Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016
Research article
24 Nov 2016
Research article | 24 Nov 2016

The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model

Doug McNeall et al.

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Preprint under review for ESD
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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G.: Towards a public, standardized, diagnostic benchmarking system for land surface models, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 819–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-819-2012, 2012.
Booth, B. B. B., Jones, C. D., Collins, M., Totterdell, I. J., Cox, P. M., Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Betts, R. A., Harris, G. R., and Lloyd, J.: High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024002, 2012.
Booth, B. B. B., Bernie, D., McNeall, D., Hawkins, E., Caesar, J., Boulton, C., Friedlingstein, P., and Sexton, D. M. H.: Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013.
Bounceur, N., Crucifix, M., and Wilkinson, R. D.: Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 205–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, 2015.
Brynjarsdóttir, J. and O'Hagan, A.: Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy, Inverse Problems, 30, 114007, https://doi.org/10.1088/0266-5611/30/11/114007, 2014.
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We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model. We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon. We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
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