Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Research article
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15 Nov 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Nov 2021

Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle

Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina

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Latest update: 29 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
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