Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Change Signals and Impacts
Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Change Signals and Impacts
Editor(s): Nicola Maher, Ralf Ludwig, Sebastian Milinski, and Valerio Lucarini
In recent years, a growing number of modelling groups have created large initial condition ensembles for global climate models as well as high-resolution downscaling of such ensembles using regional climate models. These large ensembles offer new opportunities to quantify a model's true forced response and internal variability and improve our understanding of projected future changes. The ensembles also allow a reinterpretation of the observed record and help in interpreting sparse observations on the one hand and the assessment of model biases on the other hand. Furthermore, the large sample size enables the exploration of extreme events in a changing climate, the detection of compound events, as well as a robust assessment of a model's variability.

These large ensembles offer unexploited opportunities for a wide range of disciplines, such as hydrology and biogeosciences, and open new perspectives for climate dynamics. This issue is open to submissions which exploit these new opportunities and explore how a combined analysis of the existing large ensembles can advance our knowledge in different fields. We particularly invite submissions that use new methods to investigate these topics.

This issue arises out of the sessions Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Change Signals and Impacts and 1st SMILE (Single Model Initial-Condition Large Ensemble) Modeling Group Meeting, both held at the EGU 2019, but is open for all submissions within its scope.

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22 Apr 2021
Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble
Nicola Maher, Sebastian Milinski, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 401–418,,, 2021
18 Nov 2020
Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031,,, 2020
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30 Oct 2020
How large does a large ensemble need to be?
Sebastian Milinski, Nicola Maher, and Dirk Olonscheck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 885–901,,, 2020
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16 Sep 2020
An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles
Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 807–834,,, 2020
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23 Jul 2020
Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe
Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Martin Leduc
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 617–640,,, 2020
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29 May 2020
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508,,, 2020
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26 May 2020
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490,,, 2020
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15 May 2020
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445,,, 2020
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26 Mar 2020
Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario
Olivier Champagne, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and M. Altaf Arain
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318,,, 2020
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12 Mar 2020
Investigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspective
Tímea Haszpra, Mátyás Herein, and Tamás Bódai
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 267–280,,, 2020
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