ESD Ideas: Global climate response  scenarios for IPCC assessments

Sutton, Rowan T.; Hawkins, Ed

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

ESD Ideas

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 3

ESD Ideas

| Highlight paper

|

19 Aug 2020

ESD Ideas | Highlight paper |

| 19 Aug 2020

ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments

Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins

Data sets

ESMValTool (Version v2.0.0b4) B. Andela, B. Brötz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, V., N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, B. Mueller, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, K. Adeniyi, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, P. Berg, L. Bock, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, S. Corti, B. Crezee, E. L. Davin, P. Davini, C. Deser, F. Diblen, D. Docquier, L. Dreyer, C. Ehbrecht, P. Earnshaw, B. Gier, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, J. von Hardenberg, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, L. Lledó, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, B. Little, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, R. Lorenz, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, C. W. Mohr, P. Amarjiit, N. Pérez-Zanón, A. Phillips, J. Russell, M. Sandstad, A. Sellar, D. Senftleben, F. Serva, J. Sillmann, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, and K. Weigel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3759523

Short summary

Policy making on climate change routinely employs socioeconomic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not employed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here, we argue that to enable risk assessments and development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.