Observations show an increasing imbalance between how much energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and emits back to space, leading to climate change. We evaluate how well climate models simulate both the magnitude and trend of the imbalance. We find that models capture the magnitude but underestimate the trend, which is not related to how models handle volcanic aerosols when switching to future scenarios. The models that best simulate the magnitude are the ones with moderate climate sensitivity.

Europe is warming faster than the global average, raising concerns about future wildfire risks. Using regional climate models, we find that extreme fire weather is projected to become more severe, more frequent, and more widespread across the continent, especially if global warming reaches 3 °C. The projected increase is mainly linked to a drier atmosphere. Our findings highlight the need to limit warming and strengthen adaptation practices to protect vulnerable ecosystems and communities.