Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020
ESD Ideas
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19 Aug 2020
ESD Ideas | Highlight paper |  | 19 Aug 2020

ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments

Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins

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Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales
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Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study
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Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change
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Cited articles

Forster, P. M., Maycock, A. M., McKenna, C. M., and Smith, C. J.: Latest climate models confirm need urgent mitigation, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 7–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0660-0, 2020. 
Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1095–1107, 2009. 
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Policy making on climate change routinely employs socioeconomic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not employed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here, we argue that to enable risk assessments and development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.
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