Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators

Pfleiderer, Peter; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Legrand, Juliette; Legrix, Natacha; Markantonis, Iason; Vignotto, Edoardo; Yiou, Pascal

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Understanding compound weather and climate events and related...

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

Research article

|

02 Feb 2021

Research article |

| 02 Feb 2021

Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators

Peter Pfleiderer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Juliette Legrand, Natacha Legrix, Iason Markantonis, Edoardo Vignotto, and Pascal Yiou

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021-supplement

Model code and software

analogues_of_2016_crop_failure_in_France P. Pfleiderer, A. Jézéquel, J. Legrand, N. Legrix, I. Markantonis, E. Vignotto, and P. Yiou https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4327671

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Short summary

In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. This crop loss was likely due to an extremely warm December 2015 and abnormally high precipitation during the following spring season. Using stochastic weather generators we investigate how severe the metrological conditions leading to the crop loss could be in current climate conditions. We find that December temperatures were close to the plausible maximum but that considerably wetter springs would be possible.