Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Research article
 | 
19 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 19 Oct 2022

Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system

Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière

Viewed

Total article views: 2,700 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
2,187 470 43 2,700 162 40 34
  • HTML: 2,187
  • PDF: 470
  • XML: 43
  • Total: 2,700
  • Supplement: 162
  • BibTeX: 40
  • EndNote: 34
Views and downloads (calculated since 11 Apr 2022)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 11 Apr 2022)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 2,700 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,622 with geography defined and 78 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Latest update: 29 Jun 2024
Download
Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Read more
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint