Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change

Goulart, Henrique M. D.; van der Wiel, Karin; Folberth, Christian; Balkovic, Juraj; van den Hurk, Bart

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Understanding compound weather and climate events and related...

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 4

Research article

|

06 Dec 2021

Research article |

| 06 Dec 2021

Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change

Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk

Data sets

ISIMIP2a Simulation Data from Agricultural Sector, GFZ Data Services A. Arneth, J. Balkovic, P. Ciais, A. de Wit, D. Deryng, J. Elliott, C. Folberth, M. Glotter, T. Iizumi, R. C. Izaurralde, A. D. Jones, N. Khabarov, P. Lawrence, W. Liu, H. Mitter, C. Müller, S. Olin, T. A. M. Pugh, A. D. Reddy, G. Sakurai, E. Schmid, X. Wang, X. Wu, H. Yang, and M. Büchner https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.006

Model code and software

dumontgoulart/agr_cli: DOI for ESD (v1.0.0) H. Goulart https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5748304

Short summary

Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.