Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Feb 2021
Research article |
| 02 Feb 2021
| 02 Feb 2021
Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators
Peter Pfleiderer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
Department of Geography, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Aglaé Jézéquel
LMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Université, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, 75005 Paris, France
École des Ponts Paristech, 77420 Champs-sur-Marne, France
Juliette Legrand
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Natacha Legrix
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Iason Markantonis
INRASTES Department, National Centre of Scientific Research “Demokritos”, Aghia Paraskevi, Greece
Edoardo Vignotto
Research Center for Statistics, University of Geneva, Geneva, 1211, Switzerland
Pascal Yiou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Short summary
In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. This crop loss was likely due to an extremely warm December 2015 and abnormally high precipitation during the following spring season. Using stochastic weather generators we investigate how severe the metrological conditions leading to the crop loss could be in current climate conditions. We find that December temperatures were close to the plausible maximum but that considerably wetter springs would be possible.
In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. This crop loss was likely...
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