Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds
Wenbin Liu
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Fubao Sun
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Ecology Institute of Qilian Mountain, Hexi University, Zhangye, China
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Center for Water Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Wee Ho Lim
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Jie Zhang
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Hong Wang
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Hideo Shiogama
Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Yuqing Zhang
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
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126 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Response of Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency to Drought over China during 1982–2015: Spatiotemporal Variability and Resilience L. Guo et al. 10.3390/f10070598
- Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming A. Takeshima et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9db3
- Quantifying the Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activities to Drought Extremes, Using an Improved Evaluation Framework S. Zhu et al. 10.1007/s11269-019-02413-6
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- Increased adversely-affected population from water shortage below normal conditions in China with anthropogenic warming W. Liu & F. Sun 10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.007
- OsGSTU17, a Tau Class Glutathione S-Transferase Gene, Positively Regulates Drought Stress Tolerance in Oryza sativa J. Li et al. 10.3390/plants12173166
- Multi-scale assessment of eco-hydrological resilience to drought in China over the last three decades W. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.408
- Vegetation in Arid Areas of the Loess Plateau Showed More Sensitivity of Water-Use Efficiency to Seasonal Drought T. Pei et al. 10.3390/f13050634
- Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future B. Cook et al. 10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2
- On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble S. Aadhar & V. Mishra 10.1029/2020JD033587
- Trivariate Analysis of Changes in Drought Characteristics in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble at Global Warming Levels of 1.5°, 2°, and 3°C H. Tabari & P. Willems 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0993.1
- Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia R. Zhang et al. 10.3390/su11164421
- Vulnerability of vegetation activities to drought in Central Asia H. Deng et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab93fa
- Improved Hidden Markov Model Incorporated with Copula for Probabilistic Seasonal Drought Forecasting S. Zhu et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001901
- Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean A. Hochman et al. 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022
- Attributing changes in future extreme droughts based on PDSI in China J. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.060
- Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world J. Grünzweig et al. 10.1038/s41559-022-01779-y
- Sustainable development substantially reduces the risk of future drought impacts H. Tabari & P. Willems 10.1038/s43247-023-00840-3
- Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Scenarios L. Miao et al. 10.1029/2019EF001337
- Exogenous Glutathione-Mediated Drought Stress Tolerance in Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is Associated with Lower Oxidative Damage and Favorable Ionic Homeostasis A. Sohag et al. 10.1007/s40995-020-00917-0
- Evaluation and projection of precipitation extremes under 1.5°C and 2.0°C GWLs over China using bias-corrected CMIP6 models J. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106179
- Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change H. Tabari et al. 10.1029/2021EF002295
- A WUSCHEL-related homeobox transcription factor, SlWOX4, negatively regulates drought tolerance in tomato H. Li et al. 10.1007/s00299-024-03333-5
- Living in Mediterranean cities in the context of climate change: A review P. Nastos & H. Saaroni 10.1002/joc.8546
- Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation‐CO2 feedback T. Wang & F. Sun 10.1002/joc.8174
- The Economics of 1.5°C Climate Change S. Dietz et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025817
- Scalability of future climate changes across Japan examined with large-ensemble simulations at + 1.5 K, +2 K, and + 4 K global warming levels M. Nosaka et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00341-3
- Physiological and biochemical changes of Picea abies (L.) during acute drought stress and their correlation with susceptibility to Ips typographus (L.) and I. duplicatus (Sahlberg) S. Basile et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1436110
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Latest update: 12 Nov 2024
Short summary
This study is the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought at 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds using CMIP5 models. By keeping the warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, the risks of drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease at global and regional scales. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.
This study is the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought at 1.5 and 2 °C...
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