Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018

Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Yiou, Pascal; de Vries, Hylke; van Meijgaard, Erik; Stepek, Andrew; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah F.; Costella, Cecilia; Singh, Roop; Tebaldi, Claudia

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019

Articles | Volume 10, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 10, issue 2

Research article

|

25 Apr 2019

Research article |

| 25 Apr 2019

Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018

Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi

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Final revised paper (published on 25 Apr 2019)
Preprint (discussion started on 20 Sep 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

SC1: 'Correct reference for HadGEM3-A', Andrew Ciavarella, 10 Oct 2018
- AC1: 'Reply', robert vautard, 01 Feb 2019
RC1: 'Review comments', Paolo De Luca, 20 Oct 2018
- AC2: 'Rebuttal', robert vautard, 01 Feb 2019
RC2: 'Referee comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Nov 2018
- AC3: 'Rebuttal', robert vautard, 01 Feb 2019
RC3: 'Review result', Anonymous Referee #3, 06 Nov 2018
- AC4: 'Rebuttal', robert vautard, 01 Feb 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (02 Feb 2019) by Christian Franzke

AR by robert vautard on behalf of the Authors (03 Feb 2019) Author's response

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (06 Mar 2019) by Christian Franzke

RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (07 Mar 2019)

RR by Paolo De Luca (07 Mar 2019)

ED: Publish as is (08 Mar 2019) by Christian Franzke

AR by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (deceased) on behalf of the Authors (03 Apr 2019) Manuscript

Post-review adjustments

AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval

AA by robert vautard on behalf of the Authors (24 Apr 2019) Author's adjustment Manuscript

EA: Adjustments approved (24 Apr 2019) by Christian Franzke

Short summary

The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.