Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, 2018
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, 2018

Research article 15 Aug 2018

Research article | 15 Aug 2018

A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra

Related authors

Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750,,, 2020
Short summary
ESD Reviews: Thermodynamic optimality in Earth sciences. The missing constraints in modeling Earth system dynamics?
Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Stan Schymanski, Benjamin Dewals, Femke Nijsse, Maik Renner, Henk Dijkstra, Hisashi Ozawa, Hubert Savenije, Han Dolman, Antoon Meesters, and Erwin Zehe
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,,, 2019
Publication in ESD not foreseen
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196,,, 2021
Short summary
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149,,, 2021
Short summary
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258,,, 2020
Short summary
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132,,, 2020
Short summary
Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049,,, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232,, 2002. a
Boe, J., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341–343, 2009. a
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: On the Robustness of Emergent Constraints Used in Multimodel Climate Change Projections of Arctic Warming, J. Climate, 26, 669–678, 2013. a, b, c, d
Budyko, M. I.: The effect of solar variations on the climate of the Earth, Tellus, 7, 611–619,, 1969. a
Caldwell, P. M., Bretherton, C. S., Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Santer, B. D., and Sanderson, B. M.: Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1803–1808, 2014. a
Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of emergent constraints uses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
Final-revised paper