Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
Research article
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20 Dec 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 20 Dec 2017

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

Yannick Le Page, Douglas Morton, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, José Miguel Cardoso Pereira, George Hurtt, and Ghassem Asrar

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Short summary
Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide with droughts, while more humid central and western regions are less affected. Here, we use a fire model to estimate that fire activity could increase by an order of magnitude without climate mitigation. Our results show that avoiding further agricultural expansion can limit fire ignitions but that tackling climate change is essential to insulate the interior Amazon through the 21st century.
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