Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Research article
 | 
15 Aug 2018
Research article |  | 15 Aug 2018

A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra

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Latest update: 21 Feb 2025
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Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of emergent constraints uses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
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