Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
25 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 25 Aug 2022

Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains

Changgui Lin, Erik Kjellström, Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, and Deliang Chen

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Cited articles

Åström, C., Bjelkmar, P., and Forsberg, B.: Attributing summer mortality to heat during 2018 heatwave in Sweden, Environmental Epidemiology, 3, 16–17,, 2019. a
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and García-Herrera, R.: The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224,, 2011. a
Benestad, R. E., Chen, D., and Hanssen-Bauer, I.: Empirical-statistical downscaling, World Scientific Publishing Company, ISBN 978-981-3107-29-8,, 2008. a
Benestad, R. E., van Oort, B., Justino, F., Stordal, F., Parding, K. M., Mezghani, A., Erlandsen, H. B., Sillmann, J., and Pereira-Flores, M. E.: Downscaling probability of long heatwaves based on seasonal mean daily maximum temperatures, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 4, 37–52,, 2018. a
Bieli, M., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian investigation of hot and cold temperature extremes in Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 98–108,, 2015. a
Short summary
This study endorses RCMs' added value on the driving GCMs in representing observed heat wave magnitudes. The future increase of heat wave magnitudes projected by GCMs is attenuated when downscaled by RCMs. Within the downscaling, uncertainties can be attributed almost equally to choice of RCMs and to the driving data associated with different GCMs. Uncertainties of GCMs in simulating heat wave magnitudes are transformed by RCMs in a complex manner rather than simply inherited.
Final-revised paper