Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Research article
30 Oct 2020
Research article |  | 30 Oct 2020

How large does a large ensemble need to be?

Sebastian Milinski, Nicola Maher, and Dirk Olonscheck


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (16 May 2020) by Ralf Ludwig
AR by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner on behalf of the Authors (27 Aug 2020)  Author's response
ED: Publish as is (07 Sep 2020) by Ralf Ludwig
Short summary
Initial-condition large ensembles with ensemble sizes ranging from 30 to 100 members have become a commonly used tool to quantify the forced response and internal variability in various components of the climate system, but there is no established method to determine the required ensemble size for a given problem. We propose a new framework that can be used to estimate the required ensemble size from a model's control run or an existing large ensemble.
Final-revised paper