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Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
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ESD | Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019

Research article 17 Dec 2019

Research article | 17 Dec 2019

Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the North Atlantic extratropical winter circulation through increased model resolution

Mareike Schuster et al.

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Cited articles

Athanasiadis, P. J., Bellucci, A., Hermanson, L., Scaife, A. A., MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Materia, S., Borrelli, A., and Gualdi, S.: The Representation of Atmospheric Blocking and the Associated Low-Frequency Variability in Two Seasonal Prediction Systems, J. Climate, 27, 9082–9100, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00291.1, 2014. a, b
Balmaseda, M. A., Mogensen, K., and Weaver, A. T.: Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 1132–1161, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063, 2013. a
Barnes, E. A., Slingo, J., and Woollings, T.: A methodology for the comparison of blocking climatologies across indices, models and climate scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 38, 2467–2481, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1243-6, 2012. a
Befort, D. J., Wild, S., Knight, J. R., Lockwood, J. F., Thornton, H. E., Hermanson, L., Bett, P. E., Weisheimer, A., and Leckebusch, G. C.: Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 92–104, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3406, 2019. a, b, c
Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm tracks and climate change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3815.1, 2006. a
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Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
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