Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
 | 
25 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 25 Aug 2022

Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains

Changgui Lin, Erik Kjellström, Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, and Deliang Chen

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Latest update: 18 Sep 2025
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Short summary
This study endorses RCMs' added value on the driving GCMs in representing observed heat wave magnitudes. The future increase of heat wave magnitudes projected by GCMs is attenuated when downscaled by RCMs. Within the downscaling, uncertainties can be attributed almost equally to choice of RCMs and to the driving data associated with different GCMs. Uncertainties of GCMs in simulating heat wave magnitudes are transformed by RCMs in a complex manner rather than simply inherited.
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