Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021

Research article 15 Nov 2021

Research article | 15 Nov 2021

Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle

Aaron Spring et al.

Data sets

pangeo-data/climpred: Release v2.1.4 (2.1.4) R. Brady, A. Spring, A. Huang, A. Banihirwe, A. and R. Bell https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5347774

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Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
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