316 citations as recorded by crossref.

1. An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles A. Merrifield et al. 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020
2. Temporal and spatial distribution of health, labor, and crop benefits of climate change mitigation in the United States D. Shindell et al. 10.1073/pnas.2104061118
3. An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics P. Monerie et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8
4. Uncertainties in projections of climate extremes indices in South America via Bayesian inference C. Gouveia et al. 10.1002/joc.7650
5. Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems V. Srikrishnan et al. 10.1029/2021EF002644
6. Comparisons Between CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Simulations of Climate Indices Influencing Food Security, Infrastructure Resilience, and Human Health in Canada S. Bourdeau‐Goulet & E. Hassanzadeh 10.1029/2021EF001995
7. Linking climate stressors to ecological processes in ecosystem models, with a case study from the Gulf of Alaska A. Rovellini et al. 10.1093/icesjms/fsae002
8. How Exceptional Was the 2015–2019 Central American Drought? T. Anderson et al. 10.1029/2023GL105391
9. Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network E. Barnes et al. 10.1029/2020MS002195
10. Assessment of CMIP6-Based Future Climate Projections Selected for Impact Studies in Japan M. Hayashi & H. Shiogama 10.2151/sola.2022-016
11. Sensitivity of bias adjustment methods to low-frequency internal climate variability over the reference period: an ideal model study R. Bonnet et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6adc
12. Projections of future precipitation and air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 multimodel ensembles W. Zhang et al. 10.1002/joc.7865
13. Trend Projections of Potential Evapotranspiration in Yangtze River Delta and the Uncertainty L. Ding et al. 10.3390/atmos15030357
14. More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century N. Maher et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w
15. Separating internal and forced contributions to near term SST predictability in the CESM2-LE E. Gordon et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acfdbc
16. Uncertainty assessment of future climate change using bias-corrected high-resolution multi-regional climate model datasets over East Asia C. Park et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-07006-z
17. Recent Multi‐Decadal Southern Ocean Surface Cooling Unlikely Caused by Southern Annular Mode Trends Y. Dong et al. 10.1029/2023GL106142
18. The study of water security evaluation indices under climate change impact K. Zhou 10.2166/ws.2025.036
19. Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human‐Earth Systems P. Reed et al. 10.1029/2021EF002621
20. Incorporating human behaviour into Earth system modelling B. Beckage et al. 10.1038/s41562-022-01478-5
21. Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1 D. Xu et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022
22. Learning the Indicative Patterns of Simulated Force Changes in Soil Moisture by BP Neural Networks and Finding Differences with SMAP Observations X. Li et al. 10.3390/su141811310
23. Interdecadal Pacific oscillation phase dominants near-term global monsoon precipitation changes J. Jiang & T. Zhou 10.1088/1748-9326/add1f8
24. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay M. Lovino et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03012-4
25. A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States E. Siirila-Woodburn et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00219-y
26. Evolution characteristics of extreme maximum temperature events in Central China and adaptation strategies under different future warming scenarios Y. Duan et al. 10.1515/geo-2025-0773
27. Harnessing AI and computing to advance climate modelling and prediction T. Schneider et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01769-3
28. Evaluation of Extreme Temperatures Over Australia in the Historical Simulations of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models X. Deng et al. 10.1029/2020EF001902
29. Variability in Projected North American Mean and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Trends for the 21st Century: Model‐To‐Model Differences Versus Internal Variability M. Kelleher et al. 10.1029/2022EF003161
30. Projections and uncertainty decomposition in CMIP6 models for extreme precipitation scaling rates M. Sothearith & K. Ahn 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133260
31. Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models H. Miao et al. 10.1016/j.renene.2023.05.007
32. Observed and Projected Scaling of Daily Extreme Precipitation with Dew Point Temperature at Annual and Seasonal Scales across the Northeast United Sates S. Steinschneider & N. Najibi 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0183.1
33. Flipping of temperature and precipitation trends over the Indian subcontinent due to diametrically opposing influence of GHGs and aerosols A. Shilin et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4974
34. Compound wind and precipitation extremes at a global scale based on CMIP6 models: Evaluation, projection and uncertainty X. Zhu et al. 10.1002/joc.8281
35. Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes D. Visioni et al. 10.5194/acp-23-663-2023
36. Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations—are they unseen or unrealistic? T. Kelder et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5cf4
37. Aotearoa New Zealand's 21st‐Century Wildfire Climate N. Melia et al. 10.1029/2022EF002853
38. Partitioning climate uncertainty in ecological projections: Pacific oysters in a hotter Europe R. Wilson et al. 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102537
39. Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes D. Gampe et al. 10.5194/esd-15-589-2024
40. Widespread temporal and spatial variability in net ecosystem productivity under climate change H. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.008
41. Evaluation of extreme precipitation climate indices and their projected changes for Brazil: From CMIP3 to CMIP6 F. Jeferson de Medeiros et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100511
42. Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions P. DeRepentigny et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abo2405
43. Quantifying the Uncertainty Sources of Future Climate Projections and Narrowing Uncertainties With Bias Correction Techniques Y. Wu et al. 10.1029/2022EF002963
44. Drivers of uncertainty in future projections of Madden–Julian Oscillation teleconnections A. Jenney et al. 10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021
45. Modeled Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Cover is within Observational Uncertainty C. Wyburn-Powell et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0958.1
46. Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming L. Qiao et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-40641-y
47. Declining ecological resilience and invasion resistance under climate change in the sagebrush region, United States D. Schlaepfer et al. 10.1002/eap.3065
48. Can limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C warming prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought? Y. Ji et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110047
49. Bayesian estimates for changes of the Russian river runoff in the 21st century as based on the CMIP6 model ensemble simulations А. Medvedev et al. 10.31857/S0002351524020021
50. Combined Role of Enso and Iod on Compound Drought and Heatwaves in Australia P. Reddy et al. 10.2139/ssrn.3991876
51. MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses H. Shiogama et al. 10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023
52. A Climate-Informed Approach to Create Hourly Future Weather Timeseries for Power System Planning E. Smith et al. 10.1109/ACCESS.2025.3567864
53. Exploring variability in climate change projections on the Nemunas River and Curonian Lagoon: coupled SWAT and SHYFEM modeling approach N. Čerkasova et al. 10.5194/os-20-1123-2024
54. Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation J. Longmate et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06846-z
55. From Stream Flows to Cash Flows: Leveraging Evolutionary Multi‐Objective Direct Policy Search to Manage Hydrologic Financial Risks A. Hamilton et al. 10.1029/2021WR029747
56. Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models N. Steinert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
57. Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty C. O’Reilly et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7
58. FROT: A Framework to comprehensively describe radiative contributions to temperature responses E. Monteiro et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8807
59. Quantifying the Contribution of Internal Atmospheric Drivers to Near-Term Projection Uncertainty in September Arctic Sea Ice Z. Shen et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0579.1
60. Evaluating historical climate extremes in the FGOALS-g3 large ensemble in the presence of internal climate variability W. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06842-3
61. Model uncertainty in synoptic circulation patterns and precipitation changes in Southern South America using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models M. Olmo et al. 10.1007/s10584-023-03647-5
62. A substantial reduction of total and group-specific population risk to compound heat and drought events in China through achieving carbon neutrality J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.144694
63. Bayesian Estimates of Changes in Russian River Runoff in the 21st Century Based on the CMIP6 Ensemble Model Simulations A. Medvedev et al. 10.1134/S000143382470018X
64. Surface temperature variability in climate models with large and small internal climate variability S. Yeh et al. 10.1002/qj.4112
65. Improving Information-Based Coordinated Operations in Interbasin Water Transfer Megaprojects: Case Study in Southern India S. Veena et al. 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001456
66. A hybrid deep neural operator/finite element method for ice-sheet modeling Q. He et al. 10.1016/j.jcp.2023.112428
67. Managing Financial Risk Trade‐Offs for Hydropower Generation Using Snowpack‐Based Index Contracts A. Hamilton et al. 10.1029/2020WR027212
68. Partitioning the Uncertainties in Compound Hot and Dry Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Runoff Extremes Projections in CMIP6 S. Jha et al. 10.1029/2022EF003315
69. Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability F. Lehner & C. Deser 10.1088/2752-5295/accf30
70. Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections M. Alessi & M. Rugenstein 10.1029/2023GL105795
71. Assessment of the usage of VAT tax as a sustainable and environmentally friendly food policy tool: evidence from Poland A. Zielińska-Chmielewska et al. 10.34659/eis.2023.86.3.578
72. Precipitation variability in CMIP6 climate models across the North Atlantic–European region and their Links to Atmospheric Circulation E. Plavcová et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07556-w
73. Quantifying the uncertainty of internal variability in future projections of seasonal soil moisture droughts over China S. Chen & X. Yuan 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153817
74. Present-day warm pool constrains future tropical precipitation I. Park et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00620-5
75. An Approach for Selecting Observationally-Constrained Global Climate Model Ensembles for Regional Climate Impacts and Adaptation Studies in Canada D. Jeong & A. Cannon 10.1080/07055900.2023.2239194
76. Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future S. Basile et al. 10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6
77. Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss A. Gottlieb & J. Mankin 10.1038/s41586-023-06794-y
78. Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate V. Osypov et al. 10.2166/wcc.2021.034
79. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 C. Tebaldi et al. 10.5194/esd-12-253-2021
80. Assessment of CMIP6 Multi-Model Projections Worldwide: Which Regions Are Getting Warmer and Are Going through a Drought in Africa and Morocco? What Changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6? A. Bouramdane 10.3390/su15010690
81. Projected changes in wet and dry extremes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble over the IGAD region of Eastern Africa P. Omay et al. 10.1007/s44292-024-00016-4
82. Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes S. Stevenson et al. 10.1073/pnas.2108124119
83. Projections of precipitation change from CMIP6 based on a new downscaling method in the Poyang Lake basin, China N. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101138
84. Spatiotemporal analysis of transition probabilities of wet and dry days under SSPs scenarios in the semi-arid Susurluk Basin, Türkiye M. Şan et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168641
85. A revised interpretation of signal-to-noise ratio paradox and its application to constrain regional climate projections Y. Duan & S. Kumar 10.1088/2752-5295/ad3a0c
86. Water-saving irrigated area expansion hardly enhances crop yield while saving water under climate scenarios in China Z. Yue et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02279-0
87. Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability D. Xue et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-39460-y
88. “Certain Uncertainty: The Role of Internal Climate Variability in Projections of Regional Climate Change and Risk Management” C. Deser 10.1029/2020EF001854
89. Alterations in Suitable Cultivation Area for Scutellaria baicalensis under Future Climatic Scenarios in China: Geodetector-Based Prediction Y. Yin et al. 10.3390/agronomy14092065
90. Large ensemble simulations indicate increases in spatial compounding of droughts and hot extremes across multiple croplands in China B. Lv et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104670
91. Can Exploratory Modeling of Water Scarcity Vulnerabilities and Robustness Be Scenario Neutral? J. Quinn et al. 10.1029/2020EF001650
92. Opinion: The scientific and community-building roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) – past, present, and future D. Visioni et al. 10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023
93. Diagnostic Framework for Evaluating How Parametric Uncertainty Influences Agro‐Hydrologic Model Projections of Crop Yields Under Climate Change T. Karimi et al. 10.1029/2021WR031249
94. Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events R. Wood 10.5194/esd-14-797-2023
95. Physically based equation representing the forcing-driven precipitation in climate models D. Lee et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf50f
96. Inter‐Model Differences in Future Summer Onset Over the Northern High Latitudes B. Park et al. 10.1029/2022GL100739
97. Changes of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability During the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age and Associated Causes J. Miao et al. 10.1029/2023JD039966
98. Climate-aware decision-making: lessons for electric grid infrastructure planning and operations A. Brockway et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7815
99. When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble G. Bonan et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00878-w
100. Amplifying exploration of regional climate risks: clustering future projections on regionally relevant impact drivers instead of emission scenarios F. Buskop et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f8f
101. Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality J. East et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8d17
102. The Sources of Uncertainty in the Projection of Global Land Monsoon Precipitation T. Zhou et al. 10.1029/2020GL088415
103. Symmetric and asymmetric response of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall to different ENSO decay phases in observations and CMIP6 models J. Chowdary et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.104000
104. Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change J. León-Muñoz et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100504
105. A Bioeconomic Projection of Climate‐Induced Wildfire Risk in the Forest Sector M. Riviere et al. 10.1029/2021EF002433
106. Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations J. Fyfe et al. 10.1073/pnas.2016549118
107. Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe L. Busschaert et al. 10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022
108. Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal? C. Tebaldi et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ace3da
109. Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought D. Schumacher et al. 10.5194/esd-15-131-2024
110. Bayesian estimates of snow cover area in Eurasia in the 21st century based on the results of calculations with the CMIP6 ensemble of climate models M. Arzhanov et al. 10.31857/S2686739724010198
111. Analyzing Internal Variability and Forced Response of Subdaily and Daily Extreme Precipitation Over Europe R. Wood & R. Ludwig 10.1029/2020GL089300
112. Robust changes to the wettest and driest days of the year are hidden within annual rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study L. Harrington et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad585a
113. Where are the coexisting parallel climates? Large ensemble climate projections from the point of view of chaos theory M. Herein et al. 10.1063/5.0136719
114. Projections of climate change and its impacts based on CMIP6 models—calling attention to quantifying and constraining uncertainty Q. Zhang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adb1f7
115. Projected changes in compound hot-dry events depend on the dry indicator considered P. Hosseinzadehtalaei et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01352-4
116. From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3) L. Beusch et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022
117. Climate change and New Zealand’s groundwater resources: A methodology to support adaptation F. Mourot et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101053
118. Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina B. Tang et al. 10.1007/s00376-023-3158-7
119. Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes E. Elbaum et al. 10.1029/2022GL097725
120. Isolating the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases: A New CESM1 Large Ensemble Community Resource C. Deser et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0123.1
121. Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble Y. Liang et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1
122. The SMHI Large Ensemble (SMHI-LENS) with EC-Earth3.3.1 K. Wyser et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4781-2021
123. Going Beyond the Ensemble Mean: Assessment of Future Floods From Global Multi‐Models I. Giuntoli et al. 10.1029/2020WR027897
124. Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades N. Maher et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02
125. Uncertainties and confidence in stratospheric aerosol injection modelling: a systematic literature review A. Määttänen et al. 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae007
126. Climate change impacts on the Chiffa basin (northern Algeria) using bias-corrected RCM data A. Madani et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1507961
127. Demystifying global climate models for use in the life sciences D. Schoeman et al. 10.1016/j.tree.2023.04.005
128. Recent and near‐term future changes in impacts‐relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world's Mediterranean climate regions R. Seager et al. 10.1002/joc.8551
129. Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO2 physiology and deforestation Y. Li et al. 10.1038/s44221-023-00128-y
130. Future Climate Projections and Uncertainty Evaluations for Frost Decay Exposure Index in Norway J. Gaarder et al. 10.3390/buildings14092873
131. Identifying a Pattern of Predictable Decadal North Pacific SST Variability in Historical Observations E. Gordon & N. Diffenbaugh 10.1029/2024GL112729
132. Time-varying changes and uncertainties in the CMIP6 ocean carbon sink from global to local scale P. Gooya et al. 10.5194/esd-14-383-2023
133. Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles R. Wood et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac10dd
134. Bayesian Projections of the Amur and Selenga River Runoff Changes in the 21st Century Based on CMIP6 Model Ensemble Simulations A. Lipavskii et al. 10.3103/S1068373922050065
135. Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers W. Wu et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-17581-y
136. No Internal Connections Detected Between Low Frequency Climate Modes in North Atlantic and North Pacific Basins T. Fenske & A. Clement 10.1029/2022GL097957
137. MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade S. Gaikwad et al. 10.1016/j.future.2024.107512
138. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on rainfall for potential landslide triggering in Japan H. Tsunetaka et al. 10.1002/esp.6050
139. Evolution of the East Asian winter land temperature trends during 1961–2018: role of internal variability and external forcing H. Gong et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abd586
140. Exploring Afro-Asian water fluxes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: Present-day evaluation and future projections T. Adeliyi et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179374
141. Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century H. Shi et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abm3468
142. Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes P. De Luca et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf389
143. Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador S. Núñez Mejía et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101522
144. Uncertainty separation of drought projection in the 21st century using SMILEs and CMIP6 Y. Ji et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130497
145. Quantifying CMIP6 model uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections A. John et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100435
146. Projected Changes and Time of Emergence of Temperature Extremes Over Australia in CMIP5 and CMIP6 X. Deng et al. 10.1029/2021EF002645
147. Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events E. Bevacqua et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5
148. Linking global land surface temperature projections to radiative effects of hydrometeors under a global warming scenario J. Li et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac153c
149. Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels G. Evin et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07323-x
150. High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble M. Sarofim et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9
151. Quantifying the value of stakeholder-elicited information in models of coupled human–water systems S. Sunkara et al. 10.1080/02626667.2024.2437131
152. Tropical atlantic climate biases and DAMIP experiments: insights from CMIP6 models P. Silva et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07253-8
153. The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High‐Frequency Model Output D. Olonscheck et al. 10.1029/2023MS003790
154. Green Public Procurement as a Tool for Sustainable and Secure Food Policy: Evidence from Poland A. Zielińska-Chmielewska et al. 10.47459/jssi.2023.13.8
155. Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
156. Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence L. Brunner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
157. Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses L. Noto et al. 10.1007/s11269-023-03444-w
158. Climate risk-informed decision analysis (CRIDA): ‘top-down’ vs ‘bottom-up’ decision making for planning water resources infrastructure J. Manous & E. Stakhiv 10.2166/wp.2021.243
159. Past the Precipice? Projected Coral Habitability Under Global Heating P. Kalmus et al. 10.1029/2021EF002608
160. Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts Z. Hao et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241
161. Identifying sensitivities in flood frequency analyses using a stochastic hydrologic modeling system A. Newman et al. 10.5194/hess-25-5603-2021
162. Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model A. Rhoades et al. 10.1029/2023MS003793
163. A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs) M. Meinshausen et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
164. Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change J. Zeder & E. Fischer 10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023
165. Bayesian Estimates of the Snow Cover Extent in Eurasia in the 21st Century Based on the Calculations with the CMIP6 Ensemble of Climate Models M. Arzhanov et al. 10.1134/S1028334X23602547
166. The difference in the uncertainty sources between future projections of mean and extreme precipitation over East Asia A. Juzbašić et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ae
167. Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed F. Maina et al. 10.5194/hess-26-3589-2022
168. Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales G. Meehl et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x
169. STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations C. Tebaldi et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022
170. Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States R. Harp et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ada17c
171. Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends S. Schlunegger et al. 10.1029/2019GB006453
172. Uncertainty analysis of global meteorological drought in CMIP6 projections Q. Niu et al. 10.1007/s10584-025-03919-2
173. Substantially increased risk of elderly to compound heat and drought events in coastal China under 1.5 °C–3.0 °C warming scenarios J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105575
174. Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales C. Gallo et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023
175. Depth‐Duration‐Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events Under Internal Climate Variability: Indian Summer Monsoon D. Upadhyay et al. 10.1029/2020JD034193
176. A 21st century shift in the mechanisms of the early-winter United States snowfall variability S. Liu & S. Hu 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4e4d
177. Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines A. Liné et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2
178. Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter‐Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity A. Karpechko et al. 10.1029/2022JD036992
179. Stronger Arctic amplification from anthropogenic aerosols than from greenhouse gases Y. Wu et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00696-0
180. Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation L. Dong et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-26797-5
181. Combined role of ENSO and IOD on compound drought and heatwaves in Australia using two CMIP6 large ensembles P. Reddy et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100469
182. Impact of regional climate change on the mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in a tropical island environment: La Réunion K. Lamy et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162484
183. Detection Time for Nonstationary Reservoir System Performance Driven by Climate and Land-Use Change M. Chen & J. Herman 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6184
184. A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia M. Hariadi et al. 10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024
185. Assessment of dry and heavy rainfall days and their projected changes over Northeast Brazil in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models F. de Medeiros & C. de Oliveira 10.1002/joc.7759
186. Increasing precipitation whiplash in climate change hotspots D. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aca3b9
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189. Internal variability plays a dominant role in global climate projections of temperature and precipitation extremes M. Blanusa et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06664-3
190. Introducing the MESMER-M-TPv0.1.0 module: spatially explicit Earth system model emulation for monthly precipitation and temperature S. Schöngart et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024
191. Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022GL102124
192. Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability K. Tokarska et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abaf1b
193. Disentangling the Sources of Uncertainties in the Projection of Flood Risk Across the Central United States (Iowa) A. Michalek et al. 10.1029/2023GL105852
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195. Climate nowcasting A. Gettelman et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/adc327
196. Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty Y. Wu et al. 10.1029/2022GL100745
197. Uncertainties in wave-driven longshore sediment transport projections presented by a dynamic CMIP6-based ensemble A. Zarifsanayei et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1188136
198. Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe F. von Trentini et al. 10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020
199. Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Yield and Debris‐Flow Activity in an Alpine Catchment J. Hirschberg et al. 10.1029/2020JF005739
200. Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic A. Hochet et al. 10.1029/2022GL102348
201. Optimization configuration strategy for regional energy systems based on multiple uncertainties and demand response R. Zhao & X. Chen 10.1186/s42162-024-00362-y
202. From compound climate risks to adaptive governance: Sectoral economic exposure to heat-drought compound events in coastal China J. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107755
203. Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability S. Sippel et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abh4429
204. The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections J. Cos et al. 10.5194/esd-13-321-2022
205. Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research F. Lehner 10.1016/j.isci.2024.111113
206. Evaluation of sea surface temperature interhemispheric dipole in CMIP6 historical simulations Q. An et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07455-0
207. Future risk of decadal megadrought events over eastern China based on IPO-constrained precipitation Y. Qin et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-07018-9
208. Quantifying both socioeconomic and climate uncertainty in coupled human–Earth systems analysis J. Morris et al. 10.1038/s41467-025-57897-1
209. Uncertainty in Projection of Climate Extremes: A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 S. Zhang & J. Chen 10.1007/s13351-021-1012-3
210. Future changes in the influence of the NAO on Mediterranean winter precipitation extremes in the EC-Earth3 large Ensemble: The prominent role of internal variability A. Rivosecchi et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107391
211. Diverging Northern Hemisphere Trends in Meteorological Versus Ecological Indicators of Spring Onset in CMIP6 X. Li et al. 10.1029/2023GL102833
212. Quantifying the Role of Model Internal Year-to-Year Variability in Estimating Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Effects X. Shi & Y. Zeng 10.3390/atmos15010079
213. Future changes in extreme precipitation in central Asia with 1.5–4°C global warming based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations J. Zhang & F. Wang 10.1002/joc.7740
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215. Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system R. Mahmood et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022
216. Quantification of uncertainties in projections of extreme daily precipitation simulated by CMIP6 GCMs over homogeneous regions of India M. Nair et al. 10.1002/joc.8269
217. A modeling framework to understand historical and projected ocean climate change in large coupled ensembles Y. Silvy et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-7683-2022
218. Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models A. Snyder et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024
219. Projections of Global Land Runoff Changes and Their Uncertainty Characteristics During the 21st Century C. Miao et al. 10.1029/2022EF003286
220. How does bias correction impact simulated drought characteristics by Regional Climate Models? P. Nguyen-Ngoc-Bich et al. 10.1007/s10584-025-03901-y
221. Future projections of the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration based on NEX-GDDP CMIP6 simulations L. Song et al. 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106227
222. Dynamic Adaptation of Water Resources Systems Under Uncertainty by Learning Policy Structure and Indicators J. Cohen & J. Herman 10.1029/2021WR030433
223. Near-term prediction of surface temperature extremes over India in the CMIP6-DCPP models G. Konda et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07472-z
224. Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate A. Schurer et al. 10.5194/cp-19-943-2023
225. A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events A. Bastos et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3
226. Risk-based hydrologic design under climate change using stochastic weather and watershed modeling G. Shabestanipour et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1310590
227. Evaluating wind and solar complementarity in China: Considering climate change and source-load matching dynamics Z. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133485
228. Projections of Greenland climate change from CMIP5 and CMIP6 Q. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104340
229. Constraining Decadal Variability Yields Skillful Projections of Near‐Term Climate Change R. Mahmood et al. 10.1029/2021GL094915
230. Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula H. Sung et al. 10.3390/jmse9101094
231. Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates C. Tebaldi et al. 10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021
232. AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
233. The importance of internal climate variability in climate impact projections K. Schwarzwald & N. Lenssen 10.1073/pnas.2208095119
234. Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations R. Hébert et al. 10.1038/s41561-022-01056-4
235. Understanding the surface temperature response and its uncertainty to CO2, CH4, black carbon, and sulfate K. Nordling et al. 10.5194/acp-21-14941-2021
236. Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts J. Ekolu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131679
237. Projections of Future Air Quality Are Uncertain. But Which Source of Uncertainty Is Most Important? R. Doherty et al. 10.1029/2022JD037948
238. Global rainbow distribution under current and future climates K. Carlson et al. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102604
239. Internal variability in multidecadal trends of surface air temperature over antarctica in austral winter in model simulations Y. Wang et al. 10.1007/s00382-020-05412-1
240. Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations E. Bevacqua et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5
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242. Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence A. Ciavarella et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w
243. Identical hierarchy of physical drought types for climate change signals and uncertainty P. Hosseinzadehtalaei et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100573
244. Arctic amplification, and its seasonal migration, over a wide range of abrupt CO2 forcing Y. Liang et al. 10.1038/s41612-022-00228-8
245. Effects of macro vs. micro initialization and ocean initial-condition memory on the evolution of ensemble spread in the CESM2 large ensemble C. Deser et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07553-z
246. Decomposing the Precipitation Response to Climate Change in Convection Allowing Simulations Over the Conterminous United States B. Wallace et al. 10.1029/2023EA003094
247. Northwestward advance of the northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon over the 21st century in CMIP6 projections B. Wu et al. 10.1002/joc.8062
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251. Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia Y. Chai et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7
252. Arctic Warming Revealed by Multiple CMIP6 Models: Evaluation of Historical Simulations and Quantification of Future Projection Uncertainties Z. Cai et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0791.1
253. Stand‐scale climate change impacts on forests over large areas: transient responses and projection uncertainties N. Huber et al. 10.1002/eap.2313
254. Downscaling and uncertainty analysis of future concurrent long-duration dry and hot events in China Y. Yang & J. Tang 10.1007/s10584-023-03481-9
255. Temperature and Precipitation Change over South China in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models: Historical Simulation and Future Projection D. Peng et al. 10.1007/s00376-024-4375-4
256. Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change W. Wieder et al. 10.1073/pnas.2202393119
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258. Projections of the North Atlantic warming hole can be constrained using ocean surface density as an emergent constraint I. Park & S. Yeh 10.1038/s43247-024-01269-y
259. Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century K. Holube et al. 10.5194/tc-16-315-2022
260. Revisiting the Potential to Narrow Model Uncertainty in the Projections of Arctic Runoff E. Dutot & H. Douville 10.1029/2023GL104039
261. Near-term temperature extremes in Iran using the decadal climate prediction project (DCPP) N. Asadi-RahimBeygi et al. 10.1007/s00477-023-02579-x
262. Growing Threats From Unprecedented Sequential Flood‐Hot Extremes Across China Z. Liao et al. 10.1029/2021GL094505
263. Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature P. Waidelich et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-01990-8
264. Resilient California Water Portfolios Require Infrastructure Investment Partnerships That Are Viable for All Partners A. Hamilton et al. 10.1029/2021EF002573
265. Separating internal and externally forced contributions to global temperature variability using a Bayesian stochastic energy balance framework M. Schillinger et al. 10.1063/5.0106123
266. Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant T. Zhou et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acb58d
267. Natural climate variability is an important aspect of future projections of snow water resources and rain-on-snow events M. Schirmer et al. 10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022
268. Uncertainty Decomposition to Understand the Influence of Water Systems Model Error in Climate Vulnerability Assessments S. Steinschneider et al. 10.1029/2022WR032349
269. Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing I. Park et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7
270. Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations L. Borchert et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5
271. Bioenergy Crops for Low Warming Targets Require Half of the Present Agricultural Fertilizer Use W. Li et al. 10.1021/acs.est.1c02238
272. Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera A. Rhoades et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01518-y
273. Variability and Changes in Temperature, Precipitation and Snow in the Desaguadero-Salado-Chadileuvú-Curacó Basin, Argentina G. Müller & M. Lovino 10.3390/cli11070135
274. New Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Projections by Combining Physical and Socio‐Economic Constraints F. Lehner et al. 10.1029/2023AV000887
275. HYPERDIFFERENTIAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE CONTEXT OF BAYESIAN INFERENCE APPLIED TO ICE-SHEET PROBLEMS W. Reese et al. 10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2023047605
276. Critical analysis ofCMIPspast climate model projections in a regional context: The Iberian climate P. Soares et al. 10.1002/joc.7973
277. Changes in March mean snow water equivalent since the mid-20th century and the contributing factors in reanalyses and CMIP6 climate models J. Räisänen 10.5194/tc-17-1913-2023
278. Updated insights on climate change-driven temperature variability across historical and future periods M. Molina et al. 10.1007/s10584-025-03937-0
279. Evaluating the sensitivity of robust water resource interventions to climate change scenarios R. Geressu et al. 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100442
280. CH2018 – National climate scenarios for Switzerland: How to construct consistent multi-model projections from ensembles of opportunity S. Sørland et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100196
281. Interactive influence of ENSO and IOD on contiguous heatwaves in Australia P. Reddy et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3e9a
282. A Multi‐Algorithm Analysis of Projected Changes to Freezing Rain Over North America in an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations C. McCray et al. 10.1029/2022JD036935
283. Reliability of simulating internal precipitation variability over multi‐timescales using multiple global climate model large ensembles in China J. Liu et al. 10.1002/joc.8210
284. Rapid Acceleration of Dangerous Compound Heatwaves and Their Impacts in a Warmer China W. Dong et al. 10.1029/2023GL104850
285. Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023
286. Filtering CMIP6 models in the Euro-Mediterranean based on a circulation patterns approach M. Olmo et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100765
287. Understanding the Contributions of Paleo‐Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California R. Gupta et al. 10.1029/2023EF003909
288. Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) A. Avila-Diaz et al. 10.1007/s41748-022-00337-7
289. Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble N. Maher et al. 10.5194/esd-12-401-2021
290. A drier than expected future, supported by near-surface relative humidity observations H. Douville & K. Willett 10.1126/sciadv.ade6253
291. Future changes of socioeconomic exposure to potential landslide hazards over mainland China D. Li et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100731
292. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates C. McKenna et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9
293. A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe C. Deser & A. Phillips 10.5194/npg-30-63-2023
294. Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming R. Yu et al. 10.1029/2022EF003413
295. Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset A. Bauer et al. 10.1007/s10584-024-03724-3
296. The signature of internal variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle G. Bonan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abd6a9
297. Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6 J. Coburn & S. Pryor 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0359.1
298. A Comparison of Regional Climate Projections With a Range of Climate Sensitivities C. Barnes et al. 10.1029/2023JD038917
299. Emergent Constraints on the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Regional Hydroclimate: Do They Still Work in CMIP6 and How Much Can They Actually Constrain the Future? I. Simpson et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0055.1
300. Mapping the probability of forest fire hazard across the European Alps under climate change scenarios K. Gerberding & U. Schirpke 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124600
301. Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change H. de Vries et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06250-z
302. Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6 H. Douglas et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aca91e
303. Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations M. Donat et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463
304. Reduced Ice Loss From Greenland Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection J. Moore et al. 10.1029/2023JF007112
305. Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales T. Laepple et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01299-9
306. Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones H. Murakami et al. 10.1073/pnas.1922500117
307. Trends, intensification, attribution and uncertainty of projected heatwaves in India B. Chowdhury 10.1002/joc.7665
308. A perfect model study on the reliability of the added small-scale information in regional climate change projections G. Lenderink et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06451-6
309. Assessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA A. Bichet et al. 10.1007/s10584-020-02833-z
310. Uncertainty in near-term temperature evolution must not obscure assessments of climate mitigation benefits A. Lanson et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-31425-x
311. Drivers of Dry Day Sensitivity to Increased CO2 H. Douville et al. 10.1029/2023GL103200
312. A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model projections for hydrological impacts in China Y. Lei et al. 10.2166/nh.2023.108
313. Uncertainty in high‐resolution hydrological projections: Partitioning the influence of climate models and natural climate variability J. Moraga et al. 10.1002/hyp.14695
314. Long-term Regional Dynamic Sea Level Changes from CMIP6 Projections B. Ferrero et al. 10.1007/s00376-020-0178-4
315. Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations D. Huard et al. 10.1029/2022EF002715
316. Fast adjustment versus slow SST-mediated response of daily precipitation statistics to abrupt 4xCO2 H. Douville & A. John 10.1007/s00382-020-05522-w