140 citations as recorded by crossref.

1. Evaluating future water availability in Texas through the lens of a data-driven approach leveraged with CMIP6 general circulation models W. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171136
2. Common Error Patterns in the Regional Atmospheric Circulation Simulated by the CMIP Multi‐Model Ensemble S. Brands https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101446
3. Reducing uncertainty in surface solar radiation projections over the Northern Hemisphere using a hierarchical emergent constraint: Insights from CMIP6 and observation reconstruction B. Jiao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108594
4. Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6? M. Williamson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024
5. Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response K. Li & K. Tung https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43583-7
6. Probabilistic Simulations and Projections of Global Temperature Based on Greenhouse Gases H. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70097
7. Projecting Global Mean Sea‐Level Change Using CMIP6 Models T. Hermans et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092064
8. Projections of Future Marine Heatwaves for the Oceans Around New Zealand Using New Zealand's Earth System Model E. Behrens et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.798287
9. Observational constraint on climate model projections of global compound hot–dry events and the socioeconomic risks under climate change L. Yao et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7f72
10. Attributing heatwave-related mortality to climate change: a case study of the 2009 Victorian heatwave in Australia S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ada8cd
11. Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability G. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01398-2
12. Biogeodynamics-Ice sheet-Geneva-MITgcm (BIG-MITgcm, v1.0): a simulation tool for exploring climate states with a representation of global ice sheets L. Moinat et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4357-2026
13. Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery K. Debeire et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-607-2025
14. Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model K. Dorheim et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024
15. A re-evaluation of the Earth’s surface temperature response to radiative forcing P. Young et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfa50
16. Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming Y. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02017-y
17. Reducing uncertainty in local temperature projections S. Qasmi & A. Ribes https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo6872
18. An Approach for Selecting Observationally-Constrained Global Climate Model Ensembles for Regional Climate Impacts and Adaptation Studies in Canada D. Jeong & A. Cannon https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2023.2239194
19. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
20. AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations E. Farago et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025
21. CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures N. Scafetta https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06493-w
22. Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations G. Seo et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01067-z
23. Emergent constraints on global soil moisture projections under climate change L. Yao et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02024-7
24. High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections H. Beck et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02549-6
25. Ensemble Numerical Experiments with Earth System Models A. Eliseev https://doi.org/10.1007/s11141-026-10472-0
26. Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity K. Armour et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312093121
27. Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes H. Shiogama et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04310-8
28. Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming C. Kaufhold et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be
29. Combined emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation changes H. Shiogama et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60385-1
30. Unraveling Climate Risks to Cotton Yield in Arid Northwest China: Projections and Driving Factors S. Yue et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-01011-4
31. Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5‐T2m N. Scafetta https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716
32. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates C. McKenna et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9
33. Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change R. Wills et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011
34. Selecting CMIP6-Based Future Climate Scenarios for Impact and Adaptation Studies H. Shiogama et al. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2021-009
35. Empowering Students to Understand Climate Change and Recognize Disinformation H. Jakubowski & N. Bock https://doi.org/10.1525/abt.2024.86.8.477
36. The Northwestern Pacific Warming Record in August 2020 Occurred Under Anthropogenic Forcing M. Hayashi et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090956
37. Range Dynamics of Striped Field Mouse (Apodemus agrarius) in Northern Eurasia under Global Climate Change Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models V. Petrosyan et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology12071034
38. Mapping the safe operating space of marine ecosystems under contrasting emission pathways T. Bourgeois et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5435-2025
39. Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100 L. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003563
40. Constraint on regional land surface air temperature projections in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble J. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00410-6
41. Climate sensitivity indices and their relation with projected temperature change in CMIP6 models L. Huusko et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0748
42. Constraints on regional projections of mean and extreme precipitation under warming P. Dai et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2312400121
43. Increasingly Sophisticated Climate Models Need the Out‐Of‐Sample Tests Paleoclimates Provide N. Burls & N. Sagoo https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003389
44. Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States A. Wootten et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-121-2023
45. Linear and Nonlinear Aspects of Climate Response to External Forcings A. Eliseev https://doi.org/10.1007/s11141-023-10277-5
46. Assessing the warming biases in CMIP6 models: the roles of fast response and cumulative effects to external forcings J. Yan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01390-z
47. Emergent Constraints on Future Changes in Several Climate Variables and Extreme Indices from Global to Regional Scales H. Shiogama et al. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2024-017
48. Stochastic Methods and Complexity Science in Climate Research and Modeling C. Franzke et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2022.931596
49. Comparison of Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice between the last nine interglacials and the future Z. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06140-4
50. Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum J. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091220
51. Emergent constraints on future change projections of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation in the global maize harvesting area H. Shiogama et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3194
52. Transferring climate change physical knowledge F. Immorlano et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2413503122
53. Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate L. McBride et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
54. How well have CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6 future climate projections portrayed the recently observed warming D. Carvalho et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16264-6
55. Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research F. Lehner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111113
56. Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan E. Pihl et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.2
57. Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles S. Talento & A. Ganopolski https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
58. Developing Guidelines for working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP A. Katzenberger et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-495-2026
59. Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment M. Zelinka et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035198
60. Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change G. Gründemann et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00558-8
61. The Climate Response to the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption Does Not Constrain Climate Sensitivity A. Pauling et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102946
62. Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
63. Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem Z. Hausfather et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2
64. Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance B. Sanderson & M. Rugenstein https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022
65. The pace of meeting carbon emission targets alters regional climate risks I. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aec4566
66. A chance to “cure” local climate systems and reconcile humanity with Nature Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1045/1/012154
67. Constraining future surface air temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6677
68. Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Meltwater Reduces Transient Warming and Climate Sensitivity Through the Sea‐Surface Temperature Pattern Effect Y. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101249
69. Advanced photovoltaic technology can reduce land requirements and climate impact on energy generation A. Saxena et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01754-4
70. Impact of major tropical volcanic eruptions on air temperatures in the Middle East G. Roshan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01954-2
71. Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models J. Jägermeyr et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y
72. Southern Ocean heat sink hindered by melting ice J. Russell https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-00835-2
73. Croll, feedback mechanisms, climate change and the future R. THOMPSON https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755691021000153
74. Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories P. Goodwin https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgab007
75. Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections M. Sparey et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023
76. Escalating heat stress in Middle East–North Africa under global warming A. Ntoumos et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/29931495.2025.2610922
77. A framework to inform economic valuation of non-use benefits from coral reef intervention efforts R. Heneghan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-026-02844-9
78. Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence L. Brunner et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
79. Climate Sensitivity through the Lens of Measurement Practice M. Ackermann https://doi.org/10.1086/738572
80. Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity E. Massoud et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01009-8
81. Optimal reliability ensemble averaging approach for robust climate projections over China Y. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8485
82. Are Economists Getting Climate Dynamics Right and Does It Matter? S. Dietz et al. https://doi.org/10.1086/713977
83. An Assessment of the Oceanic Physical and Biogeochemical Components of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models for the Ross Sea Region G. Rickard et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018880
84. Temperature Thresholds for Carbon Flux Variation and Warming‐Induced Changes C. Fu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039747
85. Human-induced climate change has decreased wheat production in northern Kazakhstan P. Romanovska et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f7
86. Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration C. Beer https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025
87. A simple framework for likely climate projections applied to tropical width D. Baldassare & T. Reichler https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07335-7
88. Modified cost-risk analysis as a bridge between target-based and trade-off-based decision-making frameworks V. Avakumović & B. Blanz https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04138-z
89. Intermodel relation between present-day warm pool intensity and future precipitation changes G. Pathirana et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06918-0
90. Analysis of Climate Trends from 1981 to 2050 for Precipitation and Temperatures in the Mouhoun Watershed (Samandeni, Burkina Faso) Based on CMIP6 Simulations Corrected Using NEX-GDDP D. Somda et al. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojmh.2026.162011
91. Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity J. Terhaar et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd5964
92. Biogeochemical and Physical Assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Ocean Components for the Southwest Pacific Ocean G. Rickard et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG007123
93. Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to stringent climate mitigation G. Romanzini-Bezerra & A. Maycock https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50648-8
94. Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target J. Terhaar et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9
95. Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios C. Koven et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
96. Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening R. Bonnet et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0
97. Machine learning helps to strongly reduce future warming uncertainty C. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70205-9
98. Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations M. Donat et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463
99. Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
100. Emergent Constraints on Regional Cloud Feedbacks N. Lutsko et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092934
101. A Holistic View of Climate Sensitivity N. Jeevanjee et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-040523-014302
102. Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record K. Lyu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01151-1
103. FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration N. Leach et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021
104. Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models I. Parry et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022
105. Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century N. Scafetta https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101774
106. CMIP6 GCM Validation Based on ECS and TCR Ranking for 21st Century Temperature Projections and Risk Assessment N. Scafetta https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020345
107. A Comparison of Regional Climate Projections With a Range of Climate Sensitivities C. Barnes et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038917
108. Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s J. Terhaar et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55297-5
109. The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
110. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns and hydrological whiplashes in the Western U.S. W. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06087-6
111. Climate change signals of extreme precipitation return levels for Germany in a transient convection‐permitting simulation ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8393
112. network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity L. Ricard et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50813-z
113. Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6 H. Douglas et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca91e
114. CMIP6 simulations with the compact Earth system model OSCAR v3.1 Y. Quilcaille et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023
115. Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950 M. Stolpe et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05493-y
116. CMIP6 Simulations With the CMCC Earth System Model (CMCC‐ESM2) T. Lovato et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002814
117. The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ M. Willeit et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022
118. Exploring land surface air temperature changes: a detailed trend analysis through the lens of long-term memory C. Ma & N. Yuan https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07791-9
119. Climate data uncertainty for agricultural impact assessments in West Africa P. Romanovska et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04430-3
120. Concerning prognostic estimations on hazardous weather events: a road to nowhere or to home? Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1070/1/012019
121. Uncertainty constraints on economic impact assessments of climate change simulated by an impact emulator H. Shiogama et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca68d
122. Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent L. Vogt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025
123. Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback B. Cael et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adf9302
124. Global Increase of the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones under Global Warming Based on their Maximum Potential Intensity and CMIP6 Models A. Pérez-Alarcón et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-023-00649-4
125. Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone increases drive Southern Ocean interior warming W. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01320-w
126. On the choice of TLS versus OLS in climate signal detection regression R. McKitrick https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06315-z
127. Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany M. Hundhausen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023
128. Indian Ocean dynamic sea level, its variability and projections in CMIP6 models C. Sajidh & A. Chatterjee https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06676-z
129. The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
130. Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity A. Zehrung et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9433-2025
131. Emergent constraints on the future East Asian winter surface air temperature changes A. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad4a91
132. Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming P. Cox et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7
133. An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint A. Ribes et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
134. Machine learning of cloud types in satellite observations and climate models P. Kuma et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-523-2023
135. Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective M. Rahimpour Asenjan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023
136. Amazon forest faces severe decline under the dual pressures of anthropogenic climate change and land-use change S. Bultan et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2418813122
137. Present-day warm pool constrains future tropical precipitation I. Park et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00620-5
138. Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations C. Huntingford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023
139. Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6 M. Rypdal et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.686058
140. Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets P. Goodwin & B. Cael https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021