Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Research article
19 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 19 Oct 2022

Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system

Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière

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Cited articles

Befort, D. J., O'Reilly, C. H., and Weisheimer, A.: Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087900,, 2020. 
Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y., and Eade, R.: The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3751–3777,, 2016. 
Borchert, L. F., Koul, V., Menary, M. B., Befort, D. J., Swingedouw, D., Sgubin, G., and Mignot, J.: Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 104017,, 2021. 
Climate Research Unit: Temperature, Climate Research Unit [data set], (last access: October 2022), 2022a. 
Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Final-revised paper