun 2025
Simulating regional impacts of irrigation on the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle using Earth System Model physics
Pierre Tiengou, Agnès Ducharne, and Frédérique Cheruy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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16 Jun 2025
Understanding European Heatwaves with Variational Autoencoders
Aytaç Paçal, Birgit Hassler, Katja Weigel, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Veronika Eyring
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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16 Jun 2025
Improving Terrestrial Carbon Flux Simulations With Machine Learning and Global Earth Observations
Christian Seiler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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12 Jun 2025
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes
Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 869–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025, 2025
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12 Jun 2025
Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments
Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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11 Jun 2025
Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
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11 Jun 2025
Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model
Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 841–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025, 2025
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04 Jun 2025
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025
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04 Jun 2025
The effect of noise on the stability of convection in a conceptual model of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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02 Jun 2025
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model
Bertrand Decharme and Jeanne Colin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 729–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025, 2025
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28 May 2025
Enhanced Climate Reproducibility Testing with False Discovery Rate Correction
Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 14 comments)
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27 May 2025
Setting up the physical principles of resilience in a model of the Earth System
Orfeu Bertolami and Magnus Nyström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2163,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2163, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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21 May 2025
Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics
Stéphane Vannitsem, X. San Liang, and Carlos A. Pires
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025, 2025
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19 May 2025
Catalogue of Strong Nonlinear Surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6
Joran R. Angevaare and Sybren S. Drijfhout
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2039,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2039, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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15 May 2025
On defining climate by means of an ensemble
Gábor Drótos and Tamás Bódai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2030,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2030, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 13 comments)
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06 May 2025
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm
Jerome Sauer, François Massonnet, Giuseppe Zappa, and Francesco Ragone
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 683–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025, 2025
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06 May 2025
Unravelling the future role of internal variability in South Asian near-surface wind speed
Cheng Shen, Hui-Shuang Yuan, Zhi-Bo Li, Jinling Piao, Youli Chang, and Deliang Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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