Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Research article
02 Feb 2021
Research article |  | 02 Feb 2021

Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators

Peter Pfleiderer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Juliette Legrand, Natacha Legrix, Iason Markantonis, Edoardo Vignotto, and Pascal Yiou

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Cited articles

ARVALIS: Rendements catastrophiques du blé en 2016: la pluie, seule responsable?, available at: (last access: 23 October 2020), 2016 (in French). a
Ben-Ari, T., Adrian, J., Klein, T., Calanca, P., Van der Velde, M., and Makowski, D.: Identifying indicators for extreme wheat and maize yield losses, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 220, 130–140, 2016. a
Ben-Ari, T., Boé, J., Ciais, P., Lecerf, R., Van der Velde, M., and Makowski, D.: Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France, Nat. Commun., 9, 1627,, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811, 2005. a
Cooley, D.: Extreme value analysis and the study of climate change, Climatic Change, 97, 77–83, 2009. a
Short summary
In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. This crop loss was likely due to an extremely warm December 2015 and abnormally high precipitation during the following spring season. Using stochastic weather generators we investigate how severe the metrological conditions leading to the crop loss could be in current climate conditions. We find that December temperatures were close to the plausible maximum but that considerably wetter springs would be possible.
Final-revised paper