The uncertainty of ocean carbon uptake in ESMs is projected to grow 2-fold by the end of the 21st century. We found that models that take up anomalously low (high) CO₂ in the Southern Ocean (SO) today project low (high) cumulative CO₂ uptake in the 21st century; thus the SO can be used to constrain future global uptake uncertainty. Inter-model spread in the SO carbon sink arises from variations in the pCO₂ seasonality, specifically bias in the simulated timing and amplitude of NPP and SST.

We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it.

We present for the first time a comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We report substantial impact differences in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, regional water availability and agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. The increase in climate impacts is particularly pronounced in tropical and sub-tropical regions.

We identify six past revolutions in energy input and material cycling in Earth and human history. We find that human energy use has now reached a magnitude comparable to the biosphere, and conclude that a prospective sustainability revolution will require scaling up new solar energy technologies and the development of much more efficient material recycling systems. Our work was inspired by recognising the connections between Earth system science and industrial ecology at the "LOOPS" workshop.

An atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs that affected western European coasts between 1979 and 2014. A Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main sources of moisture of the ARs that reach western European coasts. Results confirm not only the advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas but also the existence of a tropical one.

In this article it is discussed how temperature variability on centennial timescales and longer can be described in a simplistic way. By analysing the scaling in late Holocene temperature reconstructions and longer temperature records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores, we find that the choice of model depends heavily on the data material and timescale one chooses to emphasize. Ignoring data beyond the Holocene seems plausible when predicting temperature, but not for other purposes.

Climate change complicates rural conflict resolution dynamics and institutions. There is urgent need for conflict-sensitive adaptation in Africa. The study of social network data reveals three forms of fused conflict resolution arrangements in Loitoktok, Kenya. Where, extension officers, council of elders, local chiefs and private investors are potential conduits of knowledge. Efficiency of rural conflict resolution can be enhanced by diversification in conflict resolution actors and networks.

This paper analyses the behaviour of 12 tributaries of the Río Mamoré and their influence on alluvial plain dynamics. These rivers are extremely active: between 1984 and 2014, 7 of these 12 rivers underwent a total of 41 crevasses and 29 avulsions. Most of the sedimentary load of these rivers is deposited on the alluvial plains before they reach the Mamoré. Crevasses and avulsions are not controlled by ENSO cycles, but rather are the result of intrabasinal processes.

Most simulations of solar geoengineering prescribe a particular strategy and evaluate its modeled effects. Here we first choose example climate objectives and then design a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models. We show that certain objectives can be met simultaneously even in the presence of uncertainty, and the strategy for meeting those objectives can be ported to other models. This is part of a broader illustration of how uncertainties in solar geoengineering can be managed.

Working on the interface of water availability and water demand in a small Andean catchment, peasants’ reports on detrimental precipitation changes during the last decades have attracted our scientific interest. We could not confirm any precipitation trends in this period with nearby precipitation records, but we found precipitation patterns that very likely pose challenges for rain-fed farming – in addition to potential other stresses by environmental and sociopolitical changes.

We introduce a general technique to detect a climate change signal in the coherent and turbulent components of the atmospheric circulation. Our analysis suggests that the coherent components (atmospheric waves, long-term oscillations) will experience the greatest changes in future climate, proportionally to the greenhouse gas emission scenario considered.

Our analysis allows us to infer maps of changing plant water-use efficiency (WUE) for 1901–2010, using atmospheric observations of temperature, humidity and CO₂. Our estimated increase in global WUE is consistent with the tree-ring and eddy covariance data, but much larger than the historical WUE increases simulated by Earth System Models (ESMs). We therefore conclude that the effects of increasing CO₂ on plant WUE are significantly underestimated in the latest climate projections.