A mathematical approach to understanding  emergent constraints

Nijsse, Femke J. M. M.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 3

Research article

|

15 Aug 2018

Research article |

| 15 Aug 2018

A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra

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Final revised paper (published on 15 Aug 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 23 Apr 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of « A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints » by F. Nijsse and H. Dijkstra', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 May 2018
- AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee RC 1', Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, 07 Jul 2018
RC2: 'Review of the paper by Nijsse and Dijkstra on Emergent Constraints', Valerio Lucarini, 22 Jun 2018
- AC2: 'Response to Referee RC 2 (Valerio Lucarini)', Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, 07 Jul 2018
AC2: 'Response to Referee RC 2 (Valerio Lucarini)', Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, 07 Jul 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Jul 2018) by Andrey Gritsun

AR by Femke J. M. M. Nijsse on behalf of the Authors (20 Jul 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (31 Jul 2018) by Andrey Gritsun

AR by Femke J. M. M. Nijsse on behalf of the Authors (03 Aug 2018) Manuscript

Short summary

State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of emergent constraints uses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.