Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018
Research article
 | 
09 May 2018
Research article |  | 09 May 2018

European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

Erik Kjellström, Grigory Nikulin, Gustav Strandberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Daniela Jacob, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Christoph Schär, Samuel Somot, Silje Lund Sørland, Claas Teichmann, and Robert Vautard

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Cited articles

Aalbers, E. E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Hurk, B. J. J.: Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability? Clim. Dynam., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9, 2017.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Bador, M., Terray, L., Boé J., Somot, S., Alias, A., Gibelin, A.-L., and Dubuisson, B.: Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 074025, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa751c, 2017.
Bärring, L. and Strandberg, G.: Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 024029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f72, 2018.
Christensen, J. H. and Christensen, O. B.: A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of the century, Clim. Change, 81(1, Suppl.), 7–30, 2007.
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Short summary
Based on high-resolution regional climate models we investigate European climate change at 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. Considerable near-surface warming exceeding that of the global mean is found for most of Europe, already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming level. Changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speed are identified. The 1.5 °C of warming level shows significantly less change compared to the 2 °C level, indicating the importance of mitigation.
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