Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, 2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, 2020

Research article 17 Aug 2020

Research article | 17 Aug 2020

Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse et al.

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Cited articles

Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D., and Cox, P. M.: Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future, Nature, 435, 1187–1190,, 2005. a
Armour, K. C.: Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 331–335,, 2017. a
Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson-Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K., Christensen, M., Daniau, A., Dufresne, J., Feingold, G., Fiedler, S., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Haywood, J., Malavelle, F., Lohmann, U., Mauritsen, T., McCoy, D., Myhre, G., Mülmenstädt, J., Neubauer, D., Possner, A., Rugenstein, M., Sato, Y., Schulz, M., Schwartz, S., Sourdeval, O., Storelvmo, T., Toll, V., Winker, D., and Stevens, B.: Bounding aerosol radiative forcing of climate change, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000660,, 2019. a
Bengtsson, L. and Schwartz, S. E.: Determination of a lower bound on Earth's climate sensitivity, Tellus B, 65, 1–16,, 2013. a
Bretherton, C. and Caldwell, P.: Combining Emergent Constraints for Climate Sensitivity, J. Climate, 33, 7413–7430,, 2020. a
Short summary
One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.
Final-revised paper