Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Peter M. Cox
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Mark S. Williamson
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
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Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
Short summary
One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.
One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given...
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