Articles | Volume 10, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 25 Apr 2019
| 25 Apr 2019
Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018
Robert Vautard
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212
CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, IPSL and University Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt,
the Netherlands
Friederike E. L. Otto
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Pascal Yiou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212
CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, IPSL and University Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Hylke de Vries
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt,
the Netherlands
Erik van Meijgaard
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt,
the Netherlands
Andrew Stepek
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt,
the Netherlands
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Météo-France, Direction des Services Climatiques, Toulouse,
France
Sjoukje Philip
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt,
the Netherlands
Sarah F. Kew
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt,
the Netherlands
Cecilia Costella
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
Roop Singh
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
Claudia Tebaldi
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
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- On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes R. Leeding et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100524
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29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage? D. Coumou et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277
- A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020 M. Ginesta et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x
- The Synoptic to Decadal Variability in the Winter Surface Wind Speed Over China by the Weather Regime View Z. Zhang & K. Wang 10.1029/2020GL091994
- Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution G. van Oldenborgh et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7
- Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe C. Manning et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-06011-4
- “It’s in Our DNA”: Climate Change and Perceived Resilience and Adaptive Capacity in Nature-Based Tourism in Lofoten, Norway K. Antonsen et al. 10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0026.1
- Development of a catalogue of damage in Portuguese forest associated with extreme extratropical cyclones S. Ribeiro et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151948
- Regional Climate Impacts of Future Changes in the Mid–Latitude Atmospheric Circulation: a Storyline View G. Zappa 10.1007/s40641-019-00146-7
- Projected Changes in the Atmospheric Dynamics of Climate Extremes in France P. Yiou et al. 10.3390/atmos12111440
- The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926 L. Minola et al. 10.1007/s10584-023-03525-0
- Integrating historical storm surge events into flood risk security in the Copenhagen region J. Su et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100713
- Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland C. Manning et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100562
- Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate L. Severino et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024
- Consecutive Extratropical Cyclones Daniel, Elsa and Fabien, and Their Impact on the Hydrological Cycle of Mainland Portugal M. Stojanovic et al. 10.3390/w13111476
- Climate change and windstorm losses in Poland in the twenty-first century J. Gaska 10.1080/17477891.2022.2076646
- Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method J. Sethunadh et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-05968-1
- Formally combining different lines of evidence in extreme-event attribution F. Otto et al. 10.5194/ascmo-10-159-2024
- Optimizing power system operations for extreme weather events: A review A. Bindu 10.26634/jee.16.2.19301
- Synoptic conditions linked to different Eurasian blockings modulate the anomalous surface wind speed over China Z. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107658
- Predicting the risk of tree fall onto railway lines B. Gardiner et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121614
- Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes Across the Indo‐Pacific: Climatology, Variability, and Drivers D. Li et al. 10.1029/2022GL098594
- Statistical Methods for Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Science P. Naveau et al. 10.1146/annurev-statistics-031219-041314
- A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses S. Philip et al. 10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020
- A Decline of Observed Daily Peak Wind Gusts with Distinct Seasonality in Australia, 1941–2016 C. Azorin-Molina et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0590.1
- Rapid urbanization induced daily maximum wind speed decline in metropolitan areas: A case study in the Yangtze River Delta (China) G. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101147
- On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes R. Leeding et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100524
- Synoptic and Dynamical Characteristics of High-Impact Storms Affecting the Iberian Peninsula during the 2018–2021 Extended Winters A. Gonçalves et al. 10.3390/atmos14091353
- Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community D. Jacob et al. 10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9
- Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018 F. Krikken et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that...
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