Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
15 Nov 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Nov 2021

Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle

Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina

Related authors

A top-down evaluation of bottom-up estimates to reduce uncertainty in methane emissions from Arctic wetlands
Luana S. Basso, Goran Georgievski, Victor Brovkin, Christian Beer, Christian Rödenbeck, and Mathias Göckede
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4467,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4467, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Projections of coral reef carbonate production from a global climate–coral reef coupled model
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Elodie Bougeot, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Biogeosciences, 22, 4531–4544, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4531-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4531-2025, 2025
Short summary
flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
Short summary
Natural wetland methane emissions simulated by ICON-XPP
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Thomas Kleinen, Tobias Stacke, and Victor Brovkin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3601,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3601, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
High-resolution remote sensing and machine-learning-based upscaling of methane fluxes: a case study in the Western Canadian tundra
Kseniia Ivanova, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Victor Brovkin, Tobias Stacke, Barbara Widhalm, Annett Bartsch, Carolina Voigt, Oliver Sonnentag, and Mathias Göckede
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3968,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3968, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary

Cited articles

Balmaseda, M. A., Dee, D., Vidard, A., and Anderson, D. L. T.: A Multivariate Treatment of Bias for Sequential Data Assimilation: Application to the Tropical Oceans, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 167–179, https://doi.org/10/czgj3m, 2007. a, b, c
Brady, R., Spring, A., Huang, A., Banihirwe, A., and Bell, R.: pangeo-data/climpred: Release v2.1.4 (2.1.4), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5347774, 2021. a
Brady, R. X. and Spring, A.: Climpred: Verification of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Journal of Open Source Software, 6, 2781, https://doi.org/10/gh9646, 2021. a
Brune, S. and Baehr, J.: Preserving the Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Feedback in Initializations of Decadal Climate Predictions, WIREs Clim. Change, 11, e637, https://doi.org/10/ghtnt8, 2020. a
Dunkl, I., Spring, A., Friedlingstein, P., and Brovkin, V.: Process-based analysis of terrestrial carbon flux predictability, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-38, in review, 2021. a, b
Download
Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint