Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
How large does a large ensemble need to be?
Sebastian Milinski
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Nicola Maher
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Dirk Olonscheck
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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Latest update: 28 Mar 2023
Short summary
Initial-condition large ensembles with ensemble sizes ranging from 30 to 100 members have become a commonly used tool to quantify the forced response and internal variability in various components of the climate system, but there is no established method to determine the required ensemble size for a given problem. We propose a new framework that can be used to estimate the required ensemble size from a model's control run or an existing large ensemble.
Initial-condition large ensembles with ensemble sizes ranging from 30 to 100 members have become...
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