Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 17 Feb 2020
| 17 Feb 2020
Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Lukas Gudmundsson
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
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- STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations C. Tebaldi et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022
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- The climate in climate economics D. Folini et al. 10.2139/ssrn.3885021
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- Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years L. Beusch et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6
- Large-scale emulation of spatio-temporal variation in temperature under climate change X. Yuan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abd213
- Toward Efficient Calibration of Higher‐Resolution Earth System Models C. Fletcher et al. 10.1029/2021MS002836
- The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures J. Kikstra et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022
- Sensitivity of Air Pollution Exposure and Disease Burden to Emission Changes in China Using Machine Learning Emulation L. Conibear et al. 10.1029/2021GH000570
- Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research F. Lehner 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111113
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- National attribution of historical climate damages C. Callahan & J. Mankin 10.1007/s10584-022-03387-y
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- Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 F. Lehner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
- Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change B. Parkes et al. 10.1007/s00484-022-02295-1
- Effect of Carbon Chain Length on Nascent Yields of Stabilized Criegee Intermediates in Ozonolysis of a Series of Terminal Alkenes L. Yang & J. Zhang 10.1021/jacs.4c08051
- The Value of Initial Condition Large Ensembles to Robust Adaptation Decision‐Making J. Mankin et al. 10.1029/2020EF001610
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- STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations A. Snyder et al. 10.21105/joss.05525
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- The inherent uncertainty of precipitation variability, trends, and extremes due to internal variability, with implications for Western US water resources K. McKinnon & C. Deser 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0251.1
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- Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change – progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP S. Fiedler et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-2387-2024
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Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable to study the climate system but expensive to run. Here, we present a statistical tool which emulates ESMs at a negligible computational cost by creating stochastic realizations of yearly land temperature field time series. Thereby, 40 ESMs are considered, and for each ESM, a single simulation is required to train the tool. The resulting ESM-specific realizations closely resemble ESM simulations not employed during training at point to regional scales.
Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable to study the climate system but expensive to run....
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