We analysed 250-year global temperature trends under zero CO₂ emissions in the UK Earth System Model. Stopping emissions while global temperatures remain below +2 °C limits the post-net-zero mean surface warming. Annual hot extremes cool regionally after zero emissions in the midlatitudes, due to the expansion of evergreen vegetation. However, in this framework vegetation change is largely unconstrained by modern land-use changes, highlighting a potential limitation of idealised model protocols.

The Congo Basin is one of the least studied regions for climate change due to limited accessible data, despite large volumes of historical records stored on paper in archives. In this study, we digitised over 9,000 sheets from 37 stations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, producing more than one million daily weather observations. The results show clear warming since the 1960s, with more hot days and fewer cold days, highlighting the importance of data rescue in data-sparse regions.

We investigate how future observations may reduce uncertainty in sea-level contribution from the Amery Ice Shelf sector of Antarctica. Under a high-emissions scenario, we found that observations through 2100 are unlikely to narrow projections, but those collected after ocean warming triggers major glacier changes could reduce uncertainty in 2200 and 2300 projections. This study highlights that value of observations depends not just on more data, but also on system response to forcing.

This paper investigates how weather conditions influence droughts in groundwater. We focus on understanding why some groundwater droughts last for several years, since these long events can be difficult to manage and have particularly bad impacts. We find that some features of the groundwater system can worsen the effects of dry weather, making long groundwater droughts more likely. We categorize global groundwater data into three groups to describe how it is impacted by the weather.

Near surface wind speed matters for weather, air quality, and wind energy. Using climate model experiments, we separate how different land-use changes affected wind speed across China from 1970 to 2014. We find that conversion of natural land to grazing land had the largest effect, fertilizer use was also important, and urbanization contributed less than often assumed. These results show that different land-use processes should be considered separately when assessing wind changes.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives short-term global plant changes, but its influence on decadal changes is not fully known. Using global climate models, we found that plants show pronounced ENSO-driven changes on decadal and longer timescales. Slow plant responses are influenced by soil water content and plant dynamics but only have a weak effect on the plant’s net carbon uptake. Our work shows that vegetation memory could be an important source of decadal climate predictability.

This study aims to compare different datasets and methods to estimate Internal climate variability (ICV) magnitudes from seasonal and annual mean near-surface air temperature that could serve as benchmarks for assessing regional climate simulations over Europe. Additionally, the spatio-temporal characteristics of ICV estimates were assessed and discussed over Europe during both historical (1971–2000) and future period (2070–2099).

We analyzed simulations from Earth system models (ESM) with a constant rate of emissions, zero emissions, and negative emissions of CO₂ to quantify the response of land carbon sinks. We found that under positive emissions vegetation in the tropics gained carbon. Under zero emissions and negative emissions most ESMs lost carbon from vegetation in the tropics but gained carbon in mid- and high-latitudes, mostly in soils. Our findings imply that tropical carbon is vulnerable under zero emissions.

Terrestrial warming rates, divergent to oceans, have accelerated substantially since 1980. Decreases in relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation in addition to dryer land conditions is a strong indication of perturbed surface water balance that is driven by increases in absorbed infrared and solar radiation at the land surface. An amplifying feedback loop involving humidity, clouds, and solar radiation has likely contributed to the rapid terrestrial warming under global climate change.

The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, causing permafrost — frozen ground — to thaw and release gases that accelerate climate change. Because emissions are not falling quickly enough, ways to cool the planet by reflecting sunlight back to space are being explored. Using climate model experiments, we study how this could affect permafrost. We find it could slow overall loss later this century, but shift thaw patterns, reducing it in some regions while increasing it in others.

As plants take up Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere, they buffer climate change. They are vulnerable to extreme weather and climate. When temperature and moisture extremes happen simultaneously, they strongly affect how plants grow. We use complex computer models to understand impacts of extremes on plants. We compared the models to observations. The models do well globally and okay in many regions. Locally, they need improvement because modeling how water moves through the soil is difficult.

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can alter how precipitation is divided between river flow and water used by plants. To understand the water impacts of future LULCC, we analyse four Earth system models under a sustainable LULCC pathway. Conservation often increases plant water use, strongest in tropical dry seasons. Yet, additional rainfall reduces losses in river water in some places. Differences among models mean regional water outcomes remain uncertain for land and water planning.

We simulated how global groundwater levels have changed in the past and how they might change in the future. By improving model accuracy and using hyper-resolution data, we can now see where water tables are falling or rising across the world. These results help communities and decision-makers plan for more sustainable water use in a changing climate.

Widely used Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) predictions of the impact of climate change on the economy do not directly consider inflation. Here we introduce an economic identity we term Wealth – a metric of the entirety of civilization – that permits inflationary forces within IAMs, but reveals implausibly modest levels at odds with historical evidence. Within a more physics-based framework, we show global hyperinflationary shocks will quite plausibly emerge within the next half century.

The response of the ocean to net-zero emissions remains poorly understood. Using 300-year net-zero Earth system simulations, we show that sea surface temperature and marine heatwaves continue to reorganize long after emissions stop, with major departures from transient projections, implying underestimated long-term marine ecosystem risks.

We present a method to separate uncertainties from global and regional climate processes within the Hawkins & Sutton (2009) framework, partitioning sources of uncertainty in future climate projections. This helps interpret sources of uncertainty in future climate projections and informs adaptation planning. Focusing on regional projections reduces total uncertainty, highlighting the value of isolating regional uncertainties when developing regional climate information.

We present climate model simulation of stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed method of climate intervention where reflective particles are placed in the stratosphere to cool the planet. We design our simulated interventions to maintain certain surface temperature patterns, and show that the same temperatures can be maintained in different ways because of how the ocean transports heat. This has implications for how climate intervention model experiments are designed in the future.

Wind and solar power depend on weather conditions that can vary over the next few years. This study assesses whether climate forecasts for the next three years can help anticipate changes in renewable energy production across Europe. Solar energy is generally more predictable, especially in spring and summer, while wind energy is harder to forecast. The results show when and where near-term climate information can support energy planning and improve the resilience of renewable power systems.