Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 103–120, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021

Special issue: Understanding compound weather and climate events and related...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 103–120, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021

Research article 02 Feb 2021

Research article | 02 Feb 2021

Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators

Peter Pfleiderer et al.

Related authors

Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks
Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tobias Geiger, and Marlene Kretschmer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamics of the Earth system: models
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Characterisation of Atlantic meridional overturning hysteresis using Langevin dynamics
Jelle van den Berk, Sybren Drijfhout, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-69-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-69-2021, 2021
Short summary
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
First Assessment of the Earth Heat Inventory Within CMIP5 Historical Simulations
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-88,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-88, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary

Cited articles

ARVALIS: Rendements catastrophiques du blé en 2016: la pluie, seule responsable?, available at: https://www.semencesdefrance.com/actualite-semences-de-france/rendements-catastrophiques-ble-2016-pluie-seule-responsable/ (last access: 23 October 2020), 2016 (in French). a
Ben-Ari, T., Adrian, J., Klein, T., Calanca, P., Van der Velde, M., and Makowski, D.: Identifying indicators for extreme wheat and maize yield losses, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 220, 130–140, 2016. a
Ben-Ari, T., Boé, J., Ciais, P., Lecerf, R., Van der Velde, M., and Makowski, D.: Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France, Nat. Commun., 9, 1627, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04087-x, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811, 2005. a
Cooley, D.: Extreme value analysis and the study of climate change, Climatic Change, 97, 77–83, 2009. a
Download
Short summary
In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. This crop loss was likely due to an extremely warm December 2015 and abnormally high precipitation during the following spring season. Using stochastic weather generators we investigate how severe the metrological conditions leading to the crop loss could be in current climate conditions. We find that December temperatures were close to the plausible maximum but that considerably wetter springs would be possible.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint