Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Research article
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17 Aug 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 17 Aug 2020

Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson

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Short summary
One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.
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