Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021
Research article
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14 Apr 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 14 Apr 2021

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann

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Cited articles

Acharya, P. and Sreekesh, S.: Seasonal variability in aerosol optical depth over India: a spatio-temporal analysis using the MODIS aerosol product, Int. J. Remote Sens., 34, 4832–4849, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2013.782114, 2013. a
Allan, R., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L., Wilcox, L. J., and Zolina, O.: Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change, Ann. NY. Acad. Sci., 1472, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337, 2020. a
Asharaf, S. and Ahrens, B.: Indian summer monsoon rainfall processes in climate change scenarios, J. Climate, 28, 5414–5429, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00233.1, 2015. a
Ashfaq, M., Rastogi, D., Mei, R., Touma, D., and Leung, L. R.: Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs, Clim. Dynam., 49, 193–223, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3337-7, 2017. a
Azad, S. and Rajeevan, M.: Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming, Scient. Rep., 6, 20145, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep20145, 2016. a
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Short summary
All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
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