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ESD | Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 29 May 2020

Research article | 29 May 2020

Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6

Flavio Lehner et al.

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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: Weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019. 
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P. P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, 2003. 
Allen, M. R. and Tett, S. F. B.: Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting, Clim. Dynam., 15, 419–434, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050291, 1999. 
Barnes, E. A., Hurrell, J. W., and Uphoff, I. E.: Viewing Forced Climate Patterns Through an AI Lens, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13389–13398, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084944, 2019. 
Beusch, L., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: From global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, 2020. 
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Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future...
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