Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
Research article
19 Oct 2022
Research article | 19 Oct 2022

Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system

Rashed Mahmood et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-98', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-98', Anonymous Referee #2, 31 May 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-98', Anonymous Referee #3, 01 Jun 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (11 Jul 2022) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Rashed Mahmood on behalf of the Authors (28 Jul 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (31 Jul 2022) by Gabriele Messori
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (15 Aug 2022)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (10 Sep 2022)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (13 Sep 2022) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Rashed Mahmood on behalf of the Authors (23 Sep 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (28 Sep 2022) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Rashed Mahmood on behalf of the Authors (04 Oct 2022)  Author's response    Manuscript
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Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
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