Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1237-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests
Yannick Le Page
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
Douglas Morton
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Corinne Hartin
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Ben Bond-Lamberty
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
José Miguel Cardoso Pereira
Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
George Hurtt
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Ghassem Asrar
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
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Cited
74 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region A. Ribeiro et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01248-3
- Climate influence on the 2019 fires in Amazonia X. Dong et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148718
- Deforestation-Induced Fragmentation Increases Forest Fire Occurrence in Central Brazilian Amazonia C. Silva Junior et al. 10.3390/f9060305
- Quantifying Post-Fire Changes in the Aboveground Biomass of an Amazonian Forest Based on Field and Remote Sensing Data A. Pontes-Lopes et al. 10.3390/rs14071545
- Fire propensity in Amazon savannas and rainforest and effects under future climate change M. Santana et al. 10.1071/WF21174
- Projections of future forest degradation and CO 2 emissions for the Brazilian Amazon T. Assis et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abj3309
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- Identification of the Urban Dry Islands Effect in Beijing: Evidence from Satellite and Ground Observations Q. Luan et al. 10.3390/rs14040809
- Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon R. Libonati et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-82158-8
- Large Air Quality and Public Health Impacts due to Amazonian Deforestation Fires in 2019 E. Butt et al. 10.1029/2021GH000429
- Assessment of fire hazard in Southwestern Amazon I. Ferreira et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1107417
- Shoot flammability is decoupled from leaf flammability, but controlled by leaf functional traits M. Alam et al. 10.1111/1365-2745.13289
- How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity? C. Park et al. 10.1029/2020EF001786
- The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre K. Melo et al. 10.3390/f15010211
- Substantial Increases in Eastern Amazon and Cerrado Biomass Burning‐Sourced Tropospheric Ozone R. Pope et al. 10.1029/2019GL084143
- South American fires and their impacts on ecosystems increase with continued emissions C. Burton et al. 10.1002/cli2.8
- The Effects of Environmental Changes on Plant Species and Forest Dependent Communities in the Amazon Region D. Brandão et al. 10.3390/f13030466
- In Case of Fire, Escape or Die: A Trait-Based Approach for Identifying Animal Species Threatened by Fire E. Batista et al. 10.3390/fire6060242
- Pre-Columbian Fire Management Linked to Refractory Black Carbon Emissions in the Amazon M. Arienzo et al. 10.3390/fire2020031
- Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene D. Bowman et al. 10.1038/s43017-020-0085-3
- Tree growth and stem carbon accumulation in human-modified Amazonian forests following drought and fire E. Berenguer et al. 10.1098/rstb.2017.0308
- Recent advances and challenges in monitoring and modeling of disturbances in tropical moist forests J. He et al. 10.3389/frsen.2024.1332728
- Wildfire Susceptibility of Land Use and Topographic Features in the Western United States: Implications for the Landscape Management J. Zhai et al. 10.3390/f14040807
- Fire Regime Has a Greater Impact Than Selective Timber Harvesting on Vegetation in a Sub-Tropical Australian Eucalypt Forest T. Lewis et al. 10.3390/f12111478
- The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia P. Brando et al. 10.1126/sciadv.aay1632
- Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers K. McLauchlan et al. 10.1111/1365-2745.13403
- Fire foci and their spatiotemporal relations to weather variables and land uses in the state of Mato Grosso M. Volpato et al. 10.1007/s10668-022-02573-3
- A regional view of the linkages between hydro‐climatic changes and deforestation in the Southern Amazon S. Wongchuig et al. 10.1002/joc.7443
- Climate and land‐use change will lead to a faunal “savannization” on tropical rainforests L. Sales et al. 10.1111/gcb.15374
- Climate change induced risks assessment of a coastal area: A “socioeconomic and livelihood vulnerability index” based study in coastal Bangladesh K. Chowdhury et al. 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.06.005
- Spatial modeling of fire in the atlantic forest considering future climate change scenarios in Rio Grande do Sul state – Brazil P. Herrmann et al. 10.1016/j.jsames.2023.104614
- Fires in the South American Chaco, from dry forests to wetlands: response to climate depends on land cover R. San Martín et al. 10.1186/s42408-023-00212-4
- Tamm Review: Influence of forest management activities on soil organic carbon stocks: A knowledge synthesis M. Mayer et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118127
- Projections of fire probability and ecosystem vulnerability under 21st century climate across a trans-Andean productivity gradient in Patagonia T. Kitzberger et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156303
- Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Ice–Snow Freezing and Its Impact on Subtropical Forest Fires in China X. Wang et al. 10.3390/rs15215118
- Brazilian maize yields negatively affected by climate after land clearing S. Spera et al. 10.1038/s41893-020-0560-3
- Achieving Brazil's Deforestation Target Will Reduce Fire and Deliver Air Quality and Public Health Benefits E. Butt et al. 10.1029/2022EF003048
- Indonesia’s Forestry and Other Land Use Net Sink 2030: How Preparedness Central Sulawesi to Start the Program? W. Simorangkir et al. 10.1088/1755-1315/1357/1/012001
- Characterization of land cover-specific fire regimes in the Brazilian Amazon A. Cano-Crespo et al. 10.1007/s10113-022-02012-z
- Perspectives: Predicting the effects of climate change on ancient woodlands when it interacts with pressures from surrounding land use/land cover H. Schulte to Bühne & N. Pettorelli 10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121236
- Historical (1700–2012) global multi-model estimates of the fire emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) F. Li et al. 10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019
- Machine Learning Model Reveals Land Use and Climate’s Role in Amazon Wildfires: Present and Future Scenarios M. de Santana et al. 10.3390/fire7100338
- The Effects of Tropical Vegetation on Rainfall D. Spracklen et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030136
- Thinner bark increases sensitivity of wetter Amazonian tropical forests to fire A. Staver et al. 10.1111/ele.13409
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- Forest landscape restoration: building on the past for future success J. Stanturf 10.1111/rec.13349
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- Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change M. Jones et al. 10.1029/2020RG000726
- Changes in the surface and atmospheric water budget due to projected Amazon deforestation: Lessons from a fully coupled model simulation S. Wongchuig et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130082
- Fire dynamics in extreme climatic events in western amazon L. da Silva Júnior et al. 10.1016/j.envdev.2019.06.005
- The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation D. Lapola et al. 10.1126/science.abp8622
- Effects of climate and land‐use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon M. Fonseca et al. 10.1111/gcb.14709
- The Role of the Soil Seed Bank in the Recovery and Restoration of a Burned Amazonian Terra Firme Forest V. Oliveira et al. 10.3390/f15091513
- How fire interacts with habitat loss and fragmentation D. Driscoll et al. 10.1111/brv.12687
- Drought-driven wildfire impacts on structure and dynamics in a wet Central Amazonian forest A. Pontes-Lopes et al. 10.1098/rspb.2021.0094
- Looking beyond forest cover: an analysis of landscape-scale predictors of forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon C. Bourgoin et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac31eb
- Mixed-species allometric equations and estimation of aboveground biomass and carbon stocks in restoring degraded landscape in northern Ethiopia M. Mokria et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa495
- Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests M. Longo et al. 10.1029/2020JG005677
- Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories F. Li et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.01.002
- How do intrinsic and extrinsic causes interact in the extinction vulnerability of South American savanna shrub and tree species? E. Maciel et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118256
- Fire probability mapping and prediction from environmental data: What a comprehensive savanna-forest transition can tell us L. Barros-Rosa et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120354
- A Review of the Applications of Remote Sensing in Fire Ecology D. Szpakowski & J. Jensen 10.3390/rs11222638
- Quantifying long-term changes in carbon stocks and forest structure from Amazon forest degradation D. Rappaport et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aac331
- Vegetation ecology with anthropic drivers and consequences G. Malanson et al. 10.1177/0309133321999371
- Empirical Projections of Fire Probability and Ecosystem Vulnerability Under 21st Century Climate Across a Trans-Andean Productivity Gradient in Patagonia T. Kitzberger et al. 10.2139/ssrn.3997711
- Analysis of how the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and their bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers vary across the Amazon rainforest in El Niño and non-El Niño years M. Singh & X. Zhu 10.7717/peerj.12029
- Potential use of rainwater as a tool for fire stations and firefighting: Literature review, environmental and cost assessments I. Martins Vaz et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165510
- Putting fire on the map of Brazilian savanna ecoregions P. Silva et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113098
- Challenges in the conservation and management of legal reserve areas in Brazilian grassland and savanna ecosystems in the face of global climate change W. Tomas et al. 10.1590/s1678-3921.pab2024.v59.03491
- Wildfires in the Arctic and tropical biomes: what is the relative role of climate? J. Engström et al. 10.1007/s11069-022-05452-2
- New Insights From Pre-Columbian Land Use and Fire Management in Amazonian Dark Earth Forests S. Maezumi et al. 10.3389/fevo.2018.00111
- Fire-human-climate interactions in the Bolivian Amazon rainforest ecotone from the Last Glacial Maximum to late Holocene S. Maezumi et al. 10.3389/fearc.2023.1208985
71 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region A. Ribeiro et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01248-3
- Climate influence on the 2019 fires in Amazonia X. Dong et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148718
- Deforestation-Induced Fragmentation Increases Forest Fire Occurrence in Central Brazilian Amazonia C. Silva Junior et al. 10.3390/f9060305
- Quantifying Post-Fire Changes in the Aboveground Biomass of an Amazonian Forest Based on Field and Remote Sensing Data A. Pontes-Lopes et al. 10.3390/rs14071545
- Fire propensity in Amazon savannas and rainforest and effects under future climate change M. Santana et al. 10.1071/WF21174
- Projections of future forest degradation and CO 2 emissions for the Brazilian Amazon T. Assis et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abj3309
- The resilience of Amazon tree cover to past and present drying T. Kukla et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103520
- Identification of the Urban Dry Islands Effect in Beijing: Evidence from Satellite and Ground Observations Q. Luan et al. 10.3390/rs14040809
- Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon R. Libonati et al. 10.1038/s41598-021-82158-8
- Large Air Quality and Public Health Impacts due to Amazonian Deforestation Fires in 2019 E. Butt et al. 10.1029/2021GH000429
- Assessment of fire hazard in Southwestern Amazon I. Ferreira et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1107417
- Shoot flammability is decoupled from leaf flammability, but controlled by leaf functional traits M. Alam et al. 10.1111/1365-2745.13289
- How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity? C. Park et al. 10.1029/2020EF001786
- The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre K. Melo et al. 10.3390/f15010211
- Substantial Increases in Eastern Amazon and Cerrado Biomass Burning‐Sourced Tropospheric Ozone R. Pope et al. 10.1029/2019GL084143
- South American fires and their impacts on ecosystems increase with continued emissions C. Burton et al. 10.1002/cli2.8
- The Effects of Environmental Changes on Plant Species and Forest Dependent Communities in the Amazon Region D. Brandão et al. 10.3390/f13030466
- In Case of Fire, Escape or Die: A Trait-Based Approach for Identifying Animal Species Threatened by Fire E. Batista et al. 10.3390/fire6060242
- Pre-Columbian Fire Management Linked to Refractory Black Carbon Emissions in the Amazon M. Arienzo et al. 10.3390/fire2020031
- Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene D. Bowman et al. 10.1038/s43017-020-0085-3
- Tree growth and stem carbon accumulation in human-modified Amazonian forests following drought and fire E. Berenguer et al. 10.1098/rstb.2017.0308
- Recent advances and challenges in monitoring and modeling of disturbances in tropical moist forests J. He et al. 10.3389/frsen.2024.1332728
- Wildfire Susceptibility of Land Use and Topographic Features in the Western United States: Implications for the Landscape Management J. Zhai et al. 10.3390/f14040807
- Fire Regime Has a Greater Impact Than Selective Timber Harvesting on Vegetation in a Sub-Tropical Australian Eucalypt Forest T. Lewis et al. 10.3390/f12111478
- The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia P. Brando et al. 10.1126/sciadv.aay1632
- Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers K. McLauchlan et al. 10.1111/1365-2745.13403
- Fire foci and their spatiotemporal relations to weather variables and land uses in the state of Mato Grosso M. Volpato et al. 10.1007/s10668-022-02573-3
- A regional view of the linkages between hydro‐climatic changes and deforestation in the Southern Amazon S. Wongchuig et al. 10.1002/joc.7443
- Climate and land‐use change will lead to a faunal “savannization” on tropical rainforests L. Sales et al. 10.1111/gcb.15374
- Climate change induced risks assessment of a coastal area: A “socioeconomic and livelihood vulnerability index” based study in coastal Bangladesh K. Chowdhury et al. 10.1016/j.nhres.2024.06.005
- Spatial modeling of fire in the atlantic forest considering future climate change scenarios in Rio Grande do Sul state – Brazil P. Herrmann et al. 10.1016/j.jsames.2023.104614
- Fires in the South American Chaco, from dry forests to wetlands: response to climate depends on land cover R. San Martín et al. 10.1186/s42408-023-00212-4
- Tamm Review: Influence of forest management activities on soil organic carbon stocks: A knowledge synthesis M. Mayer et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118127
- Projections of fire probability and ecosystem vulnerability under 21st century climate across a trans-Andean productivity gradient in Patagonia T. Kitzberger et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156303
- Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Ice–Snow Freezing and Its Impact on Subtropical Forest Fires in China X. Wang et al. 10.3390/rs15215118
- Brazilian maize yields negatively affected by climate after land clearing S. Spera et al. 10.1038/s41893-020-0560-3
- Achieving Brazil's Deforestation Target Will Reduce Fire and Deliver Air Quality and Public Health Benefits E. Butt et al. 10.1029/2022EF003048
- Indonesia’s Forestry and Other Land Use Net Sink 2030: How Preparedness Central Sulawesi to Start the Program? W. Simorangkir et al. 10.1088/1755-1315/1357/1/012001
- Characterization of land cover-specific fire regimes in the Brazilian Amazon A. Cano-Crespo et al. 10.1007/s10113-022-02012-z
- Perspectives: Predicting the effects of climate change on ancient woodlands when it interacts with pressures from surrounding land use/land cover H. Schulte to Bühne & N. Pettorelli 10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121236
- Historical (1700–2012) global multi-model estimates of the fire emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) F. Li et al. 10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019
- Machine Learning Model Reveals Land Use and Climate’s Role in Amazon Wildfires: Present and Future Scenarios M. de Santana et al. 10.3390/fire7100338
- The Effects of Tropical Vegetation on Rainfall D. Spracklen et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030136
- Thinner bark increases sensitivity of wetter Amazonian tropical forests to fire A. Staver et al. 10.1111/ele.13409
- Protecting Life and Lung: Protected Areas Affect Fine Particulate Matter and Respiratory Hospitalizations in the Brazilian Amazon Biome D. Sheehan et al. 10.1007/s10640-023-00813-2
- Desafios na conservação e no manejo de áreas de reserva legal em ecossistemas campestres e savânicos brasileiros frente às mudanças climáticas globais W. Tomas et al. 10.1590/s1678-3921.pab2024.v59.03491p
- Forest landscape restoration: building on the past for future success J. Stanturf 10.1111/rec.13349
- Impacts of the 1.5 °C global warming target on future burned area in the Brazilian Cerrado P. Silva et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.05.047
- Wildland fire as an atmospheric source of viable microbial aerosols and biological ice nucleating particles R. Moore et al. 10.1038/s41396-020-00788-8
- Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change M. Jones et al. 10.1029/2020RG000726
- Changes in the surface and atmospheric water budget due to projected Amazon deforestation: Lessons from a fully coupled model simulation S. Wongchuig et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130082
- Fire dynamics in extreme climatic events in western amazon L. da Silva Júnior et al. 10.1016/j.envdev.2019.06.005
- The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation D. Lapola et al. 10.1126/science.abp8622
- Effects of climate and land‐use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon M. Fonseca et al. 10.1111/gcb.14709
- The Role of the Soil Seed Bank in the Recovery and Restoration of a Burned Amazonian Terra Firme Forest V. Oliveira et al. 10.3390/f15091513
- How fire interacts with habitat loss and fragmentation D. Driscoll et al. 10.1111/brv.12687
- Drought-driven wildfire impacts on structure and dynamics in a wet Central Amazonian forest A. Pontes-Lopes et al. 10.1098/rspb.2021.0094
- Looking beyond forest cover: an analysis of landscape-scale predictors of forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon C. Bourgoin et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac31eb
- Mixed-species allometric equations and estimation of aboveground biomass and carbon stocks in restoring degraded landscape in northern Ethiopia M. Mokria et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa495
- Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests M. Longo et al. 10.1029/2020JG005677
- Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories F. Li et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.01.002
- How do intrinsic and extrinsic causes interact in the extinction vulnerability of South American savanna shrub and tree species? E. Maciel et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118256
- Fire probability mapping and prediction from environmental data: What a comprehensive savanna-forest transition can tell us L. Barros-Rosa et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120354
- A Review of the Applications of Remote Sensing in Fire Ecology D. Szpakowski & J. Jensen 10.3390/rs11222638
- Quantifying long-term changes in carbon stocks and forest structure from Amazon forest degradation D. Rappaport et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aac331
- Vegetation ecology with anthropic drivers and consequences G. Malanson et al. 10.1177/0309133321999371
- Empirical Projections of Fire Probability and Ecosystem Vulnerability Under 21st Century Climate Across a Trans-Andean Productivity Gradient in Patagonia T. Kitzberger et al. 10.2139/ssrn.3997711
- Analysis of how the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and their bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers vary across the Amazon rainforest in El Niño and non-El Niño years M. Singh & X. Zhu 10.7717/peerj.12029
- Potential use of rainwater as a tool for fire stations and firefighting: Literature review, environmental and cost assessments I. Martins Vaz et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165510
- Putting fire on the map of Brazilian savanna ecoregions P. Silva et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113098
- Challenges in the conservation and management of legal reserve areas in Brazilian grassland and savanna ecosystems in the face of global climate change W. Tomas et al. 10.1590/s1678-3921.pab2024.v59.03491
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Wildfires in the Arctic and tropical biomes: what is the relative role of climate? J. Engström et al. 10.1007/s11069-022-05452-2
- New Insights From Pre-Columbian Land Use and Fire Management in Amazonian Dark Earth Forests S. Maezumi et al. 10.3389/fevo.2018.00111
- Fire-human-climate interactions in the Bolivian Amazon rainforest ecotone from the Last Glacial Maximum to late Holocene S. Maezumi et al. 10.3389/fearc.2023.1208985
Latest update: 01 Nov 2024
Short summary
Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide with droughts, while more humid central and western regions are less affected. Here, we use a fire model to estimate that fire activity could increase by an order of magnitude without climate mitigation. Our results show that avoiding further agricultural expansion can limit fire ignitions but that tackling climate change is essential to insulate the interior Amazon through the 21st century.
Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide...
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