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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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ESD | Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 29 May 2020

Research article | 29 May 2020

Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6

Flavio Lehner et al.

Model code and software

Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive National Center for Atmospheric Research http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/MMLEA/

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Short summary
Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future...
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