Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 06 Dec 2021
| 06 Dec 2021
Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change
Henrique M. D. Goulart
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Karin van der Wiel
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Christian Folberth
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria
Juraj Balkovic
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria
Bart van den Hurk
Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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- Object-oriented analysis as a foundation for building climate storylines of compounding short-term drought and crop heat stress B. Fisel et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1357391
- Proposed solutions to anthropogenic climate change: A systematic literature review and a new way forward S. Feigin et al. 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20544
- Projecting impacts of extreme weather events on crop yields using LASSO regression J. Heilemann et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100738
- Climate deterioration and subsistence economy in prehistoric Southern Iberia: an evaluation of potential links based on regional trajectories J. Schirrmacher et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4fa3
- Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach1 L. Melo‐Velandia et al. 10.1111/agec.12753
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- Increased probability and severity of compound dry and hot growing seasons over world's major croplands Y. He et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153885
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- Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China E. Coughlan de Perez et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00361-y
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- Towards a Disaster Risk Management Pathways Framework for Complex and Dynamic Multi-Risk: DAPP-MR J. Schlumberger et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4164233
- Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events B. van den Hurk et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500
- Critical water contents at leaf, stem and root level leading to irreversible drought‐induced damage in two woody and one herbaceous species P. Trifilò et al. 10.1111/pce.14469
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- A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events A. Bastos et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3
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- Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi‐Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview M. de Brito et al. 10.1029/2023EF003906
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- Large increases of multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate K. van der Wiel et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06373-3
34 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk J. Schlumberger et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105219
- Object-oriented analysis as a foundation for building climate storylines of compounding short-term drought and crop heat stress B. Fisel et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1357391
- Proposed solutions to anthropogenic climate change: A systematic literature review and a new way forward S. Feigin et al. 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20544
- Projecting impacts of extreme weather events on crop yields using LASSO regression J. Heilemann et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100738
- Climate deterioration and subsistence economy in prehistoric Southern Iberia: an evaluation of potential links based on regional trajectories J. Schirrmacher et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4fa3
- Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach1 L. Melo‐Velandia et al. 10.1111/agec.12753
- Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain W. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130074
- Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts Z. Hao et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241
- Intensified future heat extremes linked with increasing ecosystem water limitation J. Denissen et al. 10.5194/esd-15-717-2024
- Increased probability and severity of compound dry and hot growing seasons over world's major croplands Y. He et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153885
- Tackling AMR: A Call for a(n Even) More Integrated and Transdisciplinary Approach between Planetary Health and Earth Scientists J. Cole et al. 10.3390/challe13020066
- A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger S. Bakke et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023
- Multivariate bias correction and downscaling of climate models with trend-preserving deep learning F. Wang & D. Tian 10.1007/s00382-024-07406-9
- When Drought Matters: Changes Within and Outside Protected Areas from the Pantanal Ecoregion N. Smaniotto et al. 10.1007/s13157-024-01800-z
- Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America R. Hamed et al. 10.5194/esd-14-255-2023
- Simulating hydrological extremes for different warming levels–combining large scale climate ensembles with local observation based machine learning models S. Hauswirth et al. 10.3389/frwa.2023.1108108
- Compound climate extremes in China: Trends, causes, and projections Y. Yu et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106675
- Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines H. Goulart et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024
- Tree diversity and social–ecological resilience of agroforestry after volcanic ash deposition in Indonesia R. Sari et al. 10.1007/s11625-023-01400-6
- Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China E. Coughlan de Perez et al. 10.1038/s41612-023-00361-y
- The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns L. Huzsvai et al. 10.3390/su16103962
- Towards a Disaster Risk Management Pathways Framework for Complex and Dynamic Multi-Risk: DAPP-MR J. Schlumberger et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4164233
- Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events B. van den Hurk et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500
- Critical water contents at leaf, stem and root level leading to irreversible drought‐induced damage in two woody and one herbaceous species P. Trifilò et al. 10.1111/pce.14469
- Influence of Regional Temperature Anomalies on Strawberry Yield: A Study Using Multivariate Copula Analysis P. Unnikrishnan et al. 10.3390/su16093523
- A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events A. Bastos et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3
- Changes in crop failures and their predictions with agroclimatic conditions: Analysis based on earth observations and machine learning over global croplands T. Schillerberg & D. Tian 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109620
- Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi‐Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview M. de Brito et al. 10.1029/2023EF003906
- The KNMI Large Ensemble Time Slice (KNMI–LENTIS) L. Muntjewerf et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-4581-2023
- Accounting for Weather Variability in Farm Management Resource Allocation in Northern Ghana: An Integrated Modeling Approach O. Adelesi et al. 10.3390/su15097386
- Consideration of compound drivers and impacts in the disaster risk reduction cycle B. van den Hurk et al. 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106030
- Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate‐related science E. Baulenas et al. 10.1002/gch2.202200183
- Increase of Simultaneous Soybean Failures Due To Climate Change H. Goulart et al. 10.1029/2022EF003106
- Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review M. Baldissera Pacchetti et al. 10.1002/wcc.869
Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather...
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