The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model

McNeall, Doug; Williams, Jonny; Booth, Ben; Betts, Richard; Challenor, Peter; Wiltshire, Andy; Sexton, David

doi:10.5194/esd-7-917-2016

Articles | Volume 7, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 4

Research article

|

24 Nov 2016

Research article |

| 24 Nov 2016

The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model

Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton

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Total article views: 5,913 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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XML: 449
Total: 5,913
Supplement: 571
BibTeX: 203
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Views and downloads (calculated since 29 Apr 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Apr 2016	202	14	2	218
May 2016	287	60	6	353
Jun 2016	76	10	1	87
Jul 2016	27	5	1	33
Aug 2016	4	2	0	6
Sep 2016	5	3	1	9
Oct 2016	7	3	1	11
Nov 2016	35	8	0	43
Dec 2016	72	18	4	94
Jan 2017	68	12	3	83
Feb 2017	29	9	5	43
Mar 2017	40	11	9	60
Apr 2017	50	8	10	68
May 2017	51	11	7	69
Jun 2017	46	11	5	62
Jul 2017	46	17	4	67
Aug 2017	25	6	2	33
Sep 2017	27	10	5	42
Oct 2017	24	11	3	38
Nov 2017	28	11	3	42
Dec 2017	19	9	3	31
Jan 2018	22	10	5	37
Feb 2018	47	20	8	75
Mar 2018	45	28	5	78
Apr 2018	40	21	8	69
May 2018	31	13	6	50
Jun 2018	30	12	12	54
Jul 2018	27	13	6	46
Aug 2018	30	22	10	62
Sep 2018	18	8	13	39
Oct 2018	21	14	13	48
Nov 2018	31	14	15	60
Dec 2018	15	4	10	29
Jan 2019	16	12	9	37
Feb 2019	19	3	7	29
Mar 2019	22	9	10	41
Apr 2019	10	2	8	20
May 2019	20	17	10	47
Jun 2019	10	9	9	28
Jul 2019	36	6	9	51
Aug 2019	56	11	14	81
Sep 2019	11	7	6	24
Oct 2019	27	11	8	46
Nov 2019	18	14	6	38
Dec 2019	17	11	8	36
Jan 2020	13	8	12	33
Feb 2020	35	7	1	43
Mar 2020	12	11	3	26
Apr 2020	14	8	1	23
May 2020	22	9	6	37
Jun 2020	48	38	3	89
Jul 2020	35	55	22	112
Aug 2020	16	12	4	32
Sep 2020	25	10	0	35
Oct 2020	20	9	1	30
Nov 2020	25	14	2	41
Dec 2020	22	16	0	38
Jan 2021	29	8	0	37
Feb 2021	24	6	0	30
Mar 2021	25	7	1	33
Apr 2021	18	3	4	25
May 2021	41	16	2	59
Jun 2021	12	9	2	23
Jul 2021	22	13	2	37
Aug 2021	29	12	1	42
Sep 2021	19	17	0	36
Oct 2021	11	35	1	47
Nov 2021	15	24	0	39
Dec 2021	20	12	0	32
Jan 2022	24	10	2	36
Feb 2022	30	8	3	41
Mar 2022	14	8	0	22
Apr 2022	19	14	6	39
May 2022	17	24	1	42
Jun 2022	17	8	1	26
Jul 2022	8	5	0	13
Aug 2022	21	5	2	28
Sep 2022	10	7	1	18
Oct 2022	12	5	2	19
Nov 2022	17	8	2	27
Dec 2022	20	7	2	29
Jan 2023	25	18	0	43
Feb 2023	19	7	2	28
Mar 2023	25	5	1	31
Apr 2023	19	13	1	33
May 2023	32	12	2	46
Jun 2023	44	19	2	65
Jul 2023	20	6	0	26
Aug 2023	42	8	4	54
Sep 2023	74	9	0	83
Oct 2023	227	10	1	238
Nov 2023	206	3	0	209
Dec 2023	21	8	1	30
Jan 2024	21	9	0	30
Feb 2024	22	14	2	38
Mar 2024	20	10	5	35
Apr 2024	28	7	9	44
May 2024	23	9	3	35
Jun 2024	32	14	2	48
Jul 2024	37	15	6	58
Aug 2024	64	9	3	76
Sep 2024	16	9	2	27
Oct 2024	25	9	1	35
Nov 2024	22	1	3	26
Dec 2024	8	6	1	15
Jan 2025	28	8	4	40
Feb 2025	49	6	3	58
Mar 2025	25	9	1	35
Apr 2025	57	13	1	71
May 2025	50	12	0	62
Jun 2025	61	15	0	76
Jul 2025	38	26	4	68
Aug 2025	52	21	2	75
Sep 2025	48	14	1	63
Oct 2025	32	33	2	67
Nov 2025	5	4	0	9

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 29 Apr 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Apr 2016	202	14	2	218
May 2016	287	60	6	353
Jun 2016	76	10	1	87
Jul 2016	27	5	1	33
Aug 2016	4	2	0	6
Sep 2016	5	3	1	9
Oct 2016	7	3	1	11
Nov 2016	35	8	0	43
Dec 2016	72	18	4	94
Jan 2017	68	12	3	83
Feb 2017	29	9	5	43
Mar 2017	40	11	9	60
Apr 2017	50	8	10	68
May 2017	51	11	7	69
Jun 2017	46	11	5	62
Jul 2017	46	17	4	67
Aug 2017	25	6	2	33
Sep 2017	27	10	5	42
Oct 2017	24	11	3	38
Nov 2017	28	11	3	42
Dec 2017	19	9	3	31
Jan 2018	22	10	5	37
Feb 2018	47	20	8	75
Mar 2018	45	28	5	78
Apr 2018	40	21	8	69
May 2018	31	13	6	50
Jun 2018	30	12	12	54
Jul 2018	27	13	6	46
Aug 2018	30	22	10	62
Sep 2018	18	8	13	39
Oct 2018	21	14	13	48
Nov 2018	31	14	15	60
Dec 2018	15	4	10	29
Jan 2019	16	12	9	37
Feb 2019	19	3	7	29
Mar 2019	22	9	10	41
Apr 2019	10	2	8	20
May 2019	20	17	10	47
Jun 2019	10	9	9	28
Jul 2019	36	6	9	51
Aug 2019	56	11	14	81
Sep 2019	11	7	6	24
Oct 2019	27	11	8	46
Nov 2019	18	14	6	38
Dec 2019	17	11	8	36
Jan 2020	13	8	12	33
Feb 2020	35	7	1	43
Mar 2020	12	11	3	26
Apr 2020	14	8	1	23
May 2020	22	9	6	37
Jun 2020	48	38	3	89
Jul 2020	35	55	22	112
Aug 2020	16	12	4	32
Sep 2020	25	10	0	35
Oct 2020	20	9	1	30
Nov 2020	25	14	2	41
Dec 2020	22	16	0	38
Jan 2021	29	8	0	37
Feb 2021	24	6	0	30
Mar 2021	25	7	1	33
Apr 2021	18	3	4	25
May 2021	41	16	2	59
Jun 2021	12	9	2	23
Jul 2021	22	13	2	37
Aug 2021	29	12	1	42
Sep 2021	19	17	0	36
Oct 2021	11	35	1	47
Nov 2021	15	24	0	39
Dec 2021	20	12	0	32
Jan 2022	24	10	2	36
Feb 2022	30	8	3	41
Mar 2022	14	8	0	22
Apr 2022	19	14	6	39
May 2022	17	24	1	42
Jun 2022	17	8	1	26
Jul 2022	8	5	0	13
Aug 2022	21	5	2	28
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Oct 2022	12	5	2	19
Nov 2022	17	8	2	27
Dec 2022	20	7	2	29
Jan 2023	25	18	0	43
Feb 2023	19	7	2	28
Mar 2023	25	5	1	31
Apr 2023	19	13	1	33
May 2023	32	12	2	46
Jun 2023	44	19	2	65
Jul 2023	20	6	0	26
Aug 2023	42	8	4	54
Sep 2023	74	9	0	83
Oct 2023	227	10	1	238
Nov 2023	206	3	0	209
Dec 2023	21	8	1	30
Jan 2024	21	9	0	30
Feb 2024	22	14	2	38
Mar 2024	20	10	5	35
Apr 2024	28	7	9	44
May 2024	23	9	3	35
Jun 2024	32	14	2	48
Jul 2024	37	15	6	58
Aug 2024	64	9	3	76
Sep 2024	16	9	2	27
Oct 2024	25	9	1	35
Nov 2024	22	1	3	26
Dec 2024	8	6	1	15
Jan 2025	28	8	4	40
Feb 2025	49	6	3	58
Mar 2025	25	9	1	35
Apr 2025	57	13	1	71
May 2025	50	12	0	62
Jun 2025	61	15	0	76
Jul 2025	38	26	4	68
Aug 2025	52	21	2	75
Sep 2025	48	14	1	63
Oct 2025	32	33	2	67
Nov 2025	5	4	0	9

Latest update: 08 Nov 2025

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Short summary

We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model. We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon. We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.