Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains

Lin, Changgui; Kjellström, Erik; Wilcke, Renate Anna Irma; Chen, Deliang

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022

Articles | Volume 13, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 13, issue 3

Research article

|

25 Aug 2022

Research article |

| 25 Aug 2022

Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains

Changgui Lin, Erik Kjellström, Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, and Deliang Chen

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022-supplement

Data sets

An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets (https://www.ecad.eu/) Richard C. Cornes, Gerard van der Schrier, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, and Philip D. Jones https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim) D. P. Dee, S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. V. Hólm, L. Isaksen, P. Kållberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A. P. McNally, B. M. Monge-Sanz, J.-J. Morcrette, B.-K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J.-N. Thépaut, and F. Vitart https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828

Model code and software

ahheo/climi: Python package for CLIMate Indices (v0.1.0) Changgui Lin https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7007414

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Short summary

This study endorses RCMs' added value on the driving GCMs in representing observed heat wave magnitudes. The future increase of heat wave magnitudes projected by GCMs is attenuated when downscaled by RCMs. Within the downscaling, uncertainties can be attributed almost equally to choice of RCMs and to the driving data associated with different GCMs. Uncertainties of GCMs in simulating heat wave magnitudes are transformed by RCMs in a complex manner rather than simply inherited.