Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Research article
 | 
30 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 30 Oct 2020

How large does a large ensemble need to be?

Sebastian Milinski, Nicola Maher, and Dirk Olonscheck

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Short summary
Initial-condition large ensembles with ensemble sizes ranging from 30 to 100 members have become a commonly used tool to quantify the forced response and internal variability in various components of the climate system, but there is no established method to determine the required ensemble size for a given problem. We propose a new framework that can be used to estimate the required ensemble size from a model's control run or an existing large ensemble.
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