Articles | Volume 10, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019
Research article
 | 
25 Apr 2019
Research article |  | 25 Apr 2019

Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018

Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi

Related authors

Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
Short summary
ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
Short summary
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
Short summary
The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing
Saïd Qasmi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 685–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 433–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Aalbers, E. E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe: climate change or internal variability?, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4745–4766, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9, 2017. 
Barredo, J. I.: No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-97-2010, 2010. 
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm tracks and climate change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543, 2006. 
Beniston, M.: Current and Future Trends of Climatic Extremes in Switzerland, Geography Compass, 1, 739–751, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-8198.2007.00043.x, 2007. 
Bichet, A., Wild, M., Folini, D., and Schär, C.: Causes for decadal variations of wind speed over land: Sensitivity studies with a global climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L11701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051685, 2012. 
Download
Short summary
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint