Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 3.866 IF 3.866
  • IF 5-year value: 4.135 IF 5-year
    4.135
  • CiteScore value: 7.0 CiteScore
    7.0
  • SNIP value: 1.182 SNIP 1.182
  • IPP value: 3.86 IPP 3.86
  • SJR value: 1.883 SJR 1.883
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 33 Scimago H
    index 33
  • h5-index value: 30 h5-index 30
Volume 8, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1237–1246, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1237–1246, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 20 Dec 2017

Research article | 20 Dec 2017

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Yannick Le Page et al.

Related authors

Analysis fire patterns and drivers with a global SEVER-FIRE v1.0 model incorporated into dynamic global vegetation model and satellite and on-ground observations
Sergey Venevsky, Yannick Le Page, José M. C. Pereira, and Chao Wu
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-89-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-89-2019, 2019
Short summary
Downscaling land use and land cover from the Global Change Assessment Model for coupling with Earth system models
Yannick Le Page, Tris O. West, Robert Link, and Pralit Patel
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3055–3069, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3055-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3055-2016, 2016
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate scenarios
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
Short summary
Differing precipitation response between solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal due to fast and slow components
Anton Laakso, Peter K. Snyder, Stefan Liess, Antti-Ilari Partanen, and Dylan B. Millet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 415–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, 2020
Short summary
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors
Monika J. Barcikowska, Sarah B. Kapnick, Lakshmi Krishnamurty, Simone Russo, Annalisa Cherchi, and Chris K. Folland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 161–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, 2020

Cited articles

Alencar, A., Nepstad, D., and Diaz, M. C. V.: Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and non-ENSO years: area burned and committed carbon emissions, Earth Interact., 10, 1–17, 2006.
Alencar, A. A., Solórzano, L. A., and Nepstad, D. C.: Modeling forest understory fires in an eastern Amazonian landscape, Ecol. Appl., 14, 139–149, 2004.
Alencar, A. A., Brando, P. M., Asner, G. P., and Putz, F. E.: Landscape fragmentation, severe drought, and the new Amazon forest fire regime, Ecol. Appl., 25, 1493–1505, https://doi.org/10.1890/14-1528.1, 2015.
Aragão, L. E. O. C., Malhi, Y., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Saatchi, S., Anderson, L. O., and Shimabukuro, Y. E.: Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028946, 2007.
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci., 110, G02014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JG000042/full, 2005.
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide with droughts, while more humid central and western regions are less affected. Here, we use a fire model to estimate that fire activity could increase by an order of magnitude without climate mitigation. Our results show that avoiding further agricultural expansion can limit fire ignitions but that tackling climate change is essential to insulate the interior Amazon through the 21st century.
Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide...
Citation
Final-revised paper
Preprint