doi:https://doi.org/

16 Apr 2025

A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern

E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (16 comments)

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24 Feb 2025

Critique of 'Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history': Best available historical data shows major differences pre-1970, raising new questions

Brian P. Hanley

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-699,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-699, 2025

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 16 comments)

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25 Jun 2024

A simple physical model for glacial cycles

Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1842,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1842, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 13 comments)

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14 Jun 2024

Unveiling amplified isolation in climate networks due to global warming

Yifan Cheng, Panjie Qiao, Meiyi Hou, Yuan Chen, Wenqi Liu, and Yongwen Zhang

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 779–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-779-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-779-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (13 comments)

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12 Jul 2024

ESD Ideas: Positive tipping points towards global regenerative systems

J. David Tàbara

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 853–857, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (11 comments)

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02 Jan 2025

Climate Oscillations influence on GOM Circulation

Gabriel Gallegos D. B. and Alejandro Jose Souza

Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-38,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-38, 2025

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 10 comments)

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06 Dec 2024

100-kyr ice age cycles as a timescale matching problem

Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix

Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 9 comments)

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18 Oct 2024

| Highlight paper

Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy

Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (9 comments)

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26 Jun 2024

Underestimation of Anaerobic Decomposition Rates in Sphagnum Litterbag Experiments by the Holocene Peatland Model Depends on Initial Leaching Losses

Henning Teickner, Edzer Pebesma, and Klaus-Holger Knorr

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1739,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1739, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 9 comments)

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23 Apr 2025

Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea

Jakub Miluch, Wenyan Zhang, Jan Harff, Andreas Groh, Peter Arlinghaus, and Celine Denker

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 585–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)

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26 Feb 2025

Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity

Kate Marvel and Mark Webb

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 317–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)

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21 Jan 2025

Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic

Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)

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28 Nov 2024

Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state

Mark S. Williamson and Timothy M. Lenton

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1483–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)

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12 Nov 2024

Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)

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10 Oct 2024

Influence of Floodplains and Groundwater Dynamics on the Present-Day Climate simulated by the CNRM Model

Bertrand Decharme and Jeanne Colin

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3091,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3091, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)

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02 Sep 2024

Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes

Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2540,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2540, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)

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06 May 2025

Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm

Jerome Sauer, François Massonnet, Giuseppe Zappa, and Francesco Ragone

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 683–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (7 comments)

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07 Jan 2025

A first attempt to model global hydrology at hyper-resolution

Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jannis Hoch, Bram Droppers, Joren Janzing, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 29–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (7 comments)

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15 Oct 2024

ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters

Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, 2024

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 7 comments)

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15 Oct 2024

| Highlight paper

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Abigail Snyder, Noah Prime, Claudia Tebaldi, and Kalyn Dorheim

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1301–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (7 comments)

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14 Oct 2024

A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: Application to relationships between atmospheric and marine biogeochemical variables

Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac

Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-31,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-31, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: closed, 7 comments)

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03 Apr 2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

John D. Jakeman, Mauro Perego, D. Thomas Seidl, Tucker A. Hartland, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Stephen F. Price

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-513-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-513-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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03 Apr 2025

Changes in extreme precipitation patterns over the Greater Antilles and teleconnection with large-scale sea surface temperature

Carlo Destouches, Arona Diedhiou, Sandrine Anquetin, Benoit Hingray, Armand Pierre, Dominique Boisson, and Adermus Joseph

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 497–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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28 Mar 2025

| Highlight paper

Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences

Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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13 Mar 2025

Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling

Yongchao Zeng, Calum Brown, Joanna Raymond, Mohamed Byari, Ronja Hotz, and Mark Rounsevell

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 423–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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18 Feb 2025

Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability

Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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09 Jan 2025

Chaotic oceanic excitation of low-frequency polar motion variability

Lara Börger, Michael Schindelegger, Mengnan Zhao, Rui M. Ponte, Anno Löcher, Bernd Uebbing, Jean-Marc Molines, and Thierry Penduff

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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18 Dec 2024

AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization

Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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02 Dec 2024

Inconclusive Early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores

Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, 2024

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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29 Nov 2024

Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models

Juliette Deman and Julien Boé

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3225,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3225, 2024

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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30 Oct 2024

Future changes in spatiotemporal precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors

Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min

Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-34,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-34, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: closed, 6 comments)

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02 Oct 2024

Snowball Earth transitions from Last Glacial Maximum conditions provide an independent upper limit on Earth’s climate sensitivity

Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Johannes Hörner, and Thorsten Mauritsen

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2981,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2981, 2024

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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27 Sep 2024

Ocean biogeochemical reconstructions to estimate historical ocean CO₂ uptake

Raffaele Bernardello, Valentina Sicardi, Vladimir Lapin, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Etienne Tourigny, and Eric Ferrer

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1255–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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23 Sep 2024

Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model

Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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12 Sep 2024

| ESD Letters

Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics

Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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19 Aug 2024

Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework

Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan C. Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2441, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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19 Aug 2024

| Highlight paper

Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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16 Aug 2024

Regionally optimized high-resolution input datasets enhance the representation of snow cover in CLM5

Johanna Teresa Malle, Giulia Mazzotti, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, and Tobias Jonas

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1073–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1073-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1073-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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06 Aug 2024

| ESD Letters

| Highlight paper

Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming

Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michael E. Mann, and Dmitry Volobuev

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1015–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1015-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1015-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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06 Aug 2024

Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models

Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 987–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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02 Aug 2024

Missing the (tipping) point: the effect of information about climate tipping points on public risk perceptions in Norway

Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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30 Jul 2024

Tipping points in coupled human–environment system models: a review

Isaiah Farahbakhsh, Chris T. Bauch, and Madhur Anand

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 947–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-947-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-947-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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26 Jul 2024

Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2079,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2079, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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19 Jul 2024

Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds

Kerstin Monika Lux-Gottschalk and Paul David Longden Ritchie

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2170,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2170, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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05 Jun 2024

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1569,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1569, 2024

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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29 May 2024

Carbon-climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis-Menten kinetics of respiration

Christian Beer

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1504,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1504, 2024

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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27 May 2024

Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Ann Kristin Klose, Jonathan F. Donges, Ulrike Feudel, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 635–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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21 May 2024

Classification of synoptic circulation patterns with a two-stage clustering algorithm using the modified structural similarity index metric (SSIM)

Kristina Winderlich, Clementine Dalelane, and Andreas Walter

Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 607–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-607-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-607-2024, 2024

Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)

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14 Mar 2025

Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled

Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, 2025

Final revised paper published in ESD (5 comments)

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10 Feb 2025

Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and standardized precipitation index by constraining transient climate model simulations

Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-319,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-319, 2025

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments)

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