Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020
Research article
 | 
30 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 30 Oct 2020

How large does a large ensemble need to be?

Sebastian Milinski, Nicola Maher, and Dirk Olonscheck

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Cited articles

Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, É., Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.: ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 42, 1999–2018, 2013. a
Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., and Sienz, F.: Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9324–9332, 2016. a, b
Branstator, G. and Selten, F.: `Modes of Variability' and Climate Change, J. Climate, 22, 2639–2658, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2517.1, 2009. a
Cai, W., Wang, G., Dewitte, B., Wu, L., Santoso, A., Takahashi, K., Yang, Y., Carréric, A., and McPhaden, M. J.: Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming, Nature, 564, 1–18, 2018. a, b
Christensen, J. H. K. K. K., Aldrian, E., An, S.-I., Cavalcanti, I., de Castro, M., Dong, W., Goswami, P., Hall, A., Kanyanga, J., Kitoh, A., Kossin, J., Lau, N.-C., Renwick, J., Stephenson, D., Xie, S.-P., and Zhou, T.: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1217–1308, 2013. a
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Initial-condition large ensembles with ensemble sizes ranging from 30 to 100 members have become a commonly used tool to quantify the forced response and internal variability in various components of the climate system, but there is no established method to determine the required ensemble size for a given problem. We propose a new framework that can be used to estimate the required ensemble size from a model's control run or an existing large ensemble.
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