Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Research article
29 Jan 2016
Research article |  | 29 Jan 2016

Global warming projections derived from an observation-based minimal model

K. Rypdal

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Cited articles

Archer, D.: The Global Carbon Cycle, Princeton Primers in Climate, Princeton University Press, Princeton, Chapter 12, 287–295, 2010.
Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A., Meinshausen, M., and Meinshausen, N.: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne, Nature, 458, 1163–1166,, 2009.
Anderegg, W. R. L., Prall, J. W, Harold, J., and Schneider, S. H.: Expert credibility in climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 107, 12107–12109,, 2010.
Bender, M. L.: Paleoclimate, Princeton Primers in Climate, Princeton University Press, Princeton, Chapter 10, 235–263, 2013.
Beran, J.: Statistics for Long-memory Processes, Monographs on statistics and applied probability, Chapman& Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, 1994.
Short summary
A conceptual model for the global temperature response to CO2 emissions is presented. Based on observation data, projections of future warming are computed for instructive emission scenarios. Delays in the initiation of global emission reduction is found to be the most important factor driving global warming over the next 2 centuries. The model is intended as a tool for communicating the issue to non-climatologists, students, policy makers, and the general public.
Final-revised paper