Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
Research article
19 Oct 2022
Research article | 19 Oct 2022

Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system

Rashed Mahmood et al.

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Cited articles

Befort, D. J., O'Reilly, C. H., and Weisheimer, A.: Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087900, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087900, 2020. 
Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., and Eade, R.: The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3751–3777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016, 2016. 
Borchert, L. F., Koul, V., Menary, M. B., Befort, D. J., Swingedouw, D., Sgubin, G., and Mignot, J.: Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 104017, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5, 2021. 
Climate Research Unit: Temperature, Climate Research Unit [data set], https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ (last access: October 2022), 2022a. 
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Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
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