Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Apr 2016
Research article |
| 21 Apr 2016
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Analytics, Friedrichstr. 231 – Haus B, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Tabea K. Lissner
Climate Analytics, Friedrichstr. 231 – Haus B, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Erich M. Fischer
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Jan Wohland
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Mahé Perrette
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Antonius Golly
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
University of Potsdam, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, Potsdam, Germany
Joeri Rogelj
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Katelin Childers
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jacob Schewe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Katja Frieler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Matthias Mengel
Climate Analytics, Friedrichstr. 231 – Haus B, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
William Hare
Climate Analytics, Friedrichstr. 231 – Haus B, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Michiel Schaeffer
Climate Analytics, Friedrichstr. 231 – Haus B, 10969 Berlin, Germany
Wageningen University and Research Centre, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Related authors
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatonnes. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 367–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar radiation modification (SRM) artificially cools global temperature without acting on the cause of climate change. This study looks at how long SRM would have to be deployed to limit warming to 1.5 °C and how this timeframe is affected by different levels of mitigation, negative emissions and climate uncertainty. None of the three factors alone can guarantee short SRM deployment. Due to their uncertainty at the time of SRM initialization, any deployment risks may be several centuries long.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Lea Beusch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 851–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by natural climate variability. Emulators are valuable tools for approximating climate model runs, allowing for easy exploration of such uncertainty spaces. This study takes a first step at building a spatially resolved, monthly temperature emulator that takes local yearly temperatures as the sole input, thus providing monthly temperature distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.
Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tobias Geiger, and Marlene Kretschmer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures and disaster preparedness. Many seasonal forecasts are based on a selection of climate signals from which a statistical model is constructed. The crucial step in this approach is to select the most relevant predictors without overfitting. Here we show that causal effect networks can be used to identify the most robust predictors. Based on these predictors we construct a competitive forecast model.
Fahad Saeed, Ingo Bethke, Stefan Lange, Ludwig Lierhammer, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, Tim Trautmann, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-107, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
C. F. Schleussner, J. Runge, J. Lehmann, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 103–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014, 2014
C. F. Schleussner and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1321–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1321-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1321-2013, 2013
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-250, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-250, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policy makers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatonnes. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Robert Reinecke, Annemarie Bäthge, Ricarda Dietrich, Sebastian Gnann, Simon N. Gosling, Danielle Grogan, Andreas Hartmann, Stefan Kollet, Rohini Kumar, Richard Lammers, Sida Liu, Yan Liu, Nils Moosdorf, Bibi Naz, Sara Nazari, Chibuike Orazulike, Yadu Pokhrel, Jacob Schewe, Mikhail Smilovic, Maryna Strokal, Yoshihide Wada, Shan Zuidema, and Inge de Graaf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe a collaborative effort to improve predictions of how climate change will affect groundwater. The ISIMIP groundwater sector combines multiple global groundwater models to capture a range of possible outcomes and reduce uncertainty. Initial comparisons reveal significant differences between models in key metrics like water table depth and recharge rates, highlighting the need for structured model intercomparisons.
Luna Bloin-Wibe, Robin Noyelle, Vincent Humphrey, Urs Beyerle, Reto Knutti, and Erich Fischer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-525, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Weather extremes have become more frequent due to climate change. It is therefore crucial to understand them, but since they are rarer than average weather, they are challenging to study. Ensemble Boosting (EB) is a tool that generates extreme climate model events efficiently, but without directly estimating their probability. Here, we present a method to recover these probabilities for a global climate model. EB can thus now be used to find extremes with meaningful statistical information.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Ruben Prütz, Sabine Fuss, and Joeri Rogelj
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 221–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-221-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The AR6 Scenarios Database lacks data on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) via land sinks for many pathways, hindering secondary scenario analyses. We tested and compared regression models, identifying k-nearest neighbors regression as most effective to predict missing CDR data. We provide an imputation dataset for incomplete global scenarios (n = 404) and for regional scenario variants (n = 2358) and discuss the caveats of our study, its use cases, and how our dataset compares to other approaches.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan C. Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic-climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Simon Treu, Sanne Muis, Sönke Dangendorf, Thomas Wahl, Julius Oelsmann, Stefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler, and Matthias Mengel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1121–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes a reconstruction of monthly coastal water levels from 1900–2015 and hourly data from 1979–2015, both with and without long-term sea level rise. The dataset is based on a combination of three datasets that are focused on different aspects of coastal water levels. Comparison with tide gauge records shows that this combination brings reconstructions closer to the observations compared to the individual datasets.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Joel Zeder and Erich M. Fischer
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 83–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The intensities of recent heatwave events, such as the record-breaking heatwave in early June 2021 in the Pacific Northwest area, are substantially altered by climate change. We further quantify the contribution of the local weather situation and the land surface conditions with a statistical model suited for extreme data. Based on this method, we can answer
what ifquestions, such as estimating the change in the 2021 heatwave temperature if it happened in a world without climate change.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Stefan Lange, Chantal Hari, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Olaf Conrad, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2445–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first 1 km, daily, global climate dataset for climate impact studies. We show that the high-resolution data have a decreased bias and higher correlation with measurements from meteorological stations than coarser data. The dataset will be of value for a wide range of climate change impact studies both at global and regional level that benefit from using a consistent global dataset.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 367–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar radiation modification (SRM) artificially cools global temperature without acting on the cause of climate change. This study looks at how long SRM would have to be deployed to limit warming to 1.5 °C and how this timeframe is affected by different levels of mitigation, negative emissions and climate uncertainty. None of the three factors alone can guarantee short SRM deployment. Due to their uncertainty at the time of SRM initialization, any deployment risks may be several centuries long.
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Christopher J. Smith, Jared Lewis, Robin D. Lamboll, Edward Byers, Marit Sandstad, Malte Meinshausen, Matthew J. Gidden, Joeri Rogelj, Elmar Kriegler, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Bjørn H. Samset, Laura Wienpahl, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Piers M. Forster, Andy Reisinger, Roberto Schaeffer, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9075–9109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source
climate-assessmentworkflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Dominik Paprotny and Matthias Mengel
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-194, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Population and economic growth over past decades have increased risk posed by natural hazards. The model presented here generates high-resolution maps of land use, population and assets (exposure) from 1870 to 2020 for 42 countries. It combines multiple methods with a large database of historical statistical data to approximate past anthropogenic environment of Europe. It enables attributing losses from past disasters to climate change by removing the influence of changes in exposure.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Lea Beusch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 851–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by natural climate variability. Emulators are valuable tools for approximating climate model runs, allowing for easy exploration of such uncertainty spaces. This study takes a first step at building a spatially resolved, monthly temperature emulator that takes local yearly temperatures as the sole input, thus providing monthly temperature distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.
Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Stefan Lange, and Katja Frieler
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5269–5284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the impacts of historical climate change it is necessary to separate the effect of the different impact drivers. To address this, one needs to compare historical impacts to a counterfactual world with impacts that would have been without climate change. We here present an approach that produces counterfactual climate data and can be used in climate impact models to simulate counterfactual impacts. We make these data available through the ISIMIP project.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the inter-annual variability of three single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), downscaled with three regional climate models over Europe for seasonal temperature and precipitation, the number of heatwaves, and maximum length of dry periods. They all show good consistency with observational data. The magnitude of variability and the future development are similar in many cases. In general, variability increases for summer indicators and decreases for winter indicators.
Robin D. Lamboll, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Malte Meinshausen, and Joeri Rogelj
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5259–5275, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5259-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5259-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Many models project how human activity can lead to more or less climate change, but most of these models do not project all climate-relevant emissions, potentially biasing climate projections. This paper outlines a Python package called Silicone, which can add missing emissions in a flexible yet high-throughput manner. It does this
infillingbased on more complete literature projections. It facilitates a more complete understanding of the climate impact of alternative emission pathways.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tobias Geiger, and Marlene Kretschmer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures and disaster preparedness. Many seasonal forecasts are based on a selection of climate signals from which a statistical model is constructed. The crucial step in this approach is to select the most relevant predictors without overfitting. Here we show that causal effect networks can be used to identify the most robust predictors. Based on these predictors we construct a competitive forecast model.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Jakob Zscheischler, Erich M. Fischer, and Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many climate models have biases in different variables throughout the world. Adjusting these biases is necessary for estimating climate impacts. Here we demonstrate that widely used univariate bias adjustment methods do not work well for multivariate impacts. We illustrate this problem using fire risk and heat stress as impact indicators. Using an approach that adjusts not only biases in the individual climate variables but also biases in the correlation between them can resolve these problems.
Martin Rückamp, Ulrike Falk, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, and Angelika Humbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change. The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100
and 36–85 mm by 2300. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying climate data.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Fahad Saeed, Ingo Bethke, Stefan Lange, Ludwig Lierhammer, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, Tim Trautmann, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-107, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
Sebastian Ostberg, Jacob Schewe, Katelin Childers, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 479–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-479-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
It has been shown that regional temperature and precipitation changes in future climate change scenarios often scale quasi-linearly with global mean temperature change (∆GMT). We show that an important consequence of these physical climate changes, namely changes in agricultural crop yields, can also be described in terms of ∆GMT to a large extent. This makes it possible to efficiently estimate future crop yield changes for different climate change scenarios without need for complex models.
Camille Li, Clio Michel, Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Giuseppe Zappa, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Erich Fischer, Ben J. Harvey, Trond Iversen, Martin P. King, Harinarayan Krishnan, Ludwig Lierhammer, Daniel Mitchell, John Scinocca, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, and Justin J. Wettstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 359–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the midlatitude atmospheric circulation response to 1.5°C and 2.0°C of warming using modelling experiments run for the HAPPI project (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis & Projected Impacts). While the chaotic nature of the atmospheric flow dominates in these low-end warming scenarios, some local changes emerge. Case studies explore precipitation impacts both for regions that dry (Mediterranean) and regions that get wetter (Europe, North American west coast).
Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Heike K. Lotze, Eric D. Galbraith, William Cheung, Manuel Barange, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Jose A. Fernandes, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Veronika Huber, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Patrick Lehodey, Jason S. Link, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago Silva, Charles A. Stock, Jeroen Steenbeek, Philip J. Underwood, Jan Volkholz, James R. Watson, and Nicola D. Walker
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S. Graff, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 299–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change challenged the scientific community to describe the impacts of stabilizing the global temperature at its 21st Conference of Parties. A specific target of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels had not been seriously considered by the climate modeling community prior to the Paris Agreement. This paper analyzes heat waves in simulations designed for this target. We find there are reductions in extreme temperature compared to a 2 °C target.
Tobias Geiger, Katja Frieler, and David N. Bresch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 185–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-185-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-185-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a major risk to societies worldwide but very limited data exist on their socioeconomic impacts. Here, we apply a common wind field model to comprehensively and consistently estimate the number of people and the sum of assets exposed by all TCs between 1950 and 2015. This information is crucial to assess changes in societal vulnerabilites, to calibrate TC damage functions, and to make risk data more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Antonius Golly and Jens M. Turowski
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 557–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-557-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-557-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Researchers of fluvial geomorphology require reliable information on channel width and its change in space and time. For example, to study bank erosion rates we need the local position of channel banks before and after a high flood event. Although deriving these metrics seems simple, researchers often use manual or arbitrary approaches that are not objective and reproducible. Here, we present an open-source software tool
cmgo(R package) that meets the requirements of academic research.
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations show that threshold behavior can follow from the internal dynamics of monsoons. So far, however, the possibility of abrupt changes has not been explored for modern monsoon systems. We analyze state-of-the-art climate model simulations and show that some models project abrupt changes in Sahel rainfall in response to a dynamic shift in the West African monsoon under 21st century climate change.
Alexander Nauels, Malte Meinshausen, Matthias Mengel, Katja Lorbacher, and Tom M. L. Wigley
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2495–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The MAGICC sea level model projects global sea level rise by emulating process-based estimates for all major sea level drivers and applying them to available climate scenarios and their extensions to 2300. The MAGICC sea level projections are well within the ranges of the fifth IPCC assessment report. Due to its efficient structure, this emulator is a powerful tool for exploring sea level uncertainties and investigating sea level responses for a wide range of climate mitigation pathways.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Alex C. Ruane, Claas Teichmann, Nigel W. Arnell, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Katja Frieler, Clare M. Goodess, Bruce Hewitson, Radley Horton, R. Sari Kovats, Heike K. Lotze, Linda O. Mearns, Antonio Navarra, Dennis S. Ojima, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matthias Themessl, and Katharine Vincent
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3493–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6 was created to improve communications between communities that apply climate model output for societal benefit and the climate model centers. This manuscript describes the establishment of the VIACS Advisory Board as a coherent avenue for communication utilizing leading networks, experts, and programs; results of initial interactions during the development of CMIP6; and its potential next activities.
K. Frieler, M. Mengel, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of > 80 % of the additional ice requires a distance of > 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea-level rise of 3 mm yr−1 exceeds 7 % of current global primary energy supply.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
C. F. Schleussner, J. Runge, J. Lehmann, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 103–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014, 2014
J. Heinke, S. Ostberg, S. Schaphoff, K. Frieler, C. Müller, D. Gerten, M. Meinshausen, and W. Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1689–1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013, 2013
S. Hempel, K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013
C. F. Schleussner and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1321–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1321-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1321-2013, 2013
M. Perrette, F. Landerer, R. Riva, K. Frieler, and M. Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth system change: climate scenarios
Countries most exposed to individual and concurrent extremes and near-permanent extreme conditions at different global warming levels
Direct and indirect application of univariate and multivariate bias corrections on heat-stress indices based on multiple regional-climate-model simulations
Overview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)
The implications of maintaining Earth's hemispheric albedo symmetry for shortwave radiative feedbacks
Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations
STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint
Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events
Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems
Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention
Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy
Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios
Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary
The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections
Climate change signal in the ocean circulation of the Tyrrhenian Sea
Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change
Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations
Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models
Seasonal discharge response to temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow processes in the Rhine Basin
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Historical and future contributions of inland waters to the Congo Basin carbon balance
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe
A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels
ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations
Differing precipitation response between solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal due to fast and slow components
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts
Changes in statistical distributions of sub-daily surface temperatures and wind speed
The economically optimal warming limit of the planet
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi
Tracking the moisture transport from the Pacific towards Central and northern South America since the late 19th century
Freshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement
The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections
The effect of overshooting 1.5 °C global warming on the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet
ESD Ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks
The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance
Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe
Fulden Batibeniz, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 485–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study single and concurrent heatwaves, droughts, precipitation, and wind extremes. Globally, these extremes become more frequent and affect larger land areas under future warming, with several countries experiencing extreme events every single month. Concurrent heatwaves–droughts (precipitation–wind) are projected to increase the most in mid–high-latitude countries (tropics). Every mitigation action to avoid further warming will reduce the number of people exposed to extreme weather events.
Liying Qiu, Eun-Soon Im, Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim, Dong-Hyun Cha, Seok-Woo Shin, Joong-Bae Ahn, Eun-Chul Chang, and Young-Hwa Byun
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 507–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates four bias correction methods (three univariate and one multivariate) for correcting multivariate heat-stress indices. We show that the multivariate method can benefit the indirect correction that first adjusts individual components before index calculation, and its advantage is more evident for indices relying equally on multiple drivers. Meanwhile, the direct correction of heat-stress indices by the univariate quantile delta mapping approach also has comparable performance.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
Aiden R. Jönsson and Frida A.-M. Bender
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 345–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-345-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth has nearly the same mean albedo in both hemispheres, a feature not well replicated by climate models. Global warming causes changes in surface and cloud properties that affect albedo and that feed back into the warming. We show that models predict more darkening due to ice loss in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere in response to increasing CO2 concentrations. This is, to varying degrees, counteracted by changes in cloud cover, with implications for cloud feedback on climate.
Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 81–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation change is an important consequence of climate change, but it is hard to detect and quantify. Our intuitive method yields robust and interpretable detection of forced precipitation change in three observational datasets for global mean and extreme precipitation, but the different observational datasets show different magnitudes of forced change. Assessment and reduction of uncertainties surrounding forced precipitation change are important for future projections and adaptation.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite little evidence of regional Amazon rainforest dieback, many localised abrupt dieback events are observed in the latest state-of-the-art global climate models under anthropogenic climate change. The detected dieback events would still cause severe consequences for local communities and ecosystems. This study suggests that 7 ± 5 % of the northern South America region would experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 °C.
Jörg Schwinger, Ali Asaadi, Norman Julius Steinert, and Hanna Lee
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1641–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere to compensate for too large past and near-term emissions by using idealized model simulations of overshoot pathways. On a timescale of 100 years, we find a high degree of reversibility if the overshoot size remains small, and we do not find tipping points even for intense overshoots. We caution that current Earth system models are most likely not able to skilfully model tipping points in ecosystems.
Claudia Tebaldi, Abigail Snyder, and Kalyn Dorheim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1557–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Impact modelers need many future scenarios to characterize the consequences of climate change. The climate modeling community cannot fully meet this need because of the computational cost of climate models. Emulators have fallen short of providing the entire range of inputs that modern impact models require. Our proposal, STITCHES, meets these demands in a comprehensive way and may thus support a fully integrated impact research effort and save resources for the climate modeling enterprise.
Aurélien Ribes, Julien Boé, Saïd Qasmi, Brigitte Dubuisson, Hervé Douville, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1397–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we deliver an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. As a key result, we find that the warming over that region was underestimated in previous multi-model ensembles by up to 50 %. We also assess the contribution of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors to the observed warming, as well as the impact on the seasonal temperature cycle, and we discuss implications for climate services.
Nicola Maher, Thibault P. Tabarin, and Sebastian Milinski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1289–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño events occur as two broad types: eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP). EP and CP events differ in strength, evolution, and in their impacts. In this study we create a new machine learning classifier to identify the two types of El Niño events using observed sea surface temperature data. We apply our new classifier to climate models and show that CP events are unlikely to change in frequency or strength under a warming climate, with model disagreement for EP events.
Alizée Chemison, Dimitri Defrance, Gilles Ramstein, and Cyril Caminade
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1259–1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact of a rapid melting of the ice sheets on monsoon systems during the 21st century. The impact of a partial Antarctica melting is moderate. Conversely, Greenland melting slows down the oceanic Atlantic circulation and changes winds, temperature and pressure patterns, resulting in a southward shift of the tropical rain belt over Africa and America. The seasonality, duration and intensity of rainfall events are affected, with potential severe impacts on vulnerable populations.
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Miriam D'Errico, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Tao, Cesare Nardini, Frank Lunkeit, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 961–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the cold spells to decrease in frequency and intensity. Our analysis shows that the frequency of circulation patterns leading to snowy cold-spell events over Italy will not decrease under business-as-usual emission scenarios, although the associated events may not lead to cold conditions in the warmer scenarios.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Cyril Dutheil, H. E. Markus Meier, and Dmitry V. Sein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 613–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers transport high amounts of water from subtropical regions to Europe. They are an important driver of heavy precipitation and flooding. Their response to a warmer future climate in Europe has so far been assessed only by global climate models. In this study, we apply for the first time a high-resolution regional climate model that allow to better resolve and understand the fate of atmospheric rivers over Europe.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Josep Cos, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Martin Jury, Raül Marcos, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Margarida Samsó
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean has been identified as being more affected by climate change than other regions. We find that amplified warming during summer and annual precipitation declines are expected for the 21st century and that the magnitude of the changes will mainly depend on greenhouse gas emissions. By applying a method giving more importance to models with greater performance and independence, we find that the differences between the last two community modelling efforts are reduced in the region.
Alba de la Vara, Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Alfredo Izquierdo, Dmitry V. Sein, and William Cabos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 303–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study with the regionally coupled climate model ROM the impact of climate change on the Tyrrhenian Sea circulation, as well as the possible mechanisms and consequences in the NW Mediterranean Sea. Our results show a shift towards the summer circulation pattern by the end of the century. Also, water flowing via the Corsica Channel is more stratified and smaller in volume. Both factors may contribute to the interruption of deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions in the future.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1503–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 457–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents new estimates of future extreme weather in Europe, including extreme heat, extreme rainfall and meteorological drought. These new estimates were achieved by repeating model calculations many times, thereby reducing uncertainties of these rare events at low levels of global warming at 1.5 and 2 °C above
pre-industrial temperature levels. These results are important, as they help to assess which weather extremes could increase at moderate warming levels and where.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Higher temperatures influence both evaporation and snow processes. These two processes have a large effect on discharge but have distinct roles during different seasons. In this study, we study how higher temperatures affect the discharge via changed evaporation and snow dynamics. Higher temperatures lead to enhanced evaporation but increased melt from glaciers, overall lowering the discharge. During the snowmelt season, discharge was reduced further due to the earlier depletion of snow.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used a model of the Congo Basin to investigate the transfer of carbon (C) from land (vegetation and soils) to inland waters. We estimate that leaching of C to inland waters, emissions of CO2 from the water surface, and the export of C to the coast have all increased over the last century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change. We predict that these trends may continue through the 21st century and call for long-term monitoring of these fluxes.
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the inter-annual variability of three single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), downscaled with three regional climate models over Europe for seasonal temperature and precipitation, the number of heatwaves, and maximum length of dry periods. They all show good consistency with observational data. The magnitude of variability and the future development are similar in many cases. In general, variability increases for summer indicators and decreases for winter indicators.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals requires both near-zero levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and deep cuts in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Here we quantify the near- and long-term global temperature impacts of emissions of individual SLCFs and CO2 from 7 economic sectors in 13 regions in order to provide the detailed knowledge needed to design efficient mitigation strategies at the sectoral and regional levels.
Kathrin Wehrli, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 855–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The 2018 summer was unusually hot for large areas in the Northern Hemisphere, and heatwaves on three continents led to major impacts on agriculture and society. This study investigates storylines for the extreme 2018 summer, given the observed atmospheric circulation but different levels of background global warming. The results reveal a strong contribution by the present-day level of global warming and show a dramatic outlook for similar events in a warmer climate.
Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 751–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Policy making on climate change routinely employs socioeconomic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not employed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here, we argue that to enable risk assessments and development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
Anton Laakso, Peter K. Snyder, Stefan Liess, Antti-Ilari Partanen, and Dylan B. Millet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 415–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering techniques have been proposed to prevent climate warming in the event of insufficient greenhouse gas emission reductions. Simultaneously, these techniques have an impact on precipitation, which depends on the techniques used, geoengineering magnitude, and background circumstances. We separated the independent and dependent components of precipitation responses to temperature, which were then used to explain the precipitation changes in the studied climate model simulations.
Monika J. Barcikowska, Sarah B. Kapnick, Lakshmi Krishnamurty, Simone Russo, Annalisa Cherchi, and Chris K. Folland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 161–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, 2020
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Sabrina Hempel, Christoph Menz, Severino Pinto, Elena Galán, David Janke, Fernando Estellés, Theresa Müschner-Siemens, Xiaoshuai Wang, Julia Heinicke, Guoqiang Zhang, Barbara Amon, Agustín del Prado, and Thomas Amon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 859–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decreasing humidity and increasing wind speed regionally alleviate the heat load on farm animals, but future temperature rise considerably increases the heat stress risk. Livestock housed in open barns (or on pastures), such as dairy cattle, is particularly vulnerable. Without adaptation, heat waves will considerably reduce the gross margin of a livestock producer. Negative effects on productivity, health and animal welfare as well as increasing methane and ammonia emissions are expected.
Robert J. H. Dunn, Kate M. Willett, and David E. Parker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 765–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-765-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using a sub-daily dataset of in situ observations, we have performed a study to see how the distributions of temperatures and wind speeds have changed over the last 45 years. Changes in the location or shape of these distributions show how extreme temperatures or wind speeds have changed. Our results show that cool extremes are warming more rapidly than warm ones in high latitudes but that in other parts of the world the opposite is true.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Lise S. Graff, Trond Iversen, Ingo Bethke, Jens B. Debernard, Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Alf Kirkevåg, Camille Li, and Dirk J. L. Olivié
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 569–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Differences between a 1.5 and a 2.0 °C warmer global climate than 1850 conditions are discussed based on a suite of global atmosphere-only, fully coupled, and slab-ocean runs with the Norwegian Earth System Model. Responses, such as the Arctic amplification of global warming, are stronger with the fully coupled and slab-ocean configurations. While ice-free Arctic summers are rare under 1.5 °C warming in the slab-ocean runs, they are estimated to occur 18 % of the time under 2.0 °C warming.
David Gallego, Ricardo García-Herrera, Francisco de Paula Gómez-Delgado, Paulina Ordoñez-Perez, and Pedro Ribera
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-319-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-319-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
By analysing old wind direction observations taken aboard sailing ships, it has been possible to build an index quantifying the moisture transport from the equatorial Pacific into large areas of Central America and northern South America starting in the late 19th century. This transport is deeply related to a low-level jet known as the Choco jet. Our results suggest that the seasonal distribution of the precipitation associated with this transport could have changed over the time.
Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Mats Lannerstad, Dieter Gerten, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 205–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, 2019
Filippo Giorgi, Francesca Raffaele, and Erika Coppola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 73–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-73-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper revisits the critical issue of precipitation characteristics in response to global warming through a new analysis of global and regional climate projections and a summary of previous work. Robust responses are identified and the underlying processes investigated. Examples of applications are given, such as the evaluation of risks associated with extremes. The paper, solicited by the EGU executive office, is based on the 2018 EGU Alexander von Humboldt medal lecture by Filippo Giorgi.
Martin Rückamp, Ulrike Falk, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, and Angelika Humbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change. The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100
and 36–85 mm by 2300. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying climate data.
Rowan T. Sutton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1155–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide policy-relevant assessments of the scientific evidence about climate change. Policymaking necessarily involves risk assessments, so it is important that IPCC reports are designed accordingly. This paper proposes a specific idea, illustrated with examples, to improve the contribution of IPCC Working Group I to informing climate risk assessments.
Matthias Aengenheyster, Qing Yi Feng, Frederick van der Ploeg, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1085–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take action to reduce greenhouse gases to stay, with a certain probability, within thresholds set by the Paris Agreement. For a 67 % probability and a 2 K threshold, the PNR is the year 2035 when the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % per year. We show the impact on the PNR of the speed by which emissions are cut, the risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions.
Martha M. Vogel, Jakob Zscheischler, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change projections of temperature extremes are particularly uncertain in central Europe. We demonstrate that varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks in current climate models leads to an enhancement of model differences; thus, they can explain the large uncertainties in extreme temperature projections. Using an observation-based constraint, we show that the strong drying and large increase in temperatures exhibited by models on the hottest day in central Europe are highly unlikely.
Cited articles
Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rötter, R., Lobell, D., Cammarano, D., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M., Wall, G., White, J., Reynolds, M., Alderman, P., Prasad, P., Aggarwal, P., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Challinor, A., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L., Izaurralde, R., Jabloun, M., Jones, C., Kersebaum, K., Koehler, A.-K., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O’Leary, G., Olesen, J., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Ruane, A., Semenov, M., Shcherbak, I., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wallach, D., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., and Zhu, Y.: Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 143–147, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470, 2014.
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., and Meko, D. M.: Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data, J. Climate, 27, 7529–7549, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1, 2014.
Baker, A. C., Glynn, P. W., and Riegl, B.: Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 435–471, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1408-y, 2012.
Bindschadler, R. A., Nowicki, S., Abe-OUCHI, A., Aschwanden, A., Choi, H., Fastook, J., Granzow, G., Greve, R., Gutowski, G., Herzfeld, U., Jackson, C., Johnson, J., Khroulev, C., Levermann, A., Lipscomb, W. H., Martin, M. A., Morlighem, M., Parizek, B. R., Pollard, D., Price, S. F., Ren, D., Saito, F., Sato, T., Seddik, H., Seroussi, H., Takahashi, K., Walker, R., and Wang, W. L.: Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project), J. Glaciol., 59, 195–224, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J125, 2013.
Bodirsky, B. L. and Müller, C.: Robust relationship between yields and nitrogen inputs indicates three ways to reduce nitrogen pollution, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 111005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/111005, 2014.
Bodirsky, B. L., Popp, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Dietrich, J. P., Rolinski, S., Weindl, I., Schmitz, C., Müller, C., Bonsch, M., Humpenöder, F., Biewald, A., and Stevanovic, M.: Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution, Nat. Commun., 5, 3858, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4858, 2014.
Boers, N., Bookhagen, B., Barbosa, H., Marwan, N., and Kurths, J.: Prediction of extreme floods in the Central Andes by means of Complex Networks, Nat. Commun., 16, 7173, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6199, 2014.
Caldeira, K.: Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 110, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002671, 2005.
Chadwick, R. and Good, P.: Understanding nonlinear tropical precipitation responses to CO2 forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4911–4915, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50932, 2013.
Chen, P.-Y., Chen, C.-C., Chu, L., and Mccarl, B.: Evaluating the economic damage of climate change on global coral reefs, Global Environ. Change, 30, 12–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.10.011, 2015.
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Cinner, J. E., Pratchett, M. S., Graham, N. A. J., Messmer, V., Fuentes, M. M. P. B., Ainsworth, T., Ban, N., Bay, L. K., Blythe, J., Dissard, D., Dunn, S., Evans, L., Fabinyi, M., Fidelman, P., Figueiredo, J., Frisch, A. J., Fulton, C. J., Hicks, C. C., Lukoschek, V., Mallela, J., Moya, A., Penin, L., Rummer, J. L., Walker, S., and Williamson, D. H.: A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems, Reg. Environ. Change, 16, 1133–1146 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0832-z, 2016.
Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., Levermann, A., Milne, G. A., Pfister, P. L., Santer, B. D., Schrag, D. P., Solomon, S., Stocker, T. F., Strauss, B. H., Weaver, A. J., Winkelmann, R., Archer, D., Bard, E., Goldner, A., Lambeck, K., Pierrehumbert, R. T., and Plattner, G.-K.: Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 360–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2923, 2016.
Coumou, D. and Robinson, A.: Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034018, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034018, 2013.
Dai, A.: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 52–58, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1633, 2012.
Deryng, D., Conway, D., Ramankutty, N., Price, J., and Warren, R.: Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 034011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011, 2014.
Diffenbaugh, N. S. and Scherer, M.: Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries, Climatic Change, 107, 615–624, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y, 2011.
Donner, S. D.: Coping with commitment: projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios, PloS One, 4, e5712, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005712, 2009.
Donner, S. D., Skirving, W. J., Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M., and Hoegh-Gulberg, O.: Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change, Global Change Biol., 11, 2251–2265, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01073.x, 2005.
Donner, S. D., Knutson, T. R., and Oppenheimer, M.: Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 104, 5483–5488, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610122104, 2007.
Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349, 6244, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4019, 2015.
Eamus, D.: The interaction of rising CO2 and temperatures with water use efficiency, Plant Cell Environ., 14, 843–852, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3040.1991.tb01447.x, 1991.
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., and Le Brocq, A. M.: Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014.
Feldmann, J. and Levermann, A.: Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 112, 14191–14196, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1512482112, 2015.
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Gallée, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013.
Fischer, E.M. and Knutti, R.: Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058499, 2014.
Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U., and Knutti, R.: Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 1033–1038, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2051, 2013.
Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of Climate Models, book section 9, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 741–866, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020, 2013.
Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Golly, A., Mengel, M., Lebek, K., Donner, S. D., and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.: Limiting global warming to 2C is unlikely to save most coral reefs, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 165–170, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1674, 2012.
Frieler, K., Levermann, A., Elliott, J., Heinke, J., Arneth, A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Döll, P., Falloon, P., Fekete, B., Folberth, C., Friend, A. D., Gellhorn, C., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Neumann, K., Oki, T., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Stacke, T., Stehfest, E., Tang, Q., Wisser, D., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., Lotze-Campen, H., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015.
Gattuso, J.-P., Magnan, A., Bille, R., Cheung, W. W. L., Howes, E. L., Joos, F., Allemand, D., Bopp, L., Cooley, S. R., Eakin, C. M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kelly, R. P., Portner, H.-O., Rogers, A. D., Baxter, J. M., Laffoley, D., Osborn, D., Rankovic, A., Rochette, J., Sumaila, U. R., and Treyer, S.: Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios, Science, 349, aac4722, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4722, 2015.
Gourdji, S. M., Sibley, A. M., and Lobell, D. B.: Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 024041, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041, 2013.
Graham, N. A. J., Jennings, S., Macneil, M. A., Mouillot, D., and Wilson, S. K.: Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs, Nature, 518, 94–97, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14140, 2015.
Gregory, J. M. and Huybrechts, P.: Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 364, 1709–1732, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796, 2006.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., and Ruedy, R.: PNAS Plus: Perception of climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 109, E2415–E2423, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1205276109, 2012.
Hawkins, E., Joshi, M., and Frame, D.: Wetter then drier in some tropical areas, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 646–647, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2299, 2014.
Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.: Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming, J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, 2006.
Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., Timmermann, R., Determann, J., and Rae, J.: Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current, Nature, 485, 225–228, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11064, 2012.
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., and Piontek, F.: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-219-2013, 2013.
Herger, N., Sanderson, B. M., and Knutti, R.: Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 3486–3494, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063569, 2015.
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.: Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 3292–3297, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222469111, 2014.
Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S.: Global flood risk under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911, 2013.
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, in: A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp., 2012.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., IPCC AR WGI, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1–100, 2013.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, in: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp., 2014a.
IPCC: Summary for Policy Makers, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – Contributions of the Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y., Genova, R., Girma, B., Kissel, E., Levy, A., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.11.012, 2014b.
James, R. and Washington, R.: Changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with degrees of global warming, Climatic Change, 117, 859–872, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0581-7, 2013.
Jiménez Cisneros, B. E., Oki, T., Arnell, N. W., Benito, G., Cogley, J G., Döll, P., Jiang, T., and Mwakalila, S. S.: Freshwater resources, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 229–269, 2014.
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Underway for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, Science, 344, 735–388, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249055, 2014.
Kelley, C. P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M. A., Seager, R., and Kushnir, Y.: Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3241–3246 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421533112, 2015.
Kendon, E. J., Rowell, D. P., Jones, R. G., and Buonomo, E.: Robustness of Future Changes in Local Precipitation Extremes, J. Climate, 21, 4280–4297, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2082.1, 2008.
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., and Wehner, M.: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble, Climatic Change, 119, 345–357, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8, 2013.
Kiem, A. and Verdon-Kidd, D.: Towards understanding hydroclimatic change in Victoria, Australia – preliminary insights into the "Big Dry", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 433–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-433-2010, 2010.
King, A. D., Donat, M. G., Fischer, E. M., Hawkins, E., Alexander, L. V., Karoly, D. J., Dittus, A. J., Lewis, S. C., and Perkins, S. E.: The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 094015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015, 2015.
Knutson, T. R., McBride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J. P., Srivastava, A. K., and Sugi, M.: Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nat. Geosci., 3, 157–163, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779, 2010.
Knutti, R. and Sedláček, J.: Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 369–373, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716, 2012.
Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedláček, J., and Fischer, E. M.: A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target, Nat. Geosci., 9, 13–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2595, 2015.
Leakey, A. D. B., Uribelarrea, M., Ainsworth, E. A., Naidu, S. L., Rogers, A., Ort, D. R., and Long, S. P.: Photosynthesis, productivity, and yield of maize are not affected by open-air elevation of CO2 concentration in the absence of drought, Plant Physiol., 140, 779–790, https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.105.073957, 2006.
Lesk, C., Rowhani, P., and Ramankutty, N.: Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production, Nature, 529, 84–87, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16467, 2016.
Levermann, A., Clark, P. U., Marzeion, B., Milne, G. A., Pollard, D., Radic, V., and Robinson, A.: The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 13745–13750, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219414110, 2013.
Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., Nowicki, S., Fastook, J. L., Frieler, K., Greve, R., Hellmer, H. H., Martin, M. A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Sato, T., Timmermann, R., Wang, W. L., and Bindschadler, R. A.: Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014.
Lobell, D. B. and Tebaldi, C.: Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 074003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074003, 2014.
Lobell, D. B., Sibley, A., and Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, J.: Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 186–189, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1356, 2012.
Lopez, A., Suckling, E. B., and Smith, L. A.: Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support, Climatic Change, 122, 555–566, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y, 2013.
Marotzke, J. and Forster, P. M.: Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends, Nature, 517, 565–570, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14117, 2014.
Maynard, J., van Hooidonk, R., Eakin, C. M., Puotinen, M., Garren, M., Williams, G., Heron, S. F., Lamb, J., Weil, E., Willis, B., and Harvell, C. D.: Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 688–694, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2625, 2015.
McGrath, J. M. and Lobell, D. B.: Regional disparities in the CO2 fertilization effect and implications for crop yields, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014054, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014054, 2013.
McSweeney, C. F. and Jones, R. G.: How representative is the spread of climate projections from the 5 {CMIP5} {GCMs} used in ISI-MIP?, Climate Services, 1, 24–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.02.001, 2016.
Meehl, G., Stocker, T., Collins, W., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A., Gregory, J., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J., Noda, A., Raper, S., Watterson, I., Weaver, A., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global climate projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 10, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., and Miller, H., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 747–845, 2007.
Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S. C. B., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D. J., and Allen, M. R.: Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C, Nature, 458, 1158–1162, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08017, 2009.
Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L.: Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011, 2011.
Meissner, K. J., Lippmann, T., and Sen Gupta, A.: Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years, Coral Reefs, 31, 309–319, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-011-0866-8, 2012.
Mengel, M. and Levermann, A.: Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica, Nat. Clim. Change, 27, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2226, 2014.
Monfreda, C., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J.: Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB002947, 2008.
Moore, F. C. and Lobell, D. B.: The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 112, 2670–2675 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1409606112, 2015.
Mora, C., Frazier, A. G., Longman, R. J., Dacks, R. S., Walton, M. M., Tong, E. J., Sanchez, J. J., Kaiser, L. R., Stender, Y. O., Anderson, J. M., Ambrosino, C. M., Fernandez-Silva, I., Giuseffi, L. M., and Giambelluca, T. W.: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability, Nature, 502, 183–187, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540, 2013.
Mueller, B. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 12398–12403, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204330109, 2012.
Müller, C., Waha, K., Bondeau, A., and Heinke, J.: Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development, Global Change Biol., 20, 2505–2517, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12586, 2014.
Olsson, L., Opondo, M., Tschakert, P., Agrawal, A., Eriksen, S. H., Ma, S., Perch, L. N., and Zakieldeen, S. A.: Livelihoods and poverty, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 793–832, 2014.
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., and Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways, Climatic Change, 122, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2, 2013.
Oppenheimer, M., Campos, M., Warren, R., Birkmann, J., Luber, G., O'Neill, B., and Kikkawa, T.: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 19, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y., Genova, R., Girma, B., Kissel, E., Levy, A., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1039–1099, 2014.
Orlowsky, B. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension, Climatic Change, 110, 669–696, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0122-9, 2012.
Perrette, M., Landerer, F., Riva, R., Frieler, K., and Meinshausen, M.: A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-11-2013, 2013.
Porter, J., Liyong, X., Challinor, A., Cochrane, K., Howden, M., Iqbal, M., Lobell, D., and Travasso, M.: Food Security and Food Production Systems, in: IPCC 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chapter 7, Final Draft, October 2013, IPCC AR5 WGII, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 1–82, 2014.
Pörtner, H.-O., Karl, D. M., Boyd, P. W., Cheung, W. W. L., Lluch-Cota, S. E., Nojiri, Y., Schmidt, D. N., and Zavialov, P.: Ocean Systems, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 06, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y., Genova, R., Girma, B., Kissel, E., Levy, A., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 411–484, 2014.
Power, S., Delage, F., Chung, C., Kociuba, G., and Keay, K.: Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability, Nature, 502, 541–545, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12580, 2013.
Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hannah, D. M., Kim, H., Masaki, Y., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., and Wisser, D.: Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 3262–3267, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110, 2013.
Riahi, K., Grübler, A., and Nakicenovic, N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technol. Forecast. Social Change, 74, 887–935, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026, 2007.
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.: Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502–3509, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060140, 2014.
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 429–432, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1449, 2012.
Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., and Knutti, R.: Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 248–253, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1385, 2012.
Rogelj, J., McCollum, D. L., Reisinger, A., Meinshausen, M., and Riahi, K.: Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation, Nature, 493, 79–83, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11787, 2013.
Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Sedláček, J., and Knutti, R.: Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 031003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/031003, 2014.
Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 519–527, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2572, 2015.
Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K. J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., Neumann, K., Piontek, F., Pugh, T. A. M., Schmid, E., Stehfest, E., Yang, H., and Jones, J. W.: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 11, 3268–3273, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110, 2014.
Schaeffer, M., Hare, W., Rahmstorf, S., and Vermeer, M.: Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels, Nat. Clim. Change, 2 , 867–870, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1584, 2012.
Schellnhuber, H.-J., Hare, W. L., Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Coumou, D., Frieler, K., Marin, M., Otto, I. M., Perrette, M., Robinson, A., Rocha, M., Schaeffer, M., Schewe, J., Wang, X., and Warszawski, L.: Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 °C Warmer World Must be Avoided, Tech. rep., commissioned by the World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2012.
Schellnhuber, H. J., Hare, B., Serdeczny, O., Schaeffer, M., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Schwan, S., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Vieweg, M., and others: Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience, Tech. rep., commissioned by the World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2013.
Schellnhuber, H. J., Reyer, C., Hare, B., Waha, K., Otto, I. M., Serdeczny, O., Schaeffer, M., Schleuß ner, C.-F., Reckien, D., Marcus, R., Kit, O., Eden, A., Adams, S., Aich, V., Albrecht, T., Baarsch, F., Boit, A., Canales Trujillo, N., Cartsburg, M., Coumou, D., Fader, M., Hoff, H., Jobbins, G., Jones, L., Krummenauer, L., Langerwisch, F., Le Masson, V., Ludi, E., Mengel, M., Möhring, J., Mosello, B., Norton, A., Perette, M., Pereznieto, P., Rammig, A., Reinhardt, J., Robinson, A., Rocha, M., Sakschewski, B., Schaphoff, S., Schewe, J., Stagl, J., and Thonicke, K.: Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal, Tech. rep., commissioned by the World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2014.
Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D. B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Colon-Gonzalez, F. J., Gosling, S. N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Portmann, F. T., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Albrecht, T., Frieler, K., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., and Kabat, P.: Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 3245–3250, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110, 2014.
Schleussner, C.-F., Levermann, A., and Meinshausen, M.: Probabilistic Projections of the Atlantic Overturning, 127, 579–586, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2, 2014
Schleussner, C. F., Runge, J., Lehmann, J., and Levermann, A.: The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep-ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 967–1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-967-2013, 2014b.
SED: UNFCCC: Report on the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) on the 2013–2015 review, FCCC/SB/2015/INF.1, 2015.
Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Knutti, R., and Wilby, R. L.: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets, Nature, 1870, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542, 2016.
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., and Bronaugh, D.: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1716–1733, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203, 2013a.
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., and Bronaugh, D.: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2473–2493, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188, 2013b.
Sippel, S., Zscheischler, J., Heimann, M., Otto, F. E. L., Peters, J., and Mahecha, M. D.: Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9990–9998, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066307, 2015.
Smith, K. R., Woodward, A., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chadee, D., Honda, Y., Liu, Q., Olwoch, J., Revich, B., and Sauerborn, R.: Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits, in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chap. 11, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y., Genova, R., Girma, B., Kissel, E., Levy, A., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 709–754, 2014.
Tai, A. P. K., Martin, M. V., and Heald, C. L.: Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 817–821, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2317, 2014.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2011.
Tebaldi, C. and Arblaster, J. M.: Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations, Climatic Change, 122, 459–471, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9, 2014.
Tebaldi, C. and Friedlingstein, P.: Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, 17229–17234, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1300005110, 2013.
Tebaldi, C., Arblaster, J. M., and Knutti, R.: Mapping model agreement on future climate projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049863, 2011.
Teh, L. S. L., Teh, L. C. L., and Sumaila, U. R.: A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers, PLoS ONE, 8, e65397, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0065397, 2013.
Timmermann, R. and Hellmer, H. H.: Southern Ocean warming and increased ice shelf basal melting in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries based on coupled ice-ocean finite-element modelling, Ocean Dynam., 63, 1011–1026, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0642-0, 2013.
UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Framework Convention on Climate Change, United Nations (UN), New York, 1992.
UNFCCC: Decision 1/CP.21. The Paris Agreement, 2015.
Vaughan, M. M., Huffaker, A., Schmelz, E. A., Dafoe, N. J., Christensen, S., Sims, J., Martins, V. F., Swerbilow, J., Romero, M., Alborn, H. T., Allen, L. H., and Teal, P. E. A.: Effects of elevated CO2 on maize defence against mycotoxigenic Fusarium verticillioides, Plant Cell Environ., 37, 2691–2706, https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.12337, 2014.
Wada, Y., van Beek, L. P. H., Sperna Weiland, F. C., Chao, B. F., Wu, Y.-H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051230, 2012.
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe, J.: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): Project framework, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3228–3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2014.
Werner, A. D., Bakker, M., Post, V. E. A., Vandenbohede, A., Lu, C., Ataie-Ashtiani, B., Simmons, C. T., and Barry, D. A.: Seawater intrusion processes, investigation and management: Recent advances and future challenges, Adv. Water Resour., 51, 3-26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.03.004, 2013.
Wigley, T. M. L. and Raper, S. C. B.: Extended scenarios for glacier melt due to anthropogenic forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L05704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021238, 2005.
Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P., Tank, A. K., Peterson, T. C., Trewin, B., and Zwiers, F. W.: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2, 851–870, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147, 2011.
Zopa, S., Schulz, Y. B. M., and Cugnet, S. B. D.: Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2223–2250, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1408-y, 2013.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(12128 KB) - Full-text XML
- Corrigendum
-
Supplement
(11034 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Short summary
We present for the first time a comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We report substantial impact differences in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, regional water availability and agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. The increase in climate impacts is particularly pronounced in tropical and sub-tropical regions.
We present for the first time a comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint