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ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 267–283, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 267–283, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 19 Mar 2018

Research article | 19 Mar 2018

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

Wenbin Liu et al.

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Cited articles

Aghakouchat, A., Cheng L., Mazdiyasni, O., and Farahmand, A.: Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: insights from the 2014 California drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8847–8852, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062308, 2015. 
Allen, R., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 1998. 
Ault, T. R., Mankin, J. S., Cook, B. I., and Smerdon, J. E.: Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Sci. Adv., 2, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1600873, 2016. 
Ayantobo, O. O., Li, Y., Song, S. B., and Yao, N.: Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961–2013, J. Hydrol., 550, 549–567, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.019, 2017. 
Cheng, L., Hoerling, M., Aghakouchak, A., Livneh, B., Quan, X. W., and Eischeid, J.: How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk?, J. Climate, 29, 111–120, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0260.1, 2016. 
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This study is the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought at 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds using CMIP5 models. By keeping the warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, the risks of drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease at global and regional scales. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.
This study is the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought at 1.5 and 2 °C...
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