Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Research article
06 Dec 2021
Research article |  | 06 Dec 2021

Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change

Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk

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Cited articles

Allakhverdiev, S. I., Kreslavski, V. D., Klimov, V. V., Los, D. A., Carpentier, R., and Mohanty, P.: Heat stress: an overview of molecular responses in photosynthesis, Photosynth. Res., 98, 541–550, 2008. a
Anderson, M. J.: A new method for non-parametric multivariate analysis of variance, Austral. Ecol., 26, 32–46,, 2001. a
Arneth, A., Balkovic, J., Ciais, P., de Wit, A., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Jones, A. D., Khabarov, N., Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Mitter, H., Müller, C., Olin, S., Pugh, T. A. M., Reddy, A. D., Sakurai, G., Schmid, E., Wang, X., Wu, X., Yang, H., and Büchner, M.: ISIMIP2a Simulation Data from Agricultural Sector, GFZ Data Services [data set],, 2017. a
Balkovič, J., van der Velde, M., Skalský, R., Xiong, W., Folberth, C., Khabarov, N., Smirnov, A., Mueller, N. D., and Obersteiner, M.: Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways, Global Planet. Change, 122, 107–121,, 2014. a
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Final-revised paper