Global drought and severe drought-affected  populations in 1.5 and 2&thinsp;°C warmer worlds

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

Research article

|

19 Mar 2018

Research article |

| 19 Mar 2018

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Wee Ho Lim, Jie Zhang, Hong Wang, Hideo Shiogama, and Yuqing Zhang

Data sets

Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways B. Jones and B. C. O'Neill https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design L. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

Short summary

This study is the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought at 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds using CMIP5 models. By keeping the warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, the risks of drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease at global and regional scales. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.