Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
Research article
19 Oct 2022
Research article | 19 Oct 2022

Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system

Rashed Mahmood et al.

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Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
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