Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018

Research article 15 Aug 2018

Research article | 15 Aug 2018

A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra

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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Jul 2018) by Andrey Gritsun
AR by Femke J. M. M. Nijsse on behalf of the Authors (20 Jul 2018)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (31 Jul 2018) by Andrey Gritsun
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Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of emergent constraints uses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
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